Fantasy Football Week 1 Rankings: Hayden Winks’ top-12 wide receiver projections

Fantasy football analyst Hayden Winks reveals his top-12 wide receiver rankings and analysis for Week 1. He’ll continue to update his rankings for every position throughout the week. He also wrote about two lower-ranked WRs playing in Wednesday ‘s season opener.

WR1. Puka Nacua (vs. SF) – 88.5 proj. receiving yards

Nacua easily finished as half PPR’s WR1, scoring 2.8 more points per game than Jaxon Smith-Njigba. He did it by averaging 108 yards and 8.1 receptions, not by TDs. If Nacua chips away at Davante Adams‘ league-high 0.76 TDs per game in the red zone, then he could have a record-breaking season. For reference, Nacua was at 0.32.

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Nacua has “only” averaged 8.2-85-0.60 receiving in five career contests against the 49ers, good for 16.2 half PPR points per game. But those also included two games of 52% and 43% snaps, so he’s roasted them just like every other team on a per-snap basis. The 49ers are dealing with return-to-play front-seven players who are being dragged on 15+ hour flights, and their secondary is just okay.

Nacua is projected for a league-high 88.5 receiving yards on a league-high 11.5 targets this week. LA has a 26.0-point team total, which is notably lower than their nearly 30-point scoring average from 2025.

WR2. Ja’Marr Chase (vs. TB) – 87.5 proj. receiving yards

Chase is the WR1 on WR1 expected points in games with Joe Burrow healthy over the past three seasons, averaging 21.5 PPR points per game. The offense may tinker its design a little bit this year by going under center a bit more in order to hunt more explosives on the ground, but this will still be a pass-first offense. It’s possible they have more explosives off play-action and down the field because of the tinkered design, too.

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Chase gets a pass-funnel matchup to start off. The Bucs were sixth in passing yards allowed versus 27th in rush yards. Teams facing DT Vita Vea simply pass the ball, and that’s especially true with fairly unproven starters at CB2 and in the slot. The Bengals are third in projected points (27.0), and Chase will eat. He’s projected for 87.5 yards on 10.5 targets. Only Puka Nacua has the edge over him this week.

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WR3. Amon-Ra St. Brown (vs. NO) – 78.5 proj. receiving yards

When David Montgomery either missed the game or finished with five carries (10 game sample), Amon-Ra has averaged 20.9 PPR points and 21.8 expected points. Both are WR1 overall caliber. In those games, he’s averaged 8.4 receptions, 102.5 yards, and 0.60 touchdowns. His average depth of target drops, as he becomes an extension of the run game. Well, Monty is gone and even current RB2 Isiah Pacheco is out.

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The Lions have the highest team total of Week 1 (28.75 points), and the Saints have 2025 third-rounder Jonas Sanker in the slot to defend him. There is nothing negative to say about the set up this week. I’m surprised his betting market projections aren’t even higher: 6.5 for 78.5 on 9.5 targets.

WR4. Justin Jefferson (vs. GB) – 73.5 proj. receiving yards

Just throw out the 2025 season. Everything else has been pure greatness. Jefferson averaged 100 receiving yards from 2022-24 in games without Josh Dobbs and Jaren Hall. That’s enough to flirt with WR1 overall if Kyler Murray can reach the Kirk Cousins to Sam Darnold tier. That seems within range!

The Packers without Micah Parsons are a great spot to start out hot. In five games without him to close last year, they allowed the fifth-highest EPA per dropback and eighth most passing yards per game, with the lowest sack rate (2.2%). Heck, even Jefferson put up 101 yards in Week 18 with J.J. McCarthy and Max Brosmer!

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The Packers are starting Keisean Nixon and Carrington Valentine at outside CB, and they will reportedly play more man coverage and do it with more off coverage. That’s dangerous against Jefferson’s gumby-like movements.

Jefferson is back to elite WR1 status in this home, domed matchup. Minnesota has the 10th-highest team total of the week.

WR5. Chris Olave (at DET) – 77.5 proj. receiving yards

In a new role that led to more underneath targets, Olave posted a career-best WR7 per-game finish on WR6 usage under HC Kellen Moore. He had improved QB play from rookie Tyler Shough, and Olave really took off without Rashid Shaheed after Week 10. From that point forward, he averaged 9.9 targets per game and 86 yards. Both are very clear WR1 numbers. Nothing has materially changed from that dominant stretch.

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The matchup is amazing. The Saints project for 21.25 points against the Lions, and the game script is obviously pass first as 7.0-point dogs in a dome environment. Both offenses play with aggressive pace, and the Lions’ secondary is a total mess. ESPN’s Ben Solak notes the Lions starting secondary is the oldest of any team in the last 15 years. They don’t have the speed to match with Olave. They won’t have safties Brian Branch and Kerby Joseph.

Only Puka Nacua projects for more targets (10.5) by the betting markets.

WR6. Jaxon Smith-Njigba (vs. NE) – 82.5 proj. receiving yards

JSN vs. CB1 Christian Gonzalez is the biggest matchup of Week 1, and it happens on the NFL season opener. Let’s go. Smith-Njigba ran 32 routes in the Super Bowl before leaving injured, and Gonzalez did travel with him plenty. It wasn’t every snap, of course, but there were times where he’d travel with him in the slot and C-Go did go to JSN’s side of the formation more times than not. JSN had 27 yards on nine targets. Gonzalez also semi-shadowed Courtland Sutton in the AFC Conference Championship.

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This time around, the Seahawks are projected for 23.75 points (11th) at home with a first-time play-caller. The offense will remain balanced with downfield play-action shots as the primary focus of the pass game. It’ll be nearly impossible to replicate the +10.2 completion percentage over expected that JSN had last year with a white hot Sam Darnold, but JSN is in consideration for best route runner in the league. Darnold has always had a great deep ball, too.

WR rooms facing the Patriots last year averaged 24 fewer receiving yards than their season-long average. They’re extra solid against No. 1 WRs because of Gonzalez. They held Courtland Sutton to 17 yards, Quentin Johnston to 20 yards and Jayden Higgins (without Nico Collins) to 59 yards during their playoff run as an example.

This is a challenging opener for JSN. He’s still projected for 82.5 receiving yards by the betting markets. That’s a real discount to his 100-yard average from 2025.

WR7. CeeDee Lamb (at NYG) – 76.5 proj. receiving yards

Lamb has averaged 90 receiving yards per game from 2022-2025 when Dak Prescott has started. He’s the WR3 on WR5 usage and a 26% target share (WR5) over that span.

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With George Pickens balling out last year, Lamb averaged 89 receiving yards per game on a 26% target share, if we remove his two injured games. He was the WR8 on WR6 usage, with the only real difference being he scored 0.25 touchdowns per game rather than his baseline of 0.37. Long story short, Pickens’ breakout just made the Cowboys a better offense. It didn’t really matter for Lamb’s fantasy production.

Meanwhile, the Giants are going to attempt being more stout on the ground under HC John Harbaugh, but they could get quite exposed in the secondary with Greg Newsome and Deonte Banks as their top outside CBs. Dru Phillips has had competitive moments but is a volatile slot CB, too. It’s a great matchup to open with, and the Cowboys No. 5 implied team total reflects that.

WR8. George Pickens (at NYG) – 70.5 proj. receiving yards

Pickens feasted without CeeDee Lamb last year, then in 13 games WITH Lamb, he averaged 77 YPG en route to a WR10 per-game average on WR13 usage. His targets with Lamb active had a 63% success rate (WR4) because they come when Lamb is getting the shaded coverage on the other side. One-on-one to Pickens is as good as it gets.

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That’s especially true in this great matchup. The Giants’ starting CBs were in a competition throughout camp (read: bad) and were vulnerable whenever left on islands last year. More resources will be spent loading the box with this new defensive scheme, and the Giants could get exposed through the air, even with a great pass rush. There’s simply not enough talent in the secondary.

Pickens might be a little more volatile than other fantasy WR1s, but he’s projected for a strong 70.5 yards and 8.5 targets by the betting markets. Those are less than what he averaged with Lamb last year. There’s been consistent talk out of camp that Pickens was the best player on the team.

WR9. Nico Collins (vs. BUF) – 68.5 proj. receiving yards

Collins is the most likely WR to have a Jaxon Smith-Njigba type of breakout season. He’s certified elite on tape and in the advanced metrics, and the Texans’ lackluster WR depth opens up the chance for a 30% target share. Newly acquired Kayshon Boutte is a low-volume deep threat as his counterpart, and that type of profile should allow Collins to have more underneath/intermediate routes this season. That’s the difference between being a consistent fantasy WR1 and the up-and-down WR11 on WR11 usage that he was last season. I’m optimistic.

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The matchup is more neutral. The Bills have an offense that can keep pace with the Texans’ elite defense, but Buffalo was a run funnel last season, allowing the fifth most rushing yards and the second fewest pass yards per game. It’s a new scheme under DC Jim Leonard but the secondary is still a tier better than their front seven, in part because CB1 Christian Benford is legit.

The Texans are 22nd in projected points, and Collins has a 68.5-yard projection by the betting markets as a low-end WR1.

WR10. A.J. Brown (at SEA) – 62.5 proj. receiving yards

AJB had a normal training camp and heads into the year healthy, unlike last year when he had an unusually slow start with a hamstring issue. His tape and numbers bounced back halfway through 2025, and he should compete for low-end WR1 numbers in his age-29 season with an MVP-caliber QB.

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OC Josh McDaniels handed an older version of Davante Adams 180 and 175 targets just a few years ago with far worse QB play, so the upside remains intact.

The Seahawks still provide a very challenging matchup under HC Mike Macdonald with CB1 Devon Witherspoon tasked with partially stopping him. There is a potential drop down to their CB2 after Riq Woolen departed, and star SCB Nick Emmanwori (questionable) is banged up, while FS Ty Okada is ruled out.

If there’s a time to catch the Seahawks secondary, now is it. The Patriots are still projected for just 20.75 points (24th). TreVeyon Henderson will not be available, potentially setting up more dropbacks than normal.

WR11. DeVonta Smith (vs. WAS) – 66.5 proj. receiving yards

With A.J. Brown gone, Smith is the clear-cut WR1 for the first time since he broke out as a rookie in 2021. In five games without AJB since then, Smith is the WR3 in yards per game (89) on WR10 targets (9.0). It’s an extremely small sample and the Eagles have Makai Lemon now plus their red-zone rush rate, but Smith could put up top-10 receiving yards if OC Sean Mannion proves to be an upgrade over last year’s static play-caller.

Smith was just at 64 YPG and 7.0 targets in games with AJB over that same sample. This could be a 10-20 receiving yards per game trade for Smith.

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The matchup is ripe for a big outing. The Commanders were horrific last year in every phase. They were eighth worst against fantasy WRs when adjusting for schedule, and they’re still only starting Rasul Douglas, Mike Sainristil and SCB Amik Robertson in the secondary with a no-namer at free safety.

WR12. Tee Higgins (vs. TB) – 60.5 proj. receiving yards

Higgins has played 39 games with Joe Burrow healthy since 2022. He’s averaged 12.3 half PPR points, equating to WR13 per-game production on WR14 usage.

There are times when the Bengals won’t be pushed and those provide lower-floor outcomes than others in this tier, but this season opener is against a pass-funnel Buccaneers defense that is routinely allowing opposing offenses to pass more than normal in neutral situations. Tampa Bay allowed the sixth-most receiving yards per game last year.

Higgins has a great ceiling with the Bengals projected for 27.0 points (third most). The betting markets have him projected for 11.4 half PPR points and 60.5 receiving yards as an upside WR2.

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Lower-ranked WRs playing Wednesday

47. Romeo Doubs (at SEA) – 36.5 proj. receiving yards

Doubs was signed to be a long-time starter on the boundary after finishing as the WR37 on WR35 usage on the Packers last year. He is an effective route runner who does most of his damage in the intermediate levels. Kayshon Boutte had this starting spot last year and was utilized far more downfield. We’ll see if his role changes in a new scheme and while playing next to a star WR like A.J. Brown.

The Seahawks are a tough matchup, of course. The good news is CB1 Devon Witherspoon will likely see a bulk of Brown, and there’s a real dropoff to CB2 Josh Jobe with Riq Woolen and other members of the secondary out of town. Star NCB Nick Emmanwori (questionable) and S Ty Okada (out) are also injured. If there’s time to sneak on in against this defense, it’s now. It’s still not a positive one any way we slice it. The Patriots have the No. 24 team total.

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56. Rashid Shaheed (vs. NE) – 31.5 proj. receiving yards

Shaheed is back on a 3-year, $51M contract after doing little as a receiver post trade. He only had 4.4 targets per game as a Seahawks last year, but the coaching staff doubled down on him throughout the offseason. He was a stand out in camp per reports.

The Seahawks will remain balanced on offense, while using play-action deep as the staple of the pass game. Shaheed should be the second target on these valuable looks but their success will be impossible to project week over week.

The Patriots have a star CB1 in Christian Gonzalez, but he’ll be tasked with stopping Jaxon Smith-Njigba for a lot of the night. CB2 Carlton Davis is decent but far more gettable.

More rankings and analysis from Hayden Winks