Fantasy football impact of latest legal development for Packers RB Josh Jacobs

Content warning: The following article contains depictions of alleged domestic violence.

Josh Jacobs pleaded no contest to misdemeanor charges of battery and criminal damage to property on Thursday, just ahead of Week 1, after moving his initial court date up from November. Jacobs told the court , “I fully understand the seriousness of the situation, and I take full responsibility.”

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He was fined $1,000 and has five conditions for his plea:

1. No further criminal acts;

2. No contact with the victim;

5. Pay restitution to the victim

Jacobs will reportedly not serve jail time, and the NFL is now likely to consider a suspension in the near future. He’s currently on the commissioner’s exempt list, and if he’s suspended later on, games missed on the exempt List will count toward his suspension. He’d likely be fined his salary for games missed while on the exempt List.

The NFL Personal Conduct Policy has a baseline suspension of six games for domestic violence. The State of Wisconsin did not count this as domestic violence because the victim was not living with Jacobs at the time, but the NFL will most likely consider this a domestic violence issue. There is some precedent of other battery charges being originally six games and then reduced to lower than that, but the most likely scenario is roughly six games, beginning in Week 1.

From the admittedly very awkward transition from the legal situation to fantasy football purposes, this is close to a best-case scenario for Jacobs. It’s easier to find replacements with most RBs healthy heading into Week 1 and without teams on bye. It also shortens the runway for MarShawn Lloyd, Kaleb Johnson and Chris Brooks to make noise and cut into his work. Jacobs was the RB12 last season as the Packers’ bellcow, and it’d be a surprise if he didn’t have close to that workload upon his return as an upside RB2. If drafts were held today, Jacobs would be a sixth-round pick to me. 

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That said, the criminal complaint still indicates that some of this altercation was on video. The criminal complaint, according to ESPN, stated that a woman was trying to leave Jacobs’ garage when he “grabbed her and threw her to the ground, and she struck her head, suffering an injury.”

If the video is leaked and it shows something the NFL does not feel comfortable with, then Jacobs’ could still end up missing more than the projected six games. For what it’s worth, the District Attorney’s office did drop the charges from five to two and reduce them from a felony to misdemeanors after seeing the video. The video was also at Jacobs’ residence, not in public like the leaked videos of Ray Rice, Alvin Kamara and others.

Lloyd would be closer to the 120th pick if drafts were held today, as a short-term RB2/FLEX candidate. Packers OC Adam Stenavich said the team will use a committee approach in Week 1 against the Vikings’ unique defense. Lloyd likely gets the start, but newly-acquired Kaleb Johnson should get carries in an offense built for his style. Meanwhile, Chris Brooks is the only proven pass protector, and with the Vikings’ blitz-heavy scheme on schedule, he could play more than many expect. 

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Lloyd is my RB27 in Week 1. He’s a very clear sell, as confidence around his value could tank with an opening clunker. It doesn’t appear he’ll be in the mix for starts for very long either.