Blue Jays Ex-Files: How deadline departures are faring in stretch run

When the Toronto Blue Jays took a hybrid approach at the Aug. 3 trade deadline, their post-season odds were slim.

The Blue Jays traded significant players with expiring contracts and a top prospect for controllable pieces that could contribute both now and in the future. In the short term, it’s worked, as Brett Bateman, Josh Smith, José Soriano and Spencer Arrighetti have combined for more fWAR (1.9) than Kevin Gausman, Daulton Varsho, Jeff Hoffman and Adam Macko (1.2), and the Blue Jays’ FanGraphs playoff odds have jumped from 5.8 per cent to 32 per cent, thanks to a 20-14 run.

Of course, the players who departed the Blue Jays joined teams that were also eyeing an October push. The longest-tenured and most meaningful outbound star, Gausman, is now backed by a Chicago Cubs offence that has been the best in baseball since the deadline.

The right-handed splitter artist is off to an uneven start in Wrigleyville. He did seem to be finding his form, but then was shelled for six earned runs in his first couple of innings against the Milwaukee Brewers on Wednesday. The Blue Jays and their other outbound players have similarly struggled lately as they simultaneously try to find their footing in the playoff race.

Breakups are sad, but sometimes necessary to move on to better things, and there’s nothing better than meaningful September baseball. Let’s check in on how Toronto’s “exes” are faring with their new clubs during the stretch run.

Kevin Gausman, Chicago Cubs
Since the trade: 7 starts, 5.31 ERA, 39 innings, 44 strikeouts, 10 walks

Gausman’s start on Wednesday night was his shortest since joining the Cubs, and came just as he had started to make a case as an important member of their post-season rotation. He lasted only four innings and was rocked for three home runs in the first 12 batters.

The former Blue Jays ace allowed 11 runs over his first three starts with Chicago (6.19 ERA), but signs suggested his results would return to normal. Over this stretch, he gave up several soft-contact hits; his opponents’ slugging percentage on balls in play exceeded what was expected, based on their exit velocity and launch angle; and he struck out 16 batters and walked just four.

It was unsurprising when his next three starts trended positively. Gausman gave up just six runs over his next 19 innings (2.84 ERA), struck out 22 and walked four, highlighted by seven shutout frames in a win over the Arizona Diamondbacks, who are directly trailing the Cubs in the National League wild-card race.

But it’s been two steps forward and one step back. No fan base is more familiar with Gausman’s work than Toronto’s; they know he hasn’t had his best stuff this season. His fastball velocity, whiff rate and strikeouts are all down and, as a result, his 4.60 ERA is his worst since a disastrous 2019 season, when he had to remake himself.

At times, Gausman has overcome his diminished stuff with command and guile, but he was at his best when he was overpowering hitters with his high-90s fastball and devastating splitter. Those weapons don’t seem to be what they once were, making Gausman’s margin for error razor-thin.

Daulton Varsho, Houston Astros
Since the trade: 32 GP, 4 HR, 13 RBI, .193/.256/.345, 69 wRC+

Varsho had a reputation for extraordinary defence and mashing the odd home run with the Blue Jays, and has roughly met those expectations with the Astros.

His results at the plate have been poor — far worse than his career numbers. But Varsho has been a below-league-average hitter throughout his career (.227 average, .295 OBP, 97 wRC+), and he’s clubbed four home runs in 125 plate appearances with the Astros, roughly a 20-homer pace over a full season that’s right in line with his usual production.

It’s a far cry from the 46-home-run pace Varsho had during his transcendent yet injury-marred 2025 campaign (20 home runs in 71 games). Still, Varsho’s profile as an elite defensive centre fielder who can run into one every once in a while has been good for an average of four wins per season throughout his career.

For that to hold up, Varsho needs to maintain the elite defence that earned him a gold glove and more fielding run value (plus-49) and defensive runs saved (85) than any other outfielder from 2022-25, and he hasn’t this season.

His strong jumps on fly balls have helped maintain his range, but his sprint speed has declined to league average, and he also had a couple of uncharacteristic drops earlier in the season with the Jays. That’s sure to come around to some degree, and it already has with the Astros. But it’s all amounted to a pedestrian plus-four fielding run value and minus-one defensive runs saved, limiting Varsho’s value.

Jeff Hoffman, Minnesota Twins
Since the trade: 13 appearances, 3.00 ERA, 6 holds, 12 innings, 17 strikeouts, 7 walks

Of all Toronto’s departures, Hoffman has performed the best since being shipped out. Also, unlike Gausman and Varsho, he has one more year of control remaining on his contract in 2027.

But despite his undeniable talent and bizarrely bad luck (or perhaps because of it), Hoffman became a change-of-scenery candidate. His 25 per cent strikeout minus walk rate is a top-10 mark among qualified relievers, and his .376 BABIP is first.

It appears the grass really is greener in Minnesota, as Hoffman’s BABIP has dropped to a still-high but more normal .321 and not a single fly ball he’s allowed has left the yard. He’s settled in nicely to a setup role behind Twins closer Yoendrys Gomez, despite striking out fewer batters and walking more than he did with the Blue Jays.

He’s still had a couple of small blow-ups, allowing a few runs to score to break ties with the Brewers and San Diego Padres, but otherwise it’s been smooth sailing.

Adam Macko, Texas Rangers
Since the trade: 6 appearances, 5.68 ERA, 6.1 innings, 7 strikeouts, 2 walks

Macko made only 22 appearances with the Blue Jays this season, but was still a fan favourite because of his Canadian roots.

Acquired along with Erik Swanson from the Seattle Mariners for Teoscar Hernandez just after the 2022 season, Macko’s rise through the Blue Jays’ minor-league system was monitored closely in Canadian baseball circles that had been tracking his progress since he was a standout at the Vauxhall Academy of Baseball in Alberta.

The 25-year-old Slovakian-Canadian was called up on May 15, got off to a strong start with the Blue Jays, and eventually received another shot post-trade when the Rangers recalled him on Aug. 28. The left-hander hasn’t performed as well in his brief time in the Lone Star State, but still has plenty of potential to develop into a useful arm in the future.

Arjun Nimmala, Los Angeles Angels
Since the trade: 24 GP, 5 HR, 12 RBI, .231/.375/.462, 128 wRC+

Nimmala was the most surprising player dealt by the Blue Jays on deadline day, as moving their No. 2-ranked prospect per MLB Pipeline signalled that Toronto wasn’t strictly selling despite its narrow chance of making the post-season.

Nimmala has picked right up with the Angels’ double-A affiliate, the Rocket City Trash Pandas, since he was traded with fellow minor-leaguers Eddie Micheletti Jr. and Angel Rivero, for Soriano. It’s an aptly named destination considering the way the 20-year-old shortstop has been blasting off at the plate.

He scalded two doubles and walked twice in his second game with the Madison, Ala.-based club and has only continued to heat up. Nimmala has four home runs in his last eight games, including an inside-the-parker.

The Blue Jays haven’t often been burned by trading highly touted prospects, with Simeon Woods Richardson, Austin Martin, Gunnar Hoglund and Jordan Groshans failing to pan out so far. But bearing in mind Nimmala’s outstanding performance and his No. 38 ranking in MLB Pipeline‘s top 100, he has a good chance of developing into an impactful big leaguer.