Road to the Playoffs: Raptors eye crucial showdowns with Heat

As the Ontario retirees who flock south for the winter to Orlando and Miami start to make their way back north, they might realize they’ve come back a little too soon.

One day, it’s a picturesque spring day in Toronto, people are biking down the Martin Goodman Trail and waiting for the cherry blossoms to bloom in High Park. The next, a sharp wind pierces through your puffer jacket and the wind tunnels of the downtown core make it feel like January once more.

It’s an up-and-down, back-and-forth life in Canada’s biggest city, one best personified by the consistent inconsistency of the Toronto Raptors.

Once a shoo-in for a top-six seed in the East, the Raptors are far from a sure thing with four games left in the regular season. They’ll put together dominant wins over fellow play-in competitors like the Orlando Magic, then drop gimmes against the Sacramento Kings. At least you can always count on them losing to teams like the Pistons and Celtics.

But who they choose to be in this final week of the season will define the season as a whole: Can they claim the battle of the snowbirds and subject the Miami Heat to a play-in spot? Or will a promising season turn into a fight for their lives in the win-and-you’re-in play-in tourney?

In the final four games, the Raptors are set to host the Heat twice — on Tuesday and Thursday — then visit the Knicks on Friday in the second half of a back-to-back, and lastly lighten their load with a showdown against the Brooklyn Nets at Scotiabank Arena.

Against their compatriots in the battle for the play-in (those in the 5-10 range: The Hawks, Heat, 76ers and Magic), the Raptors have a 10-3 record this year, so the signs are pointing in the right direction for the two-game set against Miami. But as we learned when Bam Adebayo (of all players!) scored 83 points earlier this season, there’s no such thing as a sure thing in the NBA — except for a Raptors loss to the Celtics. All the more reason to avoid the play-in!

So with just a week to go until the end of the regular season, here’s what you need to keep an eye on in the 401-esque congested road to the playoffs.

There’s this meme template online of a guy sitting in a little bodega-style restaurant, listening to music without a care in the world, while a group of people are in the background throwing hands. The guy sitting down represents you, the audience, listening to Rumours by Fleetwood Mac, while the people fighting represent Fleetwood Mac.

Hope that those top four seeds in the East like The Chain.

It’s easy living if you’re the Pistons or Celtics, in particular, as both appear set in their spots as the first and second seeds, respectively. While there’s still a possibility that New York takes over the second seed, Boston needs to win only one game to secure its spot.

While the cortisol might spike a little more if you’re the Cleveland Cavaliers, who close the season with two games against the Atlanta Hawks and one against the Washington Wizards, there’s a sense of safety sitting outside of the play-in picture looking in. It could also benefit them to not show too much of their hand as they gear up for a potential 4-5 series against Atlanta in the first round.

But, like Dante’s Inferno, it gets scarier the further down you go.

The battle for the Nos. 5-10 seeds is coming down to the wire.

Only two games separate the Hawks in fifth from the Magic in ninth, and the same goes for the Raptors in sixth and the Heat in 10th. Meaning that a bad two-game set for the Hawks against Cleveland can ruin an otherwise incredible turn of fortune, or the Raptors getting swept at the hands of the Heat can turn a season of growth into a fight for relevancy once again.

The Charlotte Hornets, meanwhile, have a tough road ahead with games against the top three seeds in the East. However, they’ve managed to nab wins against the Celtics and Knicks already this season, and behind the fourth-ranked offence in the NBA, it’s anyone’s game when players like LaMelo Ball, Brandon Miller and Kon Knueppel can get microwave hot.

On the other hand, the 76ers look to have the easiest remaining schedule, taking on tanking squads like the Pacers and Bucks — who they’re a combined 6-0 against this season — but a game against a Houston squad hoping to secure homecourt in the first round can still be a tough test for a 76ers team only just returning to health.

Crossing T’s and dotting I’s out West

Though the playoff picture is much clearer out West, with the top five seeds on their way to the playoffs and the No. 6 Timberwolves sitting pretty with a magic number of two, there are finer details that still need sorting out in the final week.

Permanently the centre of attention in the NBA, the most intriguing storyline out west could be the Lakers’ final stretch as they look to hold onto a top-three seed in the conference.

While the star backcourt duo of Luka Doncic and Austin Reaves could both be in Europe to seek medical advice, the onus of keeping the Lakers’ head above water rests on the shoulders of 41-year-old LeBron James and (checks notes) triple-double-threat Luke Kennard.

Heading into Tuesday’s action, the Lakers have lost two straight and are set to host the Thunder, who are sure to give it their all as they look to lock up the top seed and prevent the Spurs’ late-season push.

Past that, the Lakers square off against the Warriors, Suns and Jazz, which should be simpler matchups on paper, but James’ 30-point, 15-assist double-double on Sunday wasn’t enough to get the Lakers past the Mavericks, so chalking anything up is a mistake. Factor in the pride-on-the-line showdowns against Steph Curry and Dillon Brooks, and it’s clear the Lakers aren’t securing homecourt without a fight.

However, should the Lakers succeed in the final stretch, a tough schedule for the Denver Nuggets could be just what they need to steal the third seed. Though Denver is on a nine-game win streak heading into Tuesday, it’ll close the regular season against the Spurs and Thunder, with the pairing of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Victor Wembanyama hoping to put the finishing touches on their MVP cases.

The Lakers will also have to contend with a surging Rockets team carrying the momentum of a six-game win streak, while the Suns and 76ers are sure to put their best foot forward on Tuesday and Thursday, games against the T-Wolves — whose seeding could be decided by Friday — and Grizzlies, that will give them some reprieve to close the year as they gun for homecourt.

The other battle to watch in the West is between the Clippers and Blazers, who are within half games of one another. Should both teams keep pace, a showdown between the two sides on Friday could be the deciding factor that determines the final play-in picture.