Prisco’s Week 3 NFL picks: Browns upset Panthers, Giants rally behind Jameis Winston

The joys of a good Week 1 picking games turned into misery in Week 2.

So much for stacking good weeks.

I went 9-7 straight up, but a miserable 5-10 against the spread. Let’s just hope that’s the last bad week for a while.

My straight-up record for the season is now 21-11 and my ATS season mark is 15-17. 

Not good enough.

This week’s slate has some big games, but also some where I think an upset will happen and I probably differ on the pick in those games than most.

I have Tampa Bay beating Minnesota and Cleveland beating Carolina. Those two games might be key to me getting back on track. One bad week is all I can take.

All lines via DraftKings; All times ET

Atlanta Falcons at Green Bay Packers (-5.5)

• Thursday, 8:15 p.m. on Amazon Prime

This will be Michael Penix back in at quarterback for the Falcons, who badly need it. The Packers rallied to beat the Jets last week, thanks to the defense. That defense will play well here as well. Jordan Love gets it going if the banged-up line can hold up. I think they will.

Pick: Packers 27, Falcons 17

Los Angeles Chargers at Buffalo Bills (-7)

• Sunday, 1 p.m. on Fox (Stream: Fubo — try for free)

The Chargers are a disaster at 0-2 and playing bad football. Buffalo has played well in its 2-0 start. Can the Chargers contain Josh Allen? I don’t think they can, and Justin Herbert won’t keep up in the Chargers’ first road game. Bills take it. 

Pick: Bills 32, Chargers 23

Carolina Panthers at Cleveland Browns (+2.5)

• Sunday, 1 p.m. on Fox (Stream: Fubo — try for free)

The Panthers are out on the road for the second straight week after blowing out the Falcons, while the Browns are playing their first home game. Bryce Young is rolling for the Panthers, but I think the Browns defense will play well again here as they did in Tampa last week. The Browns take it in an upset. 

Pick: Browns 23, Panthers 20

New York Jets at Detroit Lions (-6.5)

• Sunday, 1 p.m. on Fox (Stream: Fubo — try for free)

The Lions will have extra rest here as they welcome in their former defensive coordinator, Jets coach Aaron Glenn. The Jets are playing better on defense, but this is a big challenge against the Lions’ offense. The Detroit defense hasn’t been good, but they will play better here with the lead to win it. But it’s close.  

Pick: Lions 28, Jets 23

Houston Texans (-3) at Indianapolis Colts

These two both come in 0-2 and are in need of a victory. They can’t afford to go to 0-3. The Colts‘ defense has been bad, and the Texans‘ defense hasn’t lived up to the hype. But they will here. The Texans get their first victory as the offense comes to life against the Colts. 

Pick: Texans 31, Colts 20

Kansas City Chiefs (-11.5) at Miami Dolphins

The Chiefs are 2-0, but this is their first road game. It won’t matter. Miami is playing a lot of young players and building for the future. They won’t win many games, and they won’t win their first here. Look for a big day by the Chiefs and Patrick Mahomes. 

Pick: Chiefs 28, Dolphins 10

Tennessee Titans at New York Giants (-3)

The Titans are 0-2 and playing on the road for the first time this season. The Giants will be without starting quarterback Jaxson Dart, which means it’s Jameis Winston time. He wasn’t good in relief Monday night in the loss to the Rams, but he will be better here. Look for the Giants to rally around him in Dart’s absence. 

Pick: Giants 23, Titans 14

Cincinnati Bengals (-3.5) at Pittsburgh Steelers

The Bengals are playing a second-straight road game after beating the Texans last week. The defense had a big day, and that will be the case here. The Steelers have been limited on offense so far, so look for the Bengals to play well again on that side of the ball as they go to 3-0.  Joe Burrow and the offense should be better as well. 

Pick: Bengals 23, Steelers 13

Seattle Seahawks (-7) at Washington Commanders 

• Sunday, 1 p.m. on Fox (Stream: Fubo — try for free)

The Seahawks are out on the road for the second straight week, but they get a break playing Commanders backup quarterback Marcus Mariota. With Jayden Daniels out, the Seattle defense will have a much easier day. Drew Lock played well last week, and that will continue here. Seattle takes it. 

Pick: Seahawks 24, Commanders 13

New England Patriots at Jacksonville Jaguars (-3)

This is a big game for both teams. The Jaguars are coming off a tough road loss to the Broncos, while the Patriots beat the Steelers. The New England offense is sputtering, and that won’t change here. The Jaguars get back on track in a lower-scoring game. 

Pick: Jaguars 21, Patriots 16

Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers (-8.5)

• Sunday, 4:05 p.m. on Fox (Stream: Fubo — try for free)

The 49ers are 2-0 and playing as well as any team in the league. Arizona is coming off a loss to the Seahawks. This is a real challenge for the young Cardinals team, especially one that looked bad on offense last week. I don’t see Jacoby Brissett keeping up with Brock Purdy. 49ers take it. 

Pick: 49ers 30, Cardinals 17

Minnesota Vikings at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+1.5)

• Sunday, 4:25 p.m. on Fox (Stream: Fubo — try for free)

The Vikings are 2-0, while the Bucs are 0-2 and coming off a bad offensive showing in the upset loss against the Browns. That’s never a good way to go into a game against Brian Flores and the Vikings defense. Kyler Murray is back for the Vikings, but this one will be won by the Bucs defense. They finally step up. 

Pick: Bucs 21, Vikings 20

Baltimore Ravens (-3.5) at Dallas Cowboys (Brazil)

This is one of the games of the week, featuring Lamar Jackson vs. Dak Prescott. Baltimore suffered a bad home loss last week, but I think Jackson rebounds to lead the Ravens to a high-scoring victory. The Cowboys will also score with Prescott throwing it around as well. It’s too bad this isn’t on the fast track in Dallas. Even so, we will see many points. 

Pick: Ravens 33, Cowboys 30

Las Vegas Raiders at New Orleans Saints (-3)

This is suddenly an interesting game, given how these two have started. The Raiders are 2-0, and the Saints are 1-1 and could be 2-0 if not for a two-play sequence that was stopped. Look for the Saints to look good in their home opener with Tyler Shough having another good day.

Pick: Saints 21, Raiders 14

Los Angeles Rams (-2.5) at Denver Broncos 

• Sunday, 8:20 p.m. on NBC (Stream: Fubo — try for free)

This is a big game between two good teams coming off impressive victories. The Rams are playing on a short week and traveling, which is tough, but I think they will be up for it. The Denver defense played well against the Jaguars last week, but this offense is a step up and has a good offensive line. Look for Matt Stafford and the Rams to win it. 

Pick: Rams 30, Broncos 23

Philadelphia Eagles at Chicago Bears

• Monday, 8:15 p.m. on ESPN (Stream: Fubo — try for free)

The Eagles are playing consecutive road games, but the Bears will likely be without injured quarterback Caleb Williams and could be without backup Tyson Bagent. That would mean Case Keenum. That will change the dynamic of Chicago’s offense. The Eagles will limit the run game and win it behind their defense, with Jalen Hurts having a good day. 

Pick: Eagles 27, Bears 13