NFL.com Predicts Trouble for the 2026 Vikings

NFL.com decided this week which teams will reach the postseason in 2026 and which will be left on the outside looking in — according to them. For the Minnesota Vikings, the fate was grim: no playoffs.

Minnesota may need its defense to carry the whole operation again.

That’s the word from Ali Bhanpuri and Tom Blair, who claimed Minnesota doesn’t quite have the juice to play meaningful January football.

O’Connell Faces a Pressure-Packed Season in Minnesota

Another playoff-less season?

Bhanpuri and Blair: Vikings Won’t Make Playoffs

Analyzing the playoff field for 2026, the NFL.com pair decided Minnesota would not make the cut.

Blair explained, “Will the Vikings make the playoffs? Ali: No. Tom: No. Falling to 4-6 with a Week 11 loss to the Niners in Mexico City sparks unpleasant memories of last season — which are quickly wiped out by a 6-1 finish.”

“I realize this is peak offseason dot-connecting, but I can’t resist visions of Kyler Murray (presuming he beats J.J. McCarthy for the QB1 job) giving Kevin O’Connell the exact quarterbacking upgrade this otherwise-solid roster needs to compete again. And the strong stretch run isn’t just the product of scheduling luck; it includes wins over no-joke opponents like the Panthers, Patriots, Lions and Bears.”

Oddsmakers expect Minnesota to win eight or nine games in 2026.

Blair continued, “So, though Minnesota barely misses the party, the season offers plenty to build on. Toughest game to call: Week 14 at Patriots. The Pats’ search for a hero QB in the 2024 NFL Draft helped pave the way to Super Bowl LX; the Vikings’ search for a hero QB in that same draft, meanwhile, has not gone as well.”

“But in Week 14, Minnesota’s prime-time road win strikes a momentary blow for the find a competent veteran signal-caller theory of team-building.”

Why They May Be Right

Minnesota started the 2025 campaign with a nauseating 4-8 record, plagued by a terrible offense, even worse quarterback play, a failure to run the football, and an inability to force turnovers. In the backdrop, the defense remained steady, and the kicker forged an All-Pro resume.

After hitting rock bottom in a game at the Seattle Seahawks, the Vikings rebounded, winning their final five games and finishing 9-8. The defense set the tone.

For NFL.com to be right — the Vikings miss the postseason — the quarterback efficiency would likely emulate last year’s doldrums. For instance, perhaps Murray just doesn’t adjust to O’Connell’s offense, or maybe injuries keep him sidelined. As in the first few months last year, the main item that could sink the 2026 Vikings is lackadaisical quarterback play.

Why They May Be Wrong

On the other hand, the path to the playoffs may feel more likely. Why? Well, the defense is already there for Minnesota. Brian Flores’s group didn’t finish third-best in the league per DVOA and EPA/Play in 2025 by accident.

Murray also has a consistent track record of production; suggesting that he’ll flop under O’Connell’s coaching — the guy known by many as a “quarterback whisperer” — seems unlikely. And the Vikings still have offensive weaponry in the form of Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, Jauan Jennings, T.J. Hockenson, Aaron Jones, and Jordan Mason.

The aforementioned O’Connell also owns the NFL’s fifth-best win percentage on his watch. He knows how to win when his quarterback is healthy.

If the Vikings prove Bhanpuri and Blair wrong, it will be because Flores’s defense did not regress, Murray played like peak Murray, and the offensive weaponry took care of the rest.

An Important Year for the Head Coach

While O’Connell, indeed, is a Top 5 skipper by win percentage, his Vikings have not won a playoff game with him on the sidelines, and, in fact, haven’t prevailed in a postseason contest overall since 2019.

The Vikings’ owners love O’Connell, but he may not have job security forever. For example, if Minnesota finished around 5-12 or 6-11 in 2026, the franchise might contemplate a head coach change. If not, it would enter Year No. 6 of the O’Connell era with zero playoff triumphs, which is nearly unprecedented in NFL history.

The Viking Age‘s Nik Edlund noted on O’Connell earlier this offseason, “O’Connell will be under immense pressure this season, and a trip to the playoffs may not be enough to keep his job. JJ McCarthy’s progress will be detrimental to O’Connell’s future tenure as the Vikings’ head coach.”

“If he has more downs than ups in 2026 and doesn’t show any growth or shed more light on whether he’s the quarterback of the future, that will reflect very poorly on O’Connell’s ability to develop a young quarterback. If the Vikings make it to the playoffs because the defense is carrying them and they are winning despite McCarthy and not because of him, O’Connell could still get the ax.”

O’Connell doesn’t have to be expressly on the “hot seat,” but he’d be much better off if he reached the playoffs in 2026 and won at least one game.

It’s just that Bhanpuri and Blair don’t think that will happen.

Dustin Baker is a novelist and political scientist. His second novel, The Invaders , is out now. So is … More about Dustin Baker