Match Details

Fixture: (2) Jannik Sinner vs (11) Daniil Medvedev

Date: March 15, 2026

Tournament: BNP Paribas Open 2026

Round: Final

Category: Masters 1000

Venue: Indian Wells Tennis Garden, Indian Wells, California, USA

Surface: Hard (outdoor)

Prize Money: $9,415,725

Live Telecast: USA – Tennis Channel | UK – Sky Sports | Canada – TSN, TVA Sports, DAZN

Jannik Sinner vs Daniil Medvedev preview

Second seed Jannik Sinner will face 11th seed Daniil Medvedev in the Indian Wells final. Whoever wins will be the first male singles champion from their respective countries at the Masters 1000 event.

Sinner has won 12 out of 14 matches so far this season, currently enjoying his first final run at a tournament in 2026. The Italian previously competed at the Australian Open and the Qatar Open, reaching the semifinals and quarterfinals, respectively. Sinner is yet to drop a set in Indian Wells, beating the likes of Dalibor Svrcina, Denis Shapovalov, Joao Fonseca, and Alexander Zverev en route to the final.

Apart from his fourth-round match against Fonseca that ended 7-6(6), 7-6(4), Sinner wasn’t really pushed in any of his other fixtures. The Italian has dropped 28 games so far in Indian Wells.

Medvedev’s win-loss record a day before last year’s Indian Wells final was 12-6. Fast forward a year, and the Russian has won 18 out of 21 matches so far in 2026 and is competing in the final of the Masters 1000 event. He has had an incredible start to the season and has already won two titles in Brisbane and Dubai.

Like Sinner, Medvedev is also yet to drop a single set in Indian Wells and has dropped just 25 games so far. The Russian reached the semifinals after defeating Alejandro Tabilo, Sebastian Baez, Alex Michelsen, and defending champion Jack Draper. Here, he beat Carlos Alcaraz for the first time since the 2023 US Open to reach his third Indian Wells final.

Jannik Sinner vs Daniil Medvedev head-to-head

Sinner had a narrow 8-7 head-to-head lead between the two, winning eight of their last nine fixtures. Their most recent encounter came in the round robin of the 2024 ATP Finals, with the Italian winning 6-3, 6-4.

Jannik Sinner vs Daniil Medvedev odds

All odds sourced from BETMGM.

Jannik Sinner vs Daniil Medvedev prediction

Sinner will enter the match as the favorite to win but Medvedev will be high on confidence after defeating Alcaraz, and there is a very good chance of him giving the Italian a run for his money.

Sinner has won 136 out of 162 points (~83.9%) on his first serve so far in Indian Wells, serving 41 aces. The Italian has amassed 110 winners compared to just 32 unforced errors, and has won 33 out of 39 points (~84.6%) at the net. Sinner’s enormous amount of success over the past couple of years has been attributed to his tennis as well as his mentality, so Medvedev will have to be at his best.

The Russian’s first-serve numbers in Indian Wells have been decent but not as good as Sinner’s, winning 132 out of 174 points (~75.9%) and amassing 28 aces. He has produced 90 winners and 88 unforced errors while winning 22 out of 28 (~78.6%) points at the net.

Medvedev’s style has always centered around efficiency, and that is probably what his plans will be in the final. That said, he has to be careful not to serve too many unforced errors.

While Medvedev is in impressive form. Sinner’s composure seems tough to break, and the Italian should manage to come out on top and become only the second Indian Wells singles champion from his country, the first being Flavia Pennetta.

Pick: Sinner to win in three sets.

Jannik Sinner vs Daniil Medvedev betting tips

Tip 1: Both players to serve over ten aces each.

Tip 2: Two sets to go to tiebreaks.