Sports
Connacht v Stormers Preview: Teams, Stats & Prediction
BKT URC • ROUND 1
CONNACHT v STORMERS
THE SEASON STARTS HERE
Missing internationals, Mack Hansen’s return, a dramatic handicap move from Connacht -1 to -8 and two of last season’s play-off sides going head-to-head in Galway.
CONNACHT
V
DHL STORMERS
|
Kick-Off 19:45 |
Date 25 Sept |
Venue Dexcom |
Live TG4 |
There probably isn’t a stranger game to open Connacht’s season. Two of last season’s URC play-off teams meet at Dexcom Stadium, but the sides actually taking the field are very different to the full-strength versions of Connacht and the Stormers.
Connacht finished eighth in the 2025/26 URC before losing away to Glasgow in the quarter-finals, while the Stormers finished third and reached the semi-finals.
International commitments have ripped through both squads, particularly the visitors, and the impact can be seen clearly in the betting market.
THE MARKET HAS MOVED
Connacht opened at around -1 on the handicap. By match day that had moved all the way to approximately -8 as the scale of the Stormers’ absences became clear.
1. The Missing Internationals
Both teams are significantly below full strength, although the Stormers have been particularly badly hit by Springbok duty.
☘️ CONNACHT MISSING
International / summer involvement:
Bundee Aki, Ciarán Frawley, Cian Prendergast, Sean Jansen, Darragh Murray, Sam Illo and Billy Bohan.
Also unavailable:
Will Connors, Hugh Gavin, Dylan Tierney-Martin, Dave Heffernan and Harry West.
🇿🇦 STORMERS MISSING
Springbok duty:
Siya Kolisi, Wilco Louw, Sacha Feinberg-Mngomezulu, Damian Willemse, Paul de Villiers, Deon Fourie, Ntuthuko Mchunu, Zachary Porthen and Cobus Reinach.
Injured:
Cheslin Kolbe – broken jaw.
2. Connacht By The Numbers
There was plenty to like about Connacht’s underlying numbers during the 2025/26 season. They wanted the ball, played at a high tempo and generated plenty of attacking opportunities.
2025/26 URC PERFORMANCE
|
53.6% Possession |
38:41 Ball In Play |
|
24.4 Points / Game |
3.4 Tries / Game |
|
178.9 Passes / Game |
134.3 Carries / Game |
|
111.5 Rucks / Game |
3.5s Ruck Speed |
|
197.2 Tackles / Game |
89.7% Tackle Success |
|
93.4% Scrum Success |
85.6% Lineout Success |
|
8.5 22 Entries / Game |
9:03 Time In Opp. 22 |
Connacht averaged 53.6% possession, the highest figure of the four Irish provinces, while their average ball-in-play time of 38 minutes 41 seconds was also the highest.
They averaged 178.9 passes, 134.3 carries and 111.5 rucks per game, with an average ruck speed of just 3.5 seconds.
Their defensive workload was enormous too. Connacht averaged 197.2 tackles per game while maintaining an excellent 89.7% tackle success rate.
The scrum operated at 93.4%, although an 85.6% lineout success rate leaves obvious room for improvement.
44.8%
THE NUMBER CONNACHT MUST IMPROVE
Connacht averaged 8.5 entries into the opposition 22 and spent 9:03 per game there, but successfully converted only 44.8% of those opportunities.
Against a depleted Stormers side, Connacht cannot afford to dominate possession and territory without turning that pressure into points.
3. Why Galway Matters
|
5 Straight Home Wins |
1/5 Stormers Wins On Last 5 Irish Visits |
|
33–24 Connacht Win In Cape Town |
4–2 URC H2H To Stormers |
Connacht enter Round 1 having won their last five home matches in all competitions, while the Stormers have won just once on their last five visits to Ireland.
The overall URC head-to-head favours the Stormers by four victories to two, but the most recent meeting went Connacht’s way.
18 APRIL 2026 • CAPE TOWN
DHL STORMERS
24 – 33
CONNACHT
Connacht ended the Stormers’ four-match winning run in the series.
4. Mack Hansen Is Back
CONNACHT • NUMBER 14
MACK HANSEN RETURNS
One of the biggest positives for Connacht is the return of Mack Hansen on the right wing, giving the backline an established international attacking threat.
There is also a Connacht debut for loosehead Francois van Wyk, while Academy back-rower Max Flynn is in line to make his senior debut from the bench.
With Ciarán Frawley unavailable, Josh Ioane starts at out-half alongside Ben Murphy, while Cathal Forde’s return gives Connacht another powerful option in midfield.
5. Connacht Starting XV
☘️ CONNACHT RUGBY
BACKS
15 Sam Gilbert
14 Mack Hansen
13 John Devine
12 Cathal Forde
11 Finn Treacy
10 Josh Ioane
9 Ben Murphy
FORWARDS
1 Francois van Wyk
2 Eoin de Buitléar
3 Finlay Bealham
4 Niall Murray
5 Josh Murphy
6 Sean O’Brien
7 Shamus Hurley-Langton
8 Paul Boyle (C)
REPLACEMENTS
16 Matthew Victory
17 Jordan Duggan
18 Fiachna Barrett
19 David O’Connor
20 Max Flynn
21 Caolin Blade
22 Seán Naughton
23 Shayne Bolton
6. DHL Stormers Starting XV
⚡ DHL STORMERS
BACKS
15 Warrick Gelant
14 Seabelo Senatla
13 Ruhan Nel (C)
12 Jonathan Roche
11 Leolin Zas
10 Jurie Matthee
9 Andre Warner
FORWARDS
1 Vernon Matongo
2 André-Hugo Venter
3 Neethling Fouché
4 Riley Norton
5 JD Schickerling
6 Evan Roos
7 Louw Nel
8 Hacjivah Dayimani
REPLACEMENTS
16 Vernon Paulo
17 Olly Reid
18 Sazi Sandi
19 Connor Evans
20 Adré Smith
21 Marcel Theunissen
22 Ezekiel Ngobeni
23 Yaqeen Ahmed
7. Three Areas That Could Decide It
KEY BATTLE 01
The Connacht Scrum
A 93.4% scrum success rate last season gives Connacht a platform they should look to exploit against a Stormers pack missing several Springboks.
KEY BATTLE 02
Tempo & Breakdown
Connacht averaged 111.5 rucks per game at 3.5 seconds. If Ben Murphy and Josh Ioane can generate that sort of tempo, the reshuffled Stormers defence could face an enormous workload.
KEY BATTLE 03
Take The Chances
The 44.8% successful 22-entry figure is the obvious area for improvement. Connacht cannot spend long periods on top and allow the Stormers to escape without conceding points.
⚠️ Don’t Mistake This For A Weak Stormers XV
Warrick Gelant, Seabelo Senatla, Leolin Zas, Ruhan Nel, Evan Roos, Hacjivah Dayimani and JD Schickerling give the visitors plenty of experience and attacking quality.
Roos is a particularly obvious danger after scoring 12 URC tries last season.
8. Match Officials
|
REFEREE Sam Grove-White |
AR1 Eoghan Cross |
|
AR2 Tomas O’Sullivan |
TMO Dave Sutherland |
SPORTSNEWSIRELAND PREDICTION
CONNACHT TO MAKE HOME ADVANTAGE COUNT
The move from Connacht -1 to -8 tells its own story. Once the actual teams are considered rather than the overall strength of the two squads, Connacht have a significant opportunity.
The Stormers still have enough individual quality to make this uncomfortable, particularly through Gelant, Senatla, Zas, Roos and Dayimani.
But Connacht have won five straight at home, beat the Stormers 33-24 in Cape Town in April and welcome Mack Hansen back into a starting XV containing plenty of experience.
Connacht to start the new URC season with a win.
CONNACHT 29–20 STORMERS
HANDICAP: CONNACHT -8 ✓
Broadcast: TG4, Premier Sports, SuperSport, URC.tv and FloRugby. Betting markets can move before kick-off. Gamble responsibly.
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