Explained: Why Iran’s FIFA WC spot is under scrutiny amid Trump remarks | FIFA World Cup 2022

With under fifty days to go for kick-off, the 2026 FIFA World Cup has found itself at the centre of an unexpected geopolitical storm. US President Donald Trump has publicly suggested that Iran’s presence at the tournament may be inappropriate, even hinting at safety concerns, while voices in football circles speculate about a possible replacement with Italy national football team emerging as a contender if a vacancy arises.

At the heart of the issue is Iran national football team’s refusal to play matches in the United States, where all their group fixtures are scheduled.  The team has proposed shifting games to Mexico, but FIFA has rejected the idea, citing logistical challenges. Whether Iran ultimately participates, and what happens if they don’t, is quickly becoming one of the biggest uncertainties ahead of the tournament.

Political Deadlock Deepens

Tensions escalated after failed diplomatic talks between the US and Iran in Islamabad. Iran’s sports minister, Ahmad Donyamali, took a firm stance, declaring that participation in the US was not possible under current circumstances. His remarks reflected broader political grievances, adding fuel to an already sensitive situation.

Trump responded bluntly on social media, stating that Iran’s presence might not be appropriate “for their own safety.” Despite the rhetoric, Iran has stopped short of officially withdrawing, instead pushing for a venue change in hopes that FIFA might reconsider.

Why a Mexico Switch Isn’t Feasible

Relocating Iran’s matches to Mexico appears unrealistic at this stage. The tournament draw, finalized months ago, has already set in motion extensive planning, from travel arrangements and team bases to ticket sales and logistics.

Any change would also require agreement from other group-stage teams, Belgium national football team, New Zealand national football team, and Egypt national football team, making the process even more complicated.

Additionally, concerns around playing conditions in Mexico, particularly at the iconic Estadio Azteca, have been raised due to altitude and heat. Hosting extra fixtures at short notice would also strain local infrastructure.

Knockout Complications Loom

The situation could become even more complex if Iran progresses to the knockout stages, where a potential clash with the United States could force further schedule reshuffling. Given these cascading complications, FIFA’s reluctance to alter venues was always expected.

A Delicate Balancing Act for FIFA

Selecting a replacement, if needed, would not be straightforward. FIFA would need to navigate competing interests among its member nations while maintaining diplomatic balance. Influential countries such as China and Russia are reportedly in favour of Iran’s inclusion, adding another layer of complexity.

Infantino’s close rapport with Trump has also drawn scrutiny, with some questioning whether politics could influence sporting decisions. Ultimately, FIFA faces the difficult task of managing a situation where sport and geopolitics are tightly intertwined.

Rare but Not Unprecedented

Withdrawals after qualification are uncommon in modern World Cups. The last notable instance dates back to the 1950 FIFA World Cup, when multiple teams, including Turkey, France, Scotland, and India, opted out.

There have been moments of protest as well. Ahead of the 1978 FIFA World Cup, several teams considered boycotting due to political concerns, though none ultimately withdrew. Dutch legend Johan Cruyff was a notable absentee.

Earlier editions saw more frequent disruptions, including withdrawals in 1938 and reduced participation in 1934, but such scenarios are rare in the modern era.

FIFA having full control over the situation

FIFA regulations provide broad discretion in such cases. Clause 6.7 of the tournament guidelines states that if a team withdraws or is excluded, FIFA can decide on a replacement at its own discretion.

This ambiguity has sparked widespread speculation. Teams like Bolivia national football team, Italy national football team, and United Arab Emirates national football team have all been mentioned as possible candidates, depending on how FIFA interprets its rules.

Bolivia may emerge as a contender after falling short in the intercontinental playoffs, while Italy could come into consideration as the highest-ranked side that didn’t qualify. Meanwhile, the United Arab Emirates remain in the mix, having been one of the teams affected during Iran’s qualification pathway.