Confirmation of Hunter Greene’s elbow injury came down Tuesday, and while it wasn’t quite the worst-case scenario, Greene is going to have surgery and miss most of the first half of the season, the team announced.
Greene will have arthroscopic surgery to clean up bone spurs in his right elbow and is not expected to return until July. That decision came after a second opinion from Dr. Neal ElAttrache, and the surgery will carry a 14-to-16 week timetable to return to the majors.
The early part of that timetable could see Greene back just before the All-Star break, though any kind of delay would push him back to the second half of the season. And of course, while this is viewed as a fairly minor surgical procedure, the ligaments in his elbow are healthy, apparently, so it’s more about cleaning up loose bodies – a full return to play at the same level as before is never a guarantee when a pitcher goes under the knife.
That’s a blow for the Reds and for Fantasy players, who had been drafting Greene as an ace before this injury. He could still give us about a half-season of ace-level production, but that would require him to come back from this surgery without any setbacks and be himself when he does. It’s possible, but there’s also plenty of ways for things to go wrong along the way.
One example is Walker Buehler, who had a bone spur removed in July of 2022 and was given a similar timetable to Greene. However, his recovery didn’t go as planned, and he ultimately required Tommy John surgery later that same season. He was also dealing with a flexor strain along with the bone spur surgery, which could explain the complications, but nonetheless, that is a prominent example of another ace having a season ruined after a relatively minor cleanup procedure.
Ultimately, there’s no such thing as minor elbow surgery for any pitcher, but this is about as minor as you can hope for when they have to open a guy up. Greene dealt with this issue late last season and is having surgery now with the plan to be ready for the stretch run of a season where the Reds very much plan to be alive for the postseason, which certainly gives Greene an incentive to get back for the second half.
The good news for the Reds is they do have the pitching depth to survive an injury to their ace. They have a solid pitching staff already, with hope for Nick Lodolo to take a step forward after a solid 2025. But the bigger hope for truly replacing Greene’s impact is for Chase Burns to emerge as an ace in his own right. He shares a lot of similarities with Greene as a pitcher, and could have a similar ceiling if he stays healthy and throws enough strikes. With an open rotation spot, Burns seems all but certain to be in there for the Reds – not that there was much skepticism that he would win a spot, with Burns’ ADP holding steady just outside the top 100 in most drafts.
But he was in a competition for the fifth starter spot, and this injury also seemingly confirms that Rhett Lowder, another former first-rounder, will be in the rotation. Lowder, the team’s 2023 first-round pick, made his MLB debut for a cup of coffee in 2024, but struggled with injuries in 2025 while throwing just 9.1 innings in the minors. He’s healthy this spring, throwing well, and has 10 strikeouts to two walks in 8.2 innings. He doesn’t have near the upside of Greene or Burns, but Lowder has the upside to be an above-average strikeout pitcher with great groundball rates. I could see some outcomes like what we’ve gotten from Chris Bassitt in recent years – not a superstar, but a useful pitcher for Fantasy. Add him to the late-round flier pile, especially if the early-season schedule looks beatable.
As for Greene, it depends on what kind of league you’re in. In a 15-team or NL-only league, it’s harder to justify drafting him as anything more than a reserve rounds pick, especially if you don’t have a lot of IL spots to play with. But in leagues with robust IL spots and shallower rosters overall, the replacement level on the wire is high enough that Greene is an interesting stash candidate. You’d have to let Gerrit Cole and Carlos Rodon go off the board before you look Greene’s way, since their timetables should have them back before Greene.
But I would still take a flier on Greene after the top 200 or so are off the board in those shallower leagues with IL spots. Stick him in an IL spot and go add your favorite late-round sleeper who might go undrafted – Andrew Painter, Parker Messick, or Mike Burrows, Sean Manaea, Jacob Lopez, or whoever, there is no shortage of options! – and hope you catch lightning in a bottle for a few months.
And if Greene comes back and pitches like himself, you could still end up with 80-90 innings of ace-level production. That’ll be worth waiting for, even if it’s not as much of a guarantee as you’d like.
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