Picking all 63 NCAA Tournament games with 63 reasons why each team will win

One March, when I was in middle school, I raced to the school bus and pulled out my cellphone. It was March Madness, and instead of being able to sit at home and watch basketball all day, I had been forced to go to school. The horror!

This was before smart phones, of course. I knew even spending a minute or two trying to fetch the Internet on this now-archaic flip phone would cost a bazillion dollars … and that I would barely be able to decipher the scores on the tiny screen displaying a not-mobile-friendly website … and that my parents would question why they had a huge charge on the phone bill. But I couldn’t resist. I was hooked. How was my bracket doing? I had to know. Sorry, mom and dad.

Fast forward to 2025, and all of that obsessing paid off. I won’t lie: Last year’s bracket was … really good. I got multiple “thank you” messages from people who had won bracket pools by copying it, and that filled me with as much joy as me winning my own bracket pools. OK, not really. But it did mean a lot.

Years like last year only come around every once in a while. I have been watching a ton of college hoops for years. I have never done as well as I did last year. I might never do as well as I did last year. Think of everything that has to go right in a bracket. Florida had to pull off so many comebacks last year. If one of those comebacks doesn’t happen, my bracket stinks. Same for Derik Queen’s buzzer beater, Duke’s stunning collapse against Houston, etc. etc. etc.

Basically, you can do all the work and still get it wrong. That’s March Madness. That’s basketball. That’s life.

But the work still matters. Watching a lifetime-high amount of college basketball last year did help. So did all the research. I watched a ton of games, consulted a bunch of websites and learned from my excellent colleagues at CBS Sports, who have done a tremendous job this year. Luck, they say, is when preparation meets opportunity.

Then comes the hard part: Actually making the picks. There are so many things to consider, but at the end of the day, you have to chose one victor, over and over again. Somewhere along the way, I started doing 63 picks in 63 sentences. Boil it down and pick a winner.

I haven’t watched as much college basketball this year — I’m now an NFL writer here at CBS Sports — but I’ve still watched a lot. I still have my principles: Good guards win in March, experience matters, versatility is crucial, yada yada yada.

So let’s give it another spin: 63 picks, 63 sentences. Let’s make middle-school me proud again.

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First round

East

• (1) Duke over (16) Siena: Duke’s injuries worry me, but not yet.
• (8) Ohio State over (9) TCU: Bruce Thornton is finally in the NCAA Tournament in his fourth season with the Buckeyes, and he’ll make it count.
• (5) St. John’s over (12) Northern Iowa: The Panthers will make it tough with their slow pace, but Zuby Ejiofor will be too much to handle.
• (4) Kansas over (13) Cal Baptist: The Jayhawks are the hardest No. 4 seed to project given Darryn Peterson’s stop-and-start year and the team-wide inconsistency, too.
• (6) Louisville over (11) South Florida: I was really high on the Cardinals entering the season, but they haven’t come close to being the sum of their parts; I’ll take them here, though, thanks to Ryan Conwell.
• (3) Michigan State over (14) North Dakota State: The Spartans are too big, too tough and too athletic.
• (7) UCLA over (10) UCF: The Bruins’ guards lead the way here.
• (2) UConn over (15) Furman: The Paladins have pulled upsets before, but it won’t happen here.

West

Midwest

South

• (1) Florida over (16) Prairie View A&M: The Gators looked tremendous entering the SEC Tournament, and they’ll regain their form.
• (8) Clemson over (9) Iowa: It pains me to see Bennett Stirtz go out this way, but there’s just not enough around him.
• (5) Vanderbilt over (12) McNeese: Tyler Tanner and Duke Miles form a tremendous backcourt, and Mark Byington can coach with anyone.
• (4) Nebraska over (13) Troy: The Huskers get their first-ever NCAA Tournament win.
• (11) VCU over (6) North Carolina: VCU was one of the most memorable Cinderellas in 2011, and 15 years later, the Rams pull another upset.
• (3) Illinois over (14) Penn: The Illini had some bumps down the stretch, but there’s way too much talent for them to fall short here.
• (10) Texas A&M over (7) Saint Mary’s: Prepare for Bucky Ball: Bucky McMillan’s Aggies will run and run and run.
• (2) Houston over (15) Idaho: These aren’t Kelvin Sampson’s best Cougars, but his guards are excellent.

Second round

East

• (1) Duke over (8) Ohio State: Cameron Boozer can carry the Blue Devils when needed, and he does so here.
• (4) Kansas over (5) St. John’s: Ejiofor against Big 12 Defensive Player of the Year Flory Bidunga will be must-watch stuff.
• (3) Michigan State over (6) Louisville: The Spartans dominate the glass, and their athleticism is off the charts.
• (2) UConn over (7) UCLA: Dan Hurley will have his troops ready to go, and Tarris Reed Jr. will have a big game.

West

• (1) Arizona over (9) Utah State: Montiejus Krivacs and the Wildcats are too big and too skilled. 
• (4) Arkansas over (5) Wisconsin: I’m trusting — against my normal judgment — youing guards, but Acuff just plays so far beyond his years.
• (3) Gonzaga over (6) BYU: I’d feel way more confident if Braden Huff could be back, but for now, I’ll trust Ike to make up the difference.
• (2) Purdue over (10) Missouri: I heavily considered the Tigers here, but ultimately I couldn’t get there due to the turnover issues.

Midwest

• (1) Michigan over (8) Georgia: The Bulldgos just don’t have the “dogs” up front to hang with Aday Mara, Morez Johnson and Yaxel Lendeborg.
• (5) Texas Tech over (4) Alabama: Anderson is one of my favorite players in the sport, and Grant McCasland does a terrific job.
• (3) Virginia over (6) Tennessee: I was encouraged by Virginia’s showing in the ACC Tournament; guard Malik Thomas is a guy who can lift the ‘Hoos from a Tournament team to a second-weekend team, and he played well in Charlotte.
• (2) Iowa State over (7) Kentucky: Get to know Joshua Jefferson, one of the least-appreciated stars nationally.

South

• (1) Florida over (8) Clemson: Thomas Haugh was a big reason I took the Gators to win it all last year, and he’ll be a big reason they march onto the Sweet 16.
• (5) Vanderbilt over (4) Nebraska: The Huskers struggled down the stretch, while the Commodores surged.
• (3) Illinois over (11) VCU: Kylan Boswell and Keaton Wagler will lead the way in what should be a really fun contest.
• (2) Houston over (10) Texas A&M: Kingston Flemings might get the most praise, but Milos Uzan and Emanuel Sharp are the heartbeat here.

Sweet 16

East

• (1) Duke over (4) Kansas: Since Valentine’s Day, the Jayhawks are 1-4 away from home against NCAA Tournament teams, and here, they struggle again facing Duke’s excellent defense.
• (2) UConn over (3) Michigan State: The Huskies at their best are among the very elite in the sport, while the Spartans, even at their best, are just a half-step below.

West

• (1) Arizona over (4) Arkansas: The Wildcats have so much defensive ability and length, and they’ll be able to limit Acuff enough.
• (2) Purdue over (3) Gonzaga: I don’t have a ton of trust in either of their teams, but I’m going with the experienced big three of Braden Smith, Trey Kaufman-Renn and Oscar Cluff as my fallback decider.

Midwest

• (1) Michigan over (5) Texas Tech: The Wolverines will dominate up front.
• (2) Iowa State over (3) Virginia: The Cyclones simply have too many options and can space the floor with Jefferson and Milan Momcilovic in an effort to limit the Cavaliers’ excellent rim protection.

South

• (1) Florida over (5) Vanderbilt: In a rematch of the SEC Tournament semifinal, the Gators get revenge.
• (3) Illinois over (2) Houston: Finally, Brad Underwood wins a big, big NCAA Tournament game.

Elite Eight

East

• (1) Duke over (2) UConn: Keep an eye on Isaiah Evans throughout this tournament; the deadeye shooter takes Duke to another level when he’s on.

West

• (1) Arizona over (2) Purdue: I’ve gotten this deep and I still haven’t mentioned Jaden Bradley, the outstanding guard who will prove the difference here; Arizona’s massive size helps, too.

Midwest

• (2) Iowa State over (1) Michigan: The Wolverines were my title pick until LJ Cason tore his ACL, and his absence will be felt here against the relentless Cyclones.

South

• (1) Florida over (2) Houston: The Gators make back-to-back Final Fours, and their efficient offense takes advantage of a Houston defense that isn’t quite as good as recent Cougars teams have had.

Final Four

• (1) Florida over (2) UConn: In a rematch from last year’s second-round thriller, the Gators prevail again.
• (1) Arizona over (2) Iowa State: Again, it’s too much size, too much skill and too many options for the Wildcats.

National championship

• (1) Arizona over (1) Florida: Tommy Lloyd has had some disappointing NCAA Tournaments, but this time he’s a hero, and Arizona returns to the top of the basketball world for the first time since 1997.