Streaky UCLA Poised for First-Round Shootout with UCF

Year two in the Big Ten has produced another NCAA berth for the Bruins.

Despite Mick Cronin’s constant complaints about travel in the conference, UCLA is two-for-two, making the tournament each season in the Big Ten.

Here is my preview of UCLA’s First-Round matchup with UCF.

No. 10 UCF vs No. 7 UCLA

Friday, March 20
4:25 pm PT, TBS
Philadelphia, PA

The Bruins have been very good with the basketball this season, turning it over on just 13.1% of offensive possessions, ranking 12th best in the country.

UCLA also led the Big Ten in three-point differential, shooting 37.7% while holding opponents to 31.6%.

That is a recipe for success, and if the Bruins can duplicate that effort in the tournament opener, they will get a chance to play a second game in Philadelphia.

UCLA seems to have found something down the stretch, winning six of their last eight games, including wins over Illinois, Nebraska, and Michigan State.

But this up-and-down season was not without its issues, which have been problematic at times, lacking the suffocating defensive that Cronin usually puts on the floor.

Opponents shot 52.7% on two-point FGs and 58.1% on non-blocked two-pointers.

Both of those defensive figures, which rank in the 220s nationally, have generally been a hallmark of Cronin’s teams in the past.

Another issue for this UCLA squad has been rebounding, as the Bruins are 203rd in the nation, gathering just 49.6% of the total rebounds on offer.

That could be a significant issue against the Knights, as UCF ranks 55th in the nation with a total rebound rate of 52.6%.

UCF connected on 36.3% of its three-point attempts in conference play to rank fourth in the Big 12.

While the Knights have shot well from deep, only 29.1% of their scoring has come from three-point baskets—that is decidedly in the bottom half of the nation.

So, the outcome might well come down to the Knights’ ability to get the mid-range jumpers to fall against the Bruins, who (as mentioned above have) been shaky in that department.

During UCLA’s three-game run in the Big Ten Tournament, they limited opponents to just 46.2% on two-point FGs.

If they can continue that trend, the Bruins should be able to severely limit UCF on offense.

A big reason for the late season surge for UCLA has been the play of Donovan Dent.

The guard has looked a lot more like his former self over the last month and a half than his first two and half months.

During the last eight games, he has tallied 55 assists while just turning it over six times and averaging over 14 points per game.

The Bruins will need more of that, if they hope to keep playing in March.

But the biggest thing to look for in this match up might be the health of both Dent and Tyler Bilodeau.

Dent exited the loss to Purdue with a calf injury while the Bruin’s leading scorer suffered a knee injury during the win over MSU and missed the Big Ten semifinal game.

Both are expected to play in the NCAA opener, but their effectiveness will be worth watching.

With a fully healthy pair of stars, I think UCLA gets the win comfortably. If they are hampered, the Bruins likely still get enough to advance, though it could be tight.

writes about various topics for SuperWest sports, including stats and records, college sports, and motorsports. He also founded and runs the Sports and Entertainment Research Center (SERC).

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