Texas vs. Gonzaga prediction, odds, spread, time: 2026 NCAA Tournament picks from proven model

The 11-seed Texas Longhorns face the 3-seed Gonzaga Bulldogs in the second round of the 2026 NCAA Tournament West Region on Saturday. Texas advanced by upsetting BYU 79-71 in the first round on Thursday, while Gonzaga downed Kennesaw State 73-64. The Longhorns (20-14), who placed 10th in the SEC at 9-9, are 5-5 in their last 10 games. The Bulldogs (23-3), who finished first in the WCC standings at 16-2, are 12-1 against non-conference opponents this season. 

Tipoff from Moda Center in Portland, Oregon, is set for 7:10 p.m. ET. Gonzaga is a 6.5-point favorite in the latest Texas vs. Gonzaga odds, while the over/under for total points scored is 147.5. Before making any Gonzaga vs. Texas picks, check out the Gonzaga vs. Texas predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every college basketball game 10,000 times. It entered the 2026 NCAA Tournament on a sizzling 11-1 run on its top-rated over/under college basketball picks dating back to last season, and is on a 28-22 run on top-rated CBB side picks. 

Now, the model has simulated Texas vs. Gonzaga 10,000 times and just revealed its college basketball picks and predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model’s picks. Here are several college basketball odds and college basketball lines for Texas vs. Gonzaga:

Top Texas vs. Gonzaga predictions

After 10,000 simulations of Texas vs. Gonzaga, SportsLine’s model is going Over on the total (147.5 points). The total has gone over in four of the Longhorns’ last five games played on a Saturday. The Over has also hit in the last four games played between these two schools. The Bulldogs are 4-1 ATS against the Longhorns in the last five matchups.

The model projects the Longhorns to have four players score 14 or more points, including Dailyn Swain, who is projected to score 17.6 points. The Bulldogs are projected to have two players score 13 or more points, led by Graham Ike, who is projected to score 22.2 points. The model is projecting 156 combined points, as the Over clears 74% of the time. You can get the spread pick at SportsLine.

How to make Texas vs. Gonzaga picks

Now, the model simulated every possession of Texas vs. Gonzaga 10,000 times and says one side of the spread hits more than 50% of the time. You can only see that pick at SportsLine.

So who wins Texas vs. Gonzaga, and which side of the spread hits more than 50% of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Texas vs. Gonzaga spread to back, all from the advanced model that just simulated this game 10,000 times, and find out.