Keys to a Vikings Opening Win Over the Packers and Thoughts on the Wentz vs. McCarthy Decision

Opening day in the regular season always has been one of my favorite days on the NFL calendar.

Done (thankfully) are the offseason program, training camp, and boring preseason games. Now the games count and there’s no bigger opener for the Vikings and their fans than facing the arch-rival Packers at home in an important divisional matchup as the nationally televised doubleheader game on Sunday at 3:25 pm.

In my team exec years, the opener was nerve-racking, especially if it was a division game. We never wanted to start 0-1 since that ratcheted up the pressure in Week 2 when an 0-2 start is a big problem (and the Vikings face a tough test next week in Chicago against the reigning NFC North champion Bears). A win over the Pack will build positive momentum for Week 2.

The big Vikings news on Wednesday was the announcement by Kevin O’Connell that Carson Wentz will back up Kyler Murray in the opener. It’s not a huge surprise but certainly increases the speculation on J.J. McCarthy’s future in Minnesota. More on that later but first here are my keys to a Vikings win over the Pack.

Keys to a Vikings Opening Victory 

On Offense —

The Vikings worked hard in training camp on their outside zone running game under assistant head coach and run game guru Frank Smith. It helps to have their starting offensive line fully healthy and I expect a lot of outside runs by Aaron Jones (against his former team) and Jordan Mason on the left side behind tackle Christian Darrisaw (who should be better this season after dealing with his ACL injury aftermath last year), guard Donovan Jackson in his second season and one of the NFL’s top blocking tight ends—Josh Oliver.

Mason has lost weight and looks quicker. He’ll probably get more carries than Jones as the season progresses while Jones still has a big role in the passing game with screens and swing passes. Speedy rookie Demond Claiborne can bring a change of pace.

A strong rushing attack against a Packers run D that ranked 18th last season will set up play action shots downfield to Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison with intermediate passing to Jauan Jennings and T.J. Hockenson.

Murray should go to Jefferson early and often against suspect Packers corners even when he’s often double covered. It’s exciting to think of the potential for the Vikings offense if they can run the ball and pass protect effectively and if Murray produces.

Without Micah Parsons late last season, the Packers’ pass rush lost its best player and the team lost their last five games, including a playoff defeat in Chicago when Caleb Williams threw for 361 yards and was only sacked once.

With Parsons out on Sunday, Murray and the Vikings could have similar success against the Green Bay defense now directed by DC Jonathan Gannon (after Jeff Hafley left to become head coach of the Dolphins). But the Vikings must be wary of two top playmakers on the Packers defense—linebacker Edgerrin Cooper and safety Xavier McKinney. Ex-Viking Javon Hargrave also would love to make some big stops at DT against his former team. Center Blake Brandel needs to handle Hargrave and not have any snap miscues, which was an issue at times in training camp.

On Defense—

The return of Harrison Smith is great news for Brian Flores and the Vikings defense. Smith played well late last season and he should solidify the secondary as a big upgrade over Jay Ward or Theo Jackson as a leader and in keeping the secondary in the right alignments against the run and pass. Third round rookie Jakobe Thomas needs time to fully grasp Flores’ scheme so Smith is an important addition.

O’Connell did not commit on if or how much Smith will play in the opener after only one week of practice. But he keeps himself in shape and should see plenty of action on Sunday in a big divisional game. Another question is whether new signee Kyle Van Noy will be activated from the practice squad as the third edge rusher after only a couple weeks with the team. But Van Noy knows Flores’ defense from playing for him at New England and Miami so I expect to see him for a dozen or so snaps.

Defensive keys on Sunday will be a team effort on run defense to stop backup running back MarShawn Lloyd with Josh Jacobs out and pressuring Jordan Love as the Packers deal with O-line injuries. The Vikings young defensive linemen — led by Jalen Redmond and including rookies Caleb Banks and Domonique Orange — need to play well on run defense and provide inside pressure on the pass rush. Linebackers Blake Cashman and Eric Wilson will be key in run D and on blitzes along with helping to cover star tight end Tucker Kraft, someone whom Love will target often.

I like the matchup of excellent edge rushers Andrew Van Ginkel and Dallas Turner against Packers tackles Jordan Morgan and Zach Bako-Bewele (who is dealing with a knee injury but is expected to start). It will be interesting to see how Flores utilizes second round LB Jake Golday who could get some snaps as an edge rusher along with Tyrion Ingram-Dawkins playing some on the edge.

The Vikings secondary will be tested by some fine skill receivers led by Kraft and including Christian Watson, Jayden Reed, and Matthew Golden. Corners Byron Murphy, Isaiah Rodgers, and James Pierre must cover well and of course limiting Love’s time to throw will be critical.

Limit Penalties and be solid on special teams

There are a lot of new players (including a bunch of rookies) who will play special teams. A lot of Vikings penalties were called on punt returns in preseason so discipline in avoiding penalties will be critical on special teams and offense/defense.

It will be undrafted rookie punter/holder Brett Thorson’s first NFL game so he needs to handle the moment and do a good job punting and holding for all-pro kicker Will Reichard. Thorson did fine in preseason to beat out vet Johnny Hekker and he needs to continue on a positive path. Reichard is a proven kicker who should give the Vikings an advantage over rookie Packers kicker Trey Smack.

Prediction

It will be a great atmosphere at U.S. Bank Stadium for this border battle that is extra important for the Vikings since it’s the opener and a home divisional game.

I would’ve picked the Vikings even if Parsons and Jacobs were playing but their absence tips the scales even more towards the Purple who are the healthier team.

I think the Vikings will be the better team on both sides of the ball with a strong run game, a solid first start for Murray making big plays with Jefferson and Addison while avoiding turnovers and a defense that forces a couple turnovers. Vikings win 31-20 to get off to that important 1-0 start.

More on Wentz over McCarthy

Before McCarthy’s poor performance in the second preseason game against the Ravens, he appeared to be in the driver’s seat for the No. 2 QB job. I think things changed in O’Connell’s mind when McCarthy missed two open receivers in the end zone against Baltimore, produced no points on seven preseason drives, and then reportedly told the medical staff he didn’t feel his ankle was in good enough shape to play in the preseason finale at Denver. Wentz looked better in his limited action as he led the team on three scoring drives.

O’Connell made the right call in saying that having Wentz as the backup with his “hundred NFL starts” (actually 99) “gives us the best chance to win this Sunday.” Harsh words for J.J. to hear perhaps but it’s an accurate statement.

McCarthy now must bide his time, continue working hard on his accuracy, try to become more durable by building himself up, and stay ready if he’s needed in the event of injury to the other QBs. O’Connell says McCarthy “has 10 starts, a bunch of talent, and a bunch of things that make him a guy we want to pour into every day.”

It’s hard to predict what the future holds for the 23-year old McCarthy but the Vikings can’t give up on him yet.

Other Week 1 Games Involving NFC North teams

I pick the Lions to win at home over a seemingly improved Saints team and I think the Bears will get a road win in a close game at Carolina. If the Vikings and Bears both win, it will set up a fun matchup of 1-0 teams next week in Chicago.

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