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For those wondering about the state of play for oil prices, gasoline, and stocks, here’s what President Trump said this afternoon: “I think the war is very complete, pretty much. They have no navy, no communications, they’ve got no Air Force.” And that America is “very far” ahead of his initial four-week to five-week estimated time frame.

Soon after the President’s statement, oil fell to $85 a barrel after topping $100 a barrel earlier in the day and stocks ended up rising more than 200 points.

And I have faith in him and his initial judgements, which have been superb. And I also have faith in the American people to stand behind Mr. Trump’s epic fury in order to change the course of history, and completely shift the international landscape and change the world’s balance of power in favor of America, the Western democracies, of course Israel, and our friends in the Middle East. I even saw a 52 percent favorable Rasmussen poll.  

As I’ve said before, this is like the Berlin Wall coming down with President Reagan ending Soviet Communism. Or FDR ending fascism in World War II. And Mr. Trump ending ISIS in the first term, and now ending the barbaric terror state Iran, to finally conclude Iran’s 47-year forever war against America. A temporary blip in gasoline prices is a very small price to pay to achieve literally world-shattering results.

Mr. Trump is bending the arc of history toward freedom and prosperity. If you’re looking for economic impact estimates, there are a dime a dozen, and I wouldn’t put any confidence in any of them right now. Inflation, recession, stagflation.

I suppose it all depends on the duration of the war, which is unknowable, but it’s not going to be six months or twelve months or longer. Therefore, why bother to guesstimate?

We can say this factually, through the third quarter of 2025, according to OPEC, world oil production was 106.3 million barrels per day, more than world oil demand which was 105.5 million barrels per day.

If you take out a fifth of oil production because the Strait of Hormuz is not functioning, of course you have a dire Strait. But Mr. Trump is moving rapidly to reopen Hormuz with reinsurance guarantees and United States Navy protection. When? Probably a week or two, maybe less.

Iran will never stop this. And if they dare, it will make matters even more catastrophic for them. Hormuz will not stop history. Investors should look through this war and see the enormous prosperity that lies on the other side. And ordinary American working folks should celebrate the greatness of America.

This article was written by

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Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have a beneficial long position in the shares of MU, AMD, NVDA, AMZN, MSFT, META either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

The information, opinions, and thoughts included in this article do not constitute an investment recommendation or any form of investment advice.

Seeking Alpha’s Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.

Federal Reserve policymakers are monitoring the conflict with Iran for its potential impact on inflation and consumer prices, as energy prices have jumped since the outbreak of hostilities.

Oil prices briefly surged over $100 a barrel amid fears of supply disruptions caused by the conflict with Iran, which threatens to stem the flow of oil from the Persian Gulf through the Strait of Hormuz. 

Gasoline prices at the pump have also risen for consumers since the outset of the conflict, which could push inflation data higher and complicate potential interest rate cuts by Federal Reserve policymakers.

New York Fed President John Williams said last week that while there is uncertainty over the impact of the war on the U.S. economy and inflation, past instances in which oil prices surged didn’t lead to a fundamental shift in the outlook.

AMID IRAN WAR, PRESIDENT TRUMP SUGGESTS SHORT-TERM OIL PRICE SPIKE IS ‘SMALL PRICE TO PAY’ FOR PEACE

New York Fed President John Williams said the central bank will have to wait and see how the Iran war will impact energy prices and inflation. (Al Drago/Bloomberg via Getty Images)

“Nobody can be sure how long this will last or the broader implications… Past experience has shown that movements in oil prices that we’ve seen so far don’t fundamentally shift the economy, but we’ll wait and see,” Williams told reporters after a conference hosted by America’s Credit Unions.

He noted that the war with Iran is “one of those developments that can hit both of our mandated goals in a kind of opposing way in the short term – raise inflation and maybe slow global growth,” but added that the transmission through financial markets had been “reasonably muted.”

Williams added that interest rate cuts will “eventually” be warranted if inflation eases in line with his expectations.

GAS PRICES SURGE AS IRAN CONFLICT RATTLES GLOBAL OIL MARKETS, PUSHING US CRUDE ABOVE $90

Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said the Middle East conflict has caused him to question his forecast for one interest rate cut this year. (Victor J. Blue/Bloomberg via Getty Images)

Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said at an event hosted by Bloomberg last week that “it’s just too soon to know what imprint this has on inflation and for how long.”

Kashkari also told Bloomberg that he’s now less confident about his original forecast for one interest rate cut this year, saying that “with the geopolitical events, we need to get a lot more data in.”

Boston Fed President Susan Collins said in the text of a speech to be delivered Friday that “I do not see an urgency for additional policy adjustments” and intends to take a “patient, deliberate approach as appropriate” as she considers her outlook for inflation, jobs and rate cuts.

US WEIGHS ASKING CHINA TO CURB RUSSIAN, IRANIAN OIL PURCHASES

Boston Fed President Susan Collins said the Middle East hostilities are a source of considerable uncertainty for the economic outlook. (Vanessa Leroy/Bloomberg via Getty Images)

“My baseline features a still-uncertain inflation picture, with continued upside risks,” Collins said, adding that “this, combined with recent evidence suggesting a relatively stable labor market, in my view argues for maintaining policy rates at their current, mildly restrictive levels for some time.”

Collins added that in her outlook, “considerable economic uncertainty remains, exacerbated by recent geopolitical developments like the hostilities in the Middle East.”

The Fed’s monetary policy panel, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), will hold its next meeting to determine interest rate policy on March 17-18.

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The market expects the FOMC will leave interest rates unchanged at their current target range of 3.5% to 3.75%, with the CME FedWatch tool showing a 97.4% of no cut in March.

Reuters contributed to this report.

Benjamin Mayo
Leerink Partners LLC, Research Division

I thought it would be maybe helpful to start since Todd is relatively new to the organization joining in a time of change and you’ve been at other places in your career. I wanted to hear kind of observations around some of the strengths and weaknesses that you’ve identified within either the company operations, the finance functions. And maybe we’ll just start there.

Todd Young
Chief Financial Officer

Sure. Yes. I joined Acadia 4 months ago, right at the end of October. So still new, getting used to being on the services side of health care grew up on the product side, including at Acadia Pharma, which has created a little confusion as I joined Acadia Healthcare.

Overall, the company is in a really good spot from a market positioning standpoint. The demand for our services continue to grow, and we’ve got a nice diversified business across both the acute inpatient, specialty inpatient, residential as well as the outpatient business with our opioid replacement therapy, what we call CTC. So I think all of those give us a really good spot to drive growth from.

Overall, I mean, the organization is very pleased that Debbie Osteen is back as CEO. Debbie joined us back in mid-January. And so her history in the industry and her proven track record of operating facilities is really something that’s breathed fresh life into the employee base and