No. 2 Iowa State vs. No. 7 Kentucky NCAA Tournament Second Round predictions: Odds, recent stats, trends, and best bets

The momentum Iowa State gained from a dominant 108–74 victory over Tennessee State in the First Round, is tempered by the uncertain status of Second-Team All-American Joshua Jefferson as the Cyclones prepare for a Second Round game against the Kentucky Wildcats. Jefferson suffered an ankle injury in the opening minutes of the game against the Tigers and did not return. He is listed on the injury report as doubtful. Without Jefferson, who leads the team averaging nearly 17 points per game, the Cyclones will be forced to lean more on their top-tier defense and the outside shooting of Milan Momcilovic, who is currently hitting nearly 50% from three-point range and point guard Tamin Lipsey.

Kentucky takes the court Sunday at the Enterprise Center following a dramatic 89–84 overtime escape against Santa Clara. Otega Oweh forced overtime with a game-tying buzzer-beater a few dribbles across midcourt. Under Head Coach Mark Pope, the Wildcats run a high-octane offense and with Jefferson possibly sidelined for Iowa State, the pedal will be put to the floor for 40 minutes.

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To pull off the upset and reach back-to-back Sweet 16s, Kentucky must leverage their rebounding advantage against an Iowa State team that has struggled at times on the glass even with a healthy Jefferson. It would not hurt Pope’s crew to shoot the ball as they did against Santa Clara when they knocked down 51% of the shots they took.

This is the second meeting between these schools. Kentucky took out ISU in that meeting, 87-71. The winner advances to the Sweet 16 and a date against the winner of Tennessee and Virginia.

Lets take a closer look at this Round 2 matchup and take into consideration lineups, injuries, and other factors affecting the line and total.

We’ve got all the info and analysis you need to know ahead of the game, including the latest info on how to catch tipoff, odds courtesy of DraftKings recent team performance, player stats, and of course, our predictions, picks best bets for the game from our modeling tools and staff of experts.

Game Details and How to Watch Live: Iowa State vs. Kentucky

• Date: Sunday, March 22, 2026

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Game Odds: Iowa State vs. Kentucky

The latest odds as of Saturday courtesy of DraftKings:

• Moneyline: Iowa State Cyclones (-218), Kentucky Wildcats (+180)

This game opened Iowa State -5.5 with the Total set at 145.5.

Be sure to check out DraftKings for all the latest game odds & player props for every matchup this week on the NCAA Basketball schedule!

Expected Starting Lineups: Iowa State vs. Kentucky

Iowa State Cyclones

Kentucky Wildcats

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Important stats, trends and insights: Iowa State vs. Kentucky

• Iowa State is 22-13 ATS overall this season

• Kentucky is 18-17 ATS overall this season

• The OVER has cashed in 18 of Kentucky’s 35 games this season (18-17)

• The OVER has cashed in only 16 of Iowa State’s 35 games this season (16-19)

• Otega Oweh scored 35 points, pulled down 8 boards, and dished out 7 assists in 43 minutes Friday

• Nate Heise came off the bench Friday to score 22 points for the Cyclones including 4-5 from deep

Rotoworld Best Bet

Please bet responsibly. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call the National Gambling Helpline at 1-800-522-4700.

Our model calculates projections around each moneyline, spread and over/under bet for every game on the NCAA calendar based on data points like recent performance, head-to-head player matchups, trends information and projected game totals.

Once the model is finished running, we put its projections next to the latest betting lines for the game to arrive at a relative confidence level for each wager.

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Here are the best bets our model is projecting for Sunday’s game between Iowa State and Kentucky:

• Moneyline: Rotoworld Bet is staying away from a play on the Moneyline

• Spread: Rotoworld Bet is leaning towards a play on Kentucky +4.5

• Total: Rotoworld Bet is leaning towards a play on the Game Total OVER 145.5

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