ESPN’s ‘Football Power Index’ Is Not Sold on the Vikings

Every June, ESPN releases its FPI — Football Power Index — a thermometer of each team’s ranking before the regular season. This go-around, the metric claims the Minnesota Vikings are the league’s 19th-best team and on tap for an 8-9 record.

Yes, it’s a fancy way of saying the most powerful sports network in the world believes the Vikings are mid.

Brian Flores Should Give Vikings a Better Case Than No. 19

ESPN FPI: Vikings at No. 19

FPI rankings are out, and the Vikings are sandwiched between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (No. 18) and the Indianapolis Colts (No. 20). ESPN argues that Minnesota is the NFL’s 19th-best team with the ninth-worst offense. The metric basically does not trust Kyler Murray and J.J. McCarthy.

Defense is a different story — thank goodness. ESPN FPI placed Minnesota at No. 7 defensively, which is actually a bit low because the Vikings ranked third-best in the league per EPA/Play and DVOA last season.

On special teams, Minnesota pulled down the No. 8 spot, probably because kicker Will Reichard was an All-Pro in 2025. And via strength of schedule, it was No. 16 for the Vikings — smack dab in the middle.

All told, FPI claims that Minnesota has a 29.1% chance of reaching the postseason.

What Is FPI?

New to FPI? That’s fair; it’s not overly popular. Here’s how ESPN describes the stat:

At its core, NFL FPI is a prediction system for the NFL. Each team’s FPI rating is composed of a predicted offensive, defensive and special teams efficiency, as measured by expected points added per play, and that rating is the basis for FPI’s game-level and season-level projections. Other information included in the preseason ratings include: previous years’ efficiencies for each unit, number of returning starters (on offense and defense), coaching/coordinator/quarterback changes and quarterback injuries.

After combining all of these factors, a preseason FPI rating is determined for each team, which represents the points above or below average a team is expected to be in the coming season. Preseason FPI will serve as the basis of the early-season predictions but will diminish in effect as the season progresses and we learn more about the actual strength of each team.

FPI calls the Los Angeles Rams the top dog in the NFL — most do — with the Buffalo Bills a distant second.

ESPN’s Seth Walder noted on the NFC North specifically, “The NFC North trio of the Bears, Packers and Vikings rank 10th, 14th and 16th in strength of schedule, respectively. But the Lions rank 31st. Detroit lucked out after finishing last in the division in 2025, as its fourth-place schedule differ significantly from its NFC North rivals.”

“Though the other three teams must battle with NFC West heavyweights, the Lions face the Cardinals. Same deal (to less of an extreme) in facing the AFC South — the rest of the division has to face one of the Texans, Colts and Jaguars, while the Lions play the Titans. Detroit also will face the Giants, and the Bears and Packers will have to tangle with the Eagles and Cowboys, respectively.”

The 2024 Warning

At this time on the calendar in 2024, the Vikings ranked 25th per ESPN FPI. How did they respond? The club won 14 games during Sam Darnold’s rebirth season and almost pulled off an NFC North crown if not for a lousy game at Detroit in Week 18.

FPI is a wonderful guideline for how teams might fare in an upcoming season, but it obviously is not gospel. It also fluctuates. For example, if Minnesota wins its first few games in September, it will climb into the FPI Top 10, and few will remember the 19th ranking from June.

Another club that might be ranked too low? The New Orleans Saints. They sit at No. 25 per FPI. New Orleans finished the 2025 campaign strong, and some are high on quarterback Tyler Shough’s upside.

It’s the Defense, Stupid.

Flores has quietly assembled one of the NFL’s most formidable defenses in Minnesota. Consider the Vikings’ defensive EPA/Play rankings since Flores’s arrival:

2023: 17th
2024: 1st
2025: 3rd
2023–2025 overall: 2nd

The data reveals a noteworthy trend: over three years, Minnesota has boasted the NFL’s second-best defense by EPA/Play under Flores’s leadership.

The accomplishment should not be overlooked. Regardless of the Vikings’ offensive performance in 2026, the defense is already strong enough to contend for a Super Bowl. Unfortunately, the team’s inconsistent offense has overshadowed this larger narrative. In one season, the offense might struggle to find its rhythm; in another, it falters critically when it matters most. All the while, the defense performs at a high level.

Flores now possesses the talent, reputation, and track record to demonstrate that ESPN’s No. 19 ranking is undervalued. Barring an unforeseen collapse, Minnesota is poised to once again feature one of the league’s elite defensive units. It’s what Flores does.

The Vikings don’t need to aspire to a championship-caliber defense; they already have one.

Dustin Baker is a novelist and political scientist. His second novel, The Invaders , is out now. So is … More about Dustin Baker