Sports
Connacht Face Season-Defining Clash as Weakened Glasgow Visit Galway
On paper it’s top versus mid-table. In reality, the context is doing most of the talking: Glasgow could be without close to 15 frontline players, Connacht are missing Finlay Bealham plus long-term injuries, and the betting line has swung so far that Connacht are around -3 favourites after a season where they’d usually be double-digit underdogs in this match-up.
URC Table Snapshot
- Glasgow Warriors: 1st — 44 pts from 11 games, +155 PD
- Connacht: 12th — 21 pts from 10 games, -26 PD
It doesn’t flatter Connacht, but the table is tighter than it looks. A win here keeps the play-off chase alive, especially with Scarlets in two weeks in what becomes a vital mini-block for points.
The Six Nations Factor
Glasgow have been the most consistent side in the URC this season — 44 points, best points difference, and a run that has them looking like champions again. But international windows change everything.
- Glasgow are expected to be missing ~15 starters due to Scotland duty
- The handicap has flipped from what would likely be Glasgow -10 in a normal week to Connacht -3
- Leadership and cohesion are the big risks when you remove a full international spine
They’ll still be structured. They’ll still have threat. But this is the kind of week where depth gets tested properly.
Connacht Recent URC Form
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Result | F | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 Nov 2025 | Sharks | Dexcom Stadium | W | 44 | 17 |
| 20 Dec 2025 | Dragons | Rodney Parade | L | 28 | 48 |
| 27 Dec 2025 | Ulster | Dexcom Stadium | L | 24 | 29 |
| 03 Jan 2026 | Leinster | Aviva Stadium | L | 17 | 52 |
| 24 Jan 2026 | Leinster | Dexcom Stadium | L | 23 | 34 |
| 31 Jan 2026 | Zebre Parma | Stadio Sergio Lanfranchi | W | 31 | 15 |
- Connacht have won 2 of their last 6 URC matches
- The Zebre win (31–15) ended a run of four straight defeats
- Connacht have lost their last two URC home matches and haven’t lost three in a row at Dexcom Stadium in the Championship since January 2021
Glasgow Recent URC Form
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Result | F | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 Nov 2025 | Scarlets | Parc y Scarlets | L | 0 | 23 |
| 20 Dec 2025 | Edinburgh | Hampden Park | W | 24 | 12 |
| 27 Dec 2025 | Edinburgh | Scottish Gas Murrayfield | W | 21 | 3 |
| 03 Jan 2026 | Zebre Parma | Scotstoun Stadium | W | 47 | 10 |
| 24 Jan 2026 | Zebre Parma | Stadio Sergio Lanfranchi | W | 26 | 21 |
| 30 Jan 2026 | Munster | Scotstoun Stadium | W | 31 | 22 |
- Glasgow have won 5 of their last 6 URC matches
- Their only defeat in that run was 0–23 away to Scarlets
- They’ve conceded just 91 points across those six matches (avg 15.2 per game)
Recent URC Meetings: Connacht v Glasgow
| Date | Match | Venue | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22 Feb 2019 | Glasgow Warriors v Connacht | Scotstoun Stadium | 43–17 |
| 03 Oct 2020 | Connacht v Glasgow Warriors | Dexcom Stadium | 28–24 |
| 29 Jan 2022 | Connacht v Glasgow Warriors | Dexcom Stadium | 20–42 |
| 22 Apr 2023 | Glasgow Warriors v Connacht | Scotstoun Stadium | 29–27 |
| 28 Oct 2023 | Connacht v Glasgow Warriors | Dexcom Stadium | 34–26 |
| 26 Jan 2025 | Glasgow Warriors v Connacht | Scotstoun Stadium | 22–19 |
- Connacht’s only win in the last four meetings was 34–26 in Galway in October 2023
- The last meeting in Scotland was a tight one: Glasgow 22–19 Connacht (January 2025)
URC Era Record
| Team | Played | Wins | Win % | Losses | Draws |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Connacht | 470 | 188 | 40.00% | 271 | 11 |
| Glasgow Warriors | 486 | 275 | 56.58% | 197 | 14 |
What It Means for Connacht (and Lancaster)
It’s been a rough first season for Stuart Lancaster results-wise, but the injury context matters. Connacht have been forced to lean on academy players far more than planned, and while that may pay off long-term, the URC table doesn’t wait for development stories.
This game is different. Glasgow are weakened. Connacht are closer to a settled XV than they’ve been in months. That flips the pressure.
With Scarlets coming in two weeks, Connacht need a points haul from this block. Beat Glasgow’s second string at home and you suddenly have a runway. Miss the chance and the season starts slipping away fast.
Key Match Angles
- Tempo: Connacht should try to play at speed and stretch Glasgow’s combinations
- Breakdown pressure: less settled Glasgow units can be exposed if Connacht win collisions
- Game management: Connacht must control exits — Glasgow live off cheap turnover ball
Prediction
This is the kind of fixture that usually feels like a free swing. Not this week. If Connacht want the play-offs, this is one they have to take.
Connacht by 4–8 points (but only if their set-piece and exits hold up).