NCAA bracket predictions: Model reveals surprising March Madness 2026 tournament picks to target

Virginia plays a bit differently under head coach Ryan Odom compared to Tony Bennett, but the emphasis on defense remains the same. The Cavs lead all of college basketball with 6.5 blocks per game, while they also defend on the perimeter by allowing the lowest three-point percentage in the ACC. That has No. 3 UVA as the pick of many to represent the Midwest Region in the Final Four of the 2026 NCAA Tournament bracket. The program’s last March Madness victory was winning the National Championship Game in 2019 and it will begin March Madness 2026 with a contest against No. 14 Wright State.

Potential future matchups could see the Cavaliers take on No. 7 Kentucky, No. 2 Iowa State or No. 1 Michigan in the March Madness bracket 2026. It took Bennett five years at Virginia to win his first tournament game, while Odom is looking for a sustained NCAA Tournament run in his first year at the school. Before making any 2026 March Madness bracket predictions, be sure to check out the 2026 NCAA Tournament bracket picks from the proven computer model at SportsLine.

Their proven projection model has simulated every game in the tournament 10,000 times. It has absolutely crushed its March Madness picks recently, beating over 91 percent of all CBS Sports brackets in four of the past seven tournaments. It was all over UConn’s championship run two years ago and nailed 12 teams in the Sweet 16 last year. It also correctly predicted all four Final Four teams in 2025.

It knows how to spot an upset as well. The same model has produced brackets that have nailed 25 first-round upsets by double-digit seeds since its inception in 2016.

Now, with the 2026 NCAA bracket revealed, the model is simulating the matchups and its results are in. You can only see it over at SportsLine.

Three 2026 March Madness bracket games to watch

One of the most intriguing 2026 March Madness matchups to watch: No. 8 Ohio State vs. No. 9 TCU in the East region. This is one of just five first-round matchups between power conference teams, and these squads have similar profiles. Ohio State’s average point differential of +7.0 is slightly better than TCU’s mark of +6.2, but the Horned Frogs are a bit better versus Top 25 teams (3-6 record) than the Buckeyes (2-8). OSU does own a 4-0 all-time record versus TCU, but 9-seeds have gotten the better of 8-seeds in recent tourneys, winning 64.3% of matchups since 2018.

Another 2026 NCAA Tournament matchup to keep an eye on is No. 7 UCLA vs. No. 10 UCF in the East Region. UCLA is in the Big Dance for the 54th time, which is tied for the third-most all-time. The Bruins have the sixth-most experienced roster in college basketball and are led by head coach Mick Cronin, who took them to the 2021 Final Four as a No. 11 seed. UCF is just 1-5 in NCAA Tournament games all-time, with its lone win coming against VCU in the Round of 64 in 2019.  

Another 2026 March Madness game to watch out for: No. 6 Louisville vs. No. 11 South Florida in the East Region. The Cardinals can lean on a 29-4 all-time record versus USF, but Louisville HC Pat Kelsey is also 0-5 all-time in the Round of 64. The status of star Mikel Brown Jr. (back) looms large as he missed the last four games, and UofL is 16-5 with him compared to 7-5 without him. As for South Florida, it swept the American regular season and tournament titles and is riding an 11-game win streak. The Bulls also have five players averaging 11-plus ppg, which is tied for the most in Division I. You can only see the model’s 2026 NCAA bracket picks here.

How to make 2026 NCAA bracket predictions

Who wins every tournament-defining matchup? And which teams will make surprising runs through the 2026 NCAA Tournament bracket? With the model’s track record of calling bracket-busting upsets, you’ll want to see which stunners it’s calling this year before locking in any 2026 NCAA bracket picks.

So what’s the optimal NCAA Tournament 2026 bracket? And which NCAA Tournament Cinderella teams will shock college basketball? Visit SportsLine now to see which double-digit seeds you can back with confidence, all from the model that called all four Final Four teams in 2025.