Stars setting up Senators for a deep playoff run — if they get in

OTTAWA — Outside forces have been good to the Ottawa Senators but, more importantly, their inside forces have been even better.

“We want playoffs!” and “Brady, Brady!” chants punctuated the Canadian Tire Centre on Sunday during a monumentally important and convincing 6-3 victory over the Carolina Hurricanes. The game was potentially a preview of a first-round matchup. As a result, as of Sunday’s end of business, the Senators sat one point ahead of their nearest rivals in a wild-card spot to make the playoffs. 

Stars got to be your stars, and the Senators sure have good ones. 

“You always think back to you being a kid, and you never expect that to happen ever in your life,” said Tkachuk, about the fans chanting his name. “And, yeah, I mean, it still brings a smile to my face.”

The night before, Senators head coach Travis Green felt his best players didn’t play well enough against the Minnesota Wild in a deflating 4-1 loss. Well, their stars responded. 

“You got to love playing in these types of games. You want players that step up when the stakes are the highest,” said Green. 

At his best, Tkachuk has been the emotional leader and a driver of play for his team, and his play was elevated Sunday night with two goals in a must-win game.  

In a memorable game several weeks ago, Tkachuk dropped the gloves off the opening face-off and then snatched a win against the New York Islanders with a goal in the final seconds of regulation. Now, the Senators have vaulted past the Islanders in the standings.  

The analytics back it up: Tkachuk is fourth in the NHL in expected-goals share (minimum 500 minutes played) at five-on-five. His line, along with Dylan Cozens and Ridly Greig, is first in the league in expected goals share amongst forward lines that have played at least 250 minutes. 

The Sens captain has been criticized for his podcast, which can stir the waters among fans and in the locker room. And his coach admitted that No. 7 was fatigued after the Olympics. Nevertheless, the ol’ Brady was in gear Sunday with five hits. 

Meanwhile, Stutzle’s goal on Sunday was peak German engineering. 

“It was a superstar moment,” said Tkachuk.

Since the 2024-25 campaign, Stutzle is 11th in wins above replacement, according to Evolving Hockey. We’ve said this before, but when a stat has Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, Quinn Hughes, Nathan MacKinnon and Nikita Kucherov in the top 10, you know it’s indicative of superstardom. 

Don’t forget the contributions by Sanderson, whose insertion into the lineup completely changes the dynamic of the Senators. Sanderson said he was rusty in his debut on Saturday against the Wild; not so much on Sunday, quarterbacking what had been a dormant power play to success while helping to keep one of the best shot-generating teams in the NHL to just 28 shots.

“He’s a Norris defenceman for a reason,” said Tkachuk. “When you have a top-five defenceman in the NHL back in your lineup, it just gives you a boost of energy.”

The Sanderson-Artem Zub pairing is legitimately one of the game’s best and gives the Senators a weapon most teams don’t have. The Senators sorely missed that for the previous month when their No. 1 defenceman was out with an injury. 

Among defensive pairs that have played over 400 minutes this season, the Senators have the top two pairs in terms of expected goals shared: Tyler Kleven and Jordan Spence are first, with Sanderson and Zub second. Given that Sanderson-Zub routinely matches up against the likes of McDavid and MacKinnon, that’s an indication of their effectiveness. 

The Senators didn’t carry the play in most games without Sanderson; expect that to change now in Ottawa’s favour. 

The stars may be aligning in Ottawa for a deep playoff run. 

Resiliency: There’s a reason the Presidents’ Trophy winner rarely wins the Stanley Cup: they haven’t faced enough adversity. 

And, boy, have the Senators faced enough injuries, made-for-TV drama and on-ice adversity. 

On Jan. 24, the Senators were 10 points out of a playoff spot; today, they are at a 71 per cent chance of participating in the fight for Lord Stanley, according to Moneypuck.com. 

The out-of-town scoreboard has blessed the Senators lately. Before Sunday, the Senators had gone 1-3-1 yet maintained their playoff position because the Columbus Blue Jackets, Detroit Red Wings and the New York Islanders (now led by Pete DeBoer) have fallen off a Parliament Hill-sized cliff. Unlike the Senators, most of them have flawed teams who routinely get outshot most nights but get propped up by excellent goaltending. 

“That’s a team that plays playoff hockey,” said Carolina’s Taylor Hall, talking about the Senators after Sunday’s game.

For two months, it seemed like every Senator win was immediately followed by wins for the teams they were chasing. Their opponents’ plunge back to reality is a welcome relief. 

Puck don’t lie: To do all of this while missing four of your top-six defencemen, and now three with Sanderson back, says how good this Senators team is. 

“It’s been crazy. I think we’re a little bit cursed right now on the back end. But guys have been playing awesome,” said Sanderson upon his return. 

The Senators have done well despite going up against a battle of attrition. Since Sanderson went down on March 7, the Senators have lost six defencemen to injury, including Sanderson until this weekend. In that time, they’ve gone 9-5-1, the ninth-best record since March 7. 

For a few worrisome moments on Sunday, it looked like Stutzle could be casualty after a nasty collision in the third, but he later returned. Stutzle did not speak to the media post-game because he was receiving treatment. But Green indicated Stutzle would be OK.

Plus, don’t think the drama surrounding Tkachuk and his podcast, and the unfortunate negativity surrounding Linus Ullmark’s mental health struggles haven’t made this season more draining than most seasons for the team. 

The Senators can look to the 2023 Florida Panthers that got into the playoffs in the last game of the season, only to make the Stanley Cup Finals. The Senators sit high in every statistical analytic category, from shot share to expected goal share, and their goaltending and penalty kill are improving. 

It all counts for nothing if the Senators don’t get in. If they do, you’d rather be a battle-tested warrior than a regular-season darling with few meaningful games down the stretch. 

Ullmark proves he’s ready: Ullmark played back-to-back nights on the weekend. After missing a game on March 28 to rest, some fans and hockey people were questioning his commitment to the team. Well, it’s clear he wants it. He’s now played in six of the Senators’ last seven games. Ullmark’s save percentage wasn’t great this weekend, but the Senators scored on themselves twice, so take that with a grain of salt. Ullmark is 25-12-8 this season. If Ullmark plays four of Ottawa’s remaining five games, he’ll have hit the 50-game benchmark for the first time in his career.

Stats of the night: The Senators have the 15th-easiest strength of schedule remaining, easiest than any of the teams chasing them. … The Senators have reached the 90-point threshold in back-to-back seasons for the first time since 2006-07 and 2007-08.