Cavaliers vs. Pistons NBA Playoffs series pick with Detroit favored at -3.5

The NBA Playoffs had their second round begin Monday. We were treated to two games, and one was significantly better than the other. That probably should be the expectation for Tuesday’s slate as well. Regardless of how the game goes, if we can cash some betting slips, that’s really the main goal here. I expect the Cavaliers vs. Pistons to be a more entertaining game tonight, and I have a bet for us on the game.

The Cleveland Cavaliers had a bit of a makeover this season, but the first round of the playoffs was essentially the same outcome they’ve always had. They exchanged Darius Garland for James Harden and Dennis Schroder. That didn’t happen in the same trade, but it did give the team a new look after starting the year with Garland, Lonzo Ball and DeAndre Hunter. This team will only go as far as Harden and Donovan Mitchell will take it.

Cleveland Cavaliers All-Stars Donovan Mitchell and James Harden talk during Game 2 in the first round of the 2026 NBA Playoffs vs. the Toronto Raptors at Rocket Mortgage FieldHouse in Ohio. (David Dermer/Imagn Images)

In the first round, the Cavaliers looked like a really bad team. They won four games at home and lost all three road games. In fairness to them, they had at least two of those games in Toronto that were winnable. While they won games at home, they didn’t exactly dominate the Raptors. Game 7 was fairly sweat free, with a 12-point win, but they were fortunate not to have Brandon Ingram suit up for Toronto. I see both Evan Mobley and Harden as the keys to winning this series for the Cavaliers.

The Detroit Pistons were given a bit of a wake-up call. They came into the playoffs as the No. 1 seed in the Eastern Conference, but they looked anything but the part of a dominant team in the opening round. They hosted the Magic and lost the opener. Then they lost two of the next three games, going down 3-1 in the series. They won, as expected in Game 5 at home, but Game 6 was wild. They were down and looked out of it in the second half. The Magic scored just 19 points in the second half, and Detroit forced Game 7.

Detroit Pistons guard Cade Cunningham dribbles the ball while Indiana Pacers guard Ethan Thompson defends during the second half at Gainbridge Fieldhouse in Indianapolis, Ind., on April 12, 2026. (Trevor Ruszkowski/Imagn Images)

In Game 7, the Pistons locked in and were in control from the tip. It was an epic collapse from the Magic, and probably a disaster that cost their coach his job. The Pistons ended up winning by 22. They extended their coach as a result. Interestingly enough, JB Bickerstaff, the coach, was fired by Cleveland in part due to a lack of playoff success. He should be very familiar with the Cavs players and their strengths and weaknesses. I’d expect him to be an X-factor if he can exploit the weaknesses.

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In this series, you have to expect that Mitchell and Cade Cunningham will cancel each other out from a scoring perspective. Jarrett Allen and Mobley will provide a great variety of defense for Jalen Duren. The Pistons’ advantage will be Tobias Harris. For the Cavaliers, Mobley will be a tough matchup. Harden is also a guy who might be able to get some mismatches.

Cade Cunningham of the Detroit Pistons smiles after the game against the Toronto Raptors at Little Caesars Arena in Detroit, Mich., on Dec. 30, 2023. (Chris Schwegler/NBAE)

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This is the tightest series in terms of pricing, with the Pistons being slight favorites. Three of the four games were very tight in the regular season, with all three being decided by four or fewer points. They both won two games, one on the road and one at home. I don’t expect this to be a defensive series. It isn’t the game either of them really wants to play. I think the Pistons are locked in, though. I haven’t seen much that’s great from the Cavaliers on the road in the playoffs. Give me the Pistons -3.5 here.

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