Subtle factors that will determine success of Blue Jays’ late push

The playoff race the Toronto Blue Jays find themselves in is immensely complex, with as many as nine teams in contention for the third American League wild-card spot, considering the AL Central and AL West leaders could be in the mix if they slip up.

Any battle between multiple teams will be decided by a complex array of factors, and a race that could include 60 per cent of the AL has a dizzying array of variables at play. An extremely simplistic way of cutting through the clutter is to say that if the Blue Jays post an excellent record in their final 36 games, they have a solid chance of outlasting an uninspiring group of ballclubs. A more interesting way to examine the situation is to try to figure out where exactly they might find the edges necessary to scrape past a crowded field.

Below are a couple of under-the-radar factors that could contribute to whether Toronto can snatch a playoff position that looked out of reach not long ago.

Stealing bases is rarely one of the cornerstones of a modern MLB offence, and the Blue Jays aren’t suddenly going to start swiping at an incredible rate with their current personnel. Still, it’s notable that Toronto ranked 26th in the majors in stolen bases from the beginning of the season to the end of July (48), but is tied for 10th so far in August (11). 

Nearly half of those steals have come from Andrés Giménez (5), but recent additions to the roster give the team more potential in this area than they had earlier in the season. Neither Brett Bateman nor Charles McAdoo has swiped a bag yet, but they have 92nd percentile and 85th percentile sprint speed, respectively. Bateman has 20 steals in 84 minor-league games this season, and while McAdoo’s total at triple-A (12) is more modest, he piled up 34 at double-A last year.

Encouraging that pair to run could bear fruit, while trade deadline addition Josh Smith has respectable wheels (61st percentile sprint speed) and double-digit steals in his previous two healthy seasons before 2026. Myles Straw is also a notable threat with 97th percentile sprint speed and 108 MLB steals on his record, but he’ll have to improve on his low OBP (.274) to be a consistent threat.

Stealing bases is not the be-all and end-all of improving the Blue Jays’ offensive performance, but Toronto has some latent potential in this area. Stolen bases may also be more valuable to the Blue Jays than other teams, as they rank fourth in the majors in singles, but 29th in home runs. Getting runners into scoring position means more to a club with that kind of profile at the plate.

Starting this week, the Blue Jays have an off-day in each remaining week of their schedule. That’s an asset that could be leveraged as they look for every available edge available to them.

One move worthy of consideration is keeping Dylan Cease on regular rest and slotting the rest of the rotation behind him instead of giving him an extra day of rest. This is a maneuver the Blue Jays have been reluctant to try in recent years, but the situation this year makes it worth a second look.  

Not only is Cease a workhorse squarely in the middle of his prime who’s not in desperate need of extra rest, but he’s also a Cy Young frontrunner who gives Toronto a significantly better chance to win a given game than any of its other starters. Keeping Cease on regular rest through the end of the season would give the Blue Jays one extra start from the right-hander, which could conceivably make the difference in a race with thin margins. Based on recent history, it would be surprising to see the Blue Jays do this. Even if they don’t push Cease ahead consistently enough to get an extra start, it could be an option once or twice to avoid needing a fifth starter spot that has been in flux. 

The off-days on Toronto’s schedule could also play a significant role in how the bullpen is deployed. While manager John Schneider will be managing his relievers to win each game individually, he can use off-days to keep his three most critical arms — Louis Varland, Tyler Rogers and Mason Fluharty — in heavy rotation while also giving them some needed rest. The trio all rank in the top 10 among MLB relievers in appearances. There’s unlikely to be a paradigm shift in their usage, but they can get much of their rest on days where the whole team is inactive. 

The Blue Jays don’t have much control over precisely when they score runs, but their timing could still be a surprisingly big factor down the stretch. Toronto’s overall offence ranks 29th in scoring, but it has been particularly bad in the first five innings of ballgames, averaging just 1.84 runs per game — significantly lower than the next-worst squad (the Seattle Mariners, at 2.16).

Failing to score early is consequential for the Blue Jays because its bullpen is blessed with shutdown options at the back of the pen in Varland, Rogers — and, more recently, Spencer Miles — who are far less likely to be used if the Blue Jays are trailing in the middle and late sections of ballgames. When Toronto is behind, it’s more likely to turn to its low-leverage relievers. That group is usually going to have significantly worse numbers than the high-leverage crew in any bullpen, but for the Blue Jays, the gap between the leverage guys (Varland, Rogers, Fluharty, Miles, Braydon Fisher) and the others is significant.

Many of the poor numbers Simeon Woods Richardson, Matt Waldron and Paul Sewald accumulated came with other teams, but that trio and Brendon Little don’t inspire confidence, and they play a much larger role when Toronto falls behind early, even by a tiny margin. Only 17.9 per cent of outings by Rogers and Varland have started with the Blue Jays trailing their opponents.

Another way the timing of Toronto’s run-scoring could help mitigate the meaningful damage other teams do against their low-leverage quartet is by mixing in the occasion blowout. That’s a tough ask for a team with an underperforming offence, but the Blue Jays haven’t won a game by five or more runs since July 25.  Even a couple of laughers could make a difference in giving their low-leverage corps some safe room to operate and resting the top dogs.

Losing big, when the team loses, might not be the worst thing on one or two occasions, either. During Toronto’s 10-6 August, 12 of the 16 games have been within three runs, and four have gone to extras. That’s a recipe for a bullpen running out of gas.