CBS Sports Says Oddsmakers Are Wrong about the Vikings

Sportsbooks believe the Minnesota Vikings will win 8.5 games in 2026, and if that sounds familiar, it’s because that particular forecast has basically followed Minnesota for eight straight summers. But according to CBS Sports, Vegas is overlooking the Vikings, while overrating the Green Bay Packers.

It’s a rare bit of enthusiasm for Minnesota from a national media outlet.

The Vikings Get Rare Backing from CBS Sports

Jordan Dajani: Pick the Over for Vikings

Dajani of CBS Sports assessed the entirety of the NFC North, speaking highly of the Vikings, who are expected to finish in last place inside the division, according to live betting odds.

“Kyler Murray will have some fantastic weapons to work with, including Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, T.J. Hockenson and Jauan Jennings. I believe Jennings is one of the most underrated signings of the entire offseason, so don’t get me started on him,” Dajani began.

“He ranked second on the 49ers in receptions and receiving yards over the past two seasons and led the team in red-zone targets (34), fourth-quarter targets (50) and third-down targets (69) during that span. He’s also an elite run blocker and doesn’t drop the football. Thanks for entertaining my rant. Murray now also has the backing of a Brian Flores-led defense, which he didn’t have in Arizona.”

During his time in Arizona — 2019 to 2025 — the Cardinals ranked eighth-worst in the NFL per EPA/Play.

Dajani continued, “The Vikings did lose Javon Hargrave, Jonathan Allen and Jonathan Greenard on the defensive front, but I like some of the additions they made in the draft, including linebacker Jake Golday, defensive tackle Domonique Orange and safety Jakobe Thomas.”

“The Vikings hit the over on this line last year thanks to a five-game winning streak to end the season. Do we really see Minnesota getting worse? Verdict: Over 8.5 wins.”

Probably a Safe Bet

All of Dajani’s logic checks out; it’s not far-fetched. In short, the Vikings were a nine-win team last year — already beating the 8.5-win forecast with a similar roster, sans Greenard to Philadelphia — and have upgraded the quarterback spot with Murray.

The defense is Minnesota’s calling card for now, as the enterprise changed when Brian Flores arrived in 2023. The unit struggled during Kevin O’Connell’s first year with Ed Donatell calling the shots, but turned it around immediately when Flores walked through the doors in Eagan.

Pairing Murray with a Top 3 defense — Murray is accustomed to average or poor defenses in Arizona — should be the special sauce to top 8.5 wins. In his career, Murray has a better EPA+CPOE than Baker Mayfield, Trevor Lawrence, Daniel Jones, and C.J. Stroud. If you can imagine Mayfield or Lawrence under center for the Vikings, that’s basically what Murray will bring per efficiency.

Kevin O’Connell Due for a Playoff Win

O’Connell took over the Vikings in 2022 and has led the team to the NFL’s fifth-best win percentage in four seasons. Two of his seasons — 2023 and 2025 — were ruined by QB1 injuries, but even during those campaigns, O’Connell stabilized operations enough for Minnesota to find 16 total wins.

Yet, with the fifth-best win percentage, the man has not won a playoff game. Very few NFL head coaches see a fifth year without a postseason triumph; O’Connell snuck through.

Before too long, he must win a playoff game or risk hot-seat whispers. Winning regular season games only goes so far. The Vikings haven’t won a playoff game since 2019 — the day Kirk Cousins and Kyle Rudolph walked off the Saints in overtime down in New Orleans.

Bullish on the Lions

Dajani was also high on the last-place Detroit Lions, noting, “The Lions have plenty going for them. Quarterback Jared Goff has led the NFL in passing yards and passing touchdowns over the past four seasons. Running back Jahmyr Gibbs has scored more touchdowns in his first three seasons than any player in NFL history.”

“Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jameson Williams and Sam LaPorta provide a great supporting cast. Detroit traded running back David Montgomery to Houston, but I think Isiah Pacheco is going to play a fun role in this offense with his maniacal running style.”

Pound for pound, the talent of the Lions’ depth chart suggests it’s closer to first place in the NFC North than last place.

Dajani added, “Defensively, Aidan Hutchinson is an elite pass rusher, Jack Campbell was one of the best linebackers in football last year and cashed in on a lucrative deal, and Brian Branch, Kerby Joseph, DJ Reed and Roger McCreary can handle the weapons in the NFC North if they stay healthy.”

“It’s important to note that the Lions have the sixth-easiest schedule in the NFL this season. I’ll take them to go 11-6.”

The Los Angeles Rams are the runaway frontrunner to win the Super Bowl, especially after trading for EDGE rusher Myles Garrett this week.

Dustin Baker is a novelist and political scientist. His second novel, The Invaders , is out now. So is … More about Dustin Baker