Blue Jays still need more power from George Springer

George Springer’s spectacular 2025 season was always going to be a tough act to follow, but the 36-year-old’s encore has been underwhelming on the whole.

That last qualifier is important because while the designated hitter’s overall production (a .223/.314/.379 line for a 96 wRC+) has been indisputably disappointing, he’s been on an upwards trajectory lately.

Now two-and-a-half months removed from breaking his toe, Springer has a 125 wRC+ in June. That’s a ways away from what he managed last year (166), but it’s much closer to what the Toronto Blue Jays want to see from their leadoff man.

Getting better production from the top of the order will be critical to improving the Blue Jays’ offence, but a closer look at Springer’s bounce back shows both positive signals and red flags. The biggest bright spot is notably improved swing decisions — even if Wednesday night’s pair of called strikeouts wasn’t the best showcase for that.

One of the biggest drivers of the veteran’s success in 2025 was a career-low chase rate (20.5 per cent) that put him in the 93rd percentile leaguewide. Not only did that help Springer post a healthy walk rate (11.8 per cent), it also consistently kept him in favourable counts where he was positioned to deliver aggressive swings and extra-base power. Early in 2026, he got away from that precise approach, but it has rebounded significantly in recent weeks.

This is encouraging for Springer, and his renewed commitment to patience is likely to serve him well as the season progresses, particularly when it comes to drawing free passes. Unfortunately for the designated hitter, the other benefit of strict plate discipline — forcing pitchers into the zone to improve power output hasn’t been felt yet.

While Springer’s power production has climbed a bit from his rough start, most measures show a player whose contact quality hasn’t meaningfully improved as the season has progressed:

The version of Springer the Blue Jays are getting now is more of a traditional leadoff hitter. The overall output is strong, not truly elite like in 2025, but in line with expectations for a guy who turns 37 this year. 

Before the 2026 season, ZiPS projected a .256/.341/.432 for Springer, good for a 118 wRC+. Inside the Blue Jays organization, expectations were likely higher, and to be fair, a player who has an elite offensive season at 35 after multiple years of decline is pretty hard to project. So, whether what Springer is doing this month meets expectations or not is open to some interpretation. It’s certainly a massive improvement from the first third of the season, when his production was below-average across the board, and his fWAR was below zero.

The question for the Springer and the Blue Jays is how high his ceiling can be this season. Is he going to be a solid leadoff hitter who consistently gets on base, or will the power come around? What we’ve seen in June suggests he can be the kind of player that manager John Schneider is happy to have in his lineup every day, but there’s a difference between that and an impact bat. A salient example of that idea is Vladimir Guerrero Jr., who has a .360 OBP and is an above-average hitter by wRC+ (103) this season. Those numbers are fine for many players, but in the context of his expected contributions, his 2026 campaign has been a significant disappointment.

If Springer’s contact doesn’t get louder this season, he’ll be a complementary piece rather than a driving force for the Blue Jays’ offence. An adjustment to bring out the thump may be around the corner, but he’s also at an age where gifts are more likely to desert him than come back — and losing some bat speed over the course of this season isn’t a good omen.

The catch here is that almost everything said above about Springer’s declining power and possible offensive ceiling could’ve accurately described his prognosis heading into 2025. This SLG chart is a pretty good reminder of how that went:

For now, the Blue Jays can be satisfied that Springer has his approach in order and with it, he’s establishing himself as a notable offensive contributor rather than a lineup anchor. If he’s going to get anywhere near the star hitter status he reclaimed in 2025, the power will have to return, too, and that is up in the air.