The Case for Keeping J.J. McCarthy as Vikings QB1 in 2026

The Minnesota Vikings will sign a different quarterback this offseason — perhaps a trade — but no one is too sure whether that man will be competition or insurance. If the Vikings opt for the insurance angle, just a player to step in for J.J. McCarthy gets hurt or falters, they’ll need a better plan than last year.

Minnesota can chase insurance if it wants, but the cleanest path stays centered on McCarthy and the long-term bet already in place.

While this website doesn’t necessarily pound the table for “J.J. McCarthy no matter what,” the following is the case in support of McCarthy — if Kevin O’Connell indeed puts all his eggs in the McCarthy basket.

Reasons the Vikings Should Stick With J.J. McCarthy as QB1 in 2026

Laying it out, why Minnesota might keep McCarthy as the for-sure QB1.

Youth — All the Youth

McCarthy turned 23 a couple of weeks ago. He hasn’t even approached an age to determine if he’s “bust.” That term is usually reserved for players around age 25 or so.

Minnesota drafted him at age 21, and two years in, he hasn’t taken the league by storm, missing 70% of games due to various injuries and struggling in 2025, outside of some clutch moments and about three games in December.

No NFL team should wholly give up on a 23-year-old who was drafted in Round 1 two years ago. It’s too early. It’s just a matter of whether the Vikings have the patience to let it ride or want to hedge the bet by signing another passer to compete with McCarthy.

The Famous O’Connell Quote

A year and a half ago, O’Connell said on the Rich Eisen Show, “I just think as a whole, there’s not enough emphasis put on the organization’s role in the development of the position, meaning I believe that organizations fail young quarterbacks before young quarterbacks fail organizations.”

Little did he know, he’d get a chance to put his money where his mouth is in the 2026 offseason. If he trades McCarthy or finds a different-but-various-obvious QB1, he will have fallen victim to what he preached against.

He also said, “Just overall 30,000-foot view, I think it’s important to understand that every single one of these guys is on a journey. A very difficult journey. That they need the support, they need the teammates around them, they need the systems in place to ultimately try to maximize who they are and what their potential is because you’re still drafting players off of potential.”

“And then everything that happens from that moment to when that potential becomes a reality is really on the organization if you’ve got the right guy that you’re bringing in.”

If O’Connell truly believes his own quote, McCarthy will stay put and probably earn the QB1 job in September.

“I do believe there’s some times where things just don’t work out, and then getting a chance to kinda wipe the slate clean and get a restart while still using your previous experiences to kinda shape how you’re gonna work, why you’re gonna work, why things are important to you, will only make guys better in the end and I think we’ve seen some examples of that in our league as well over the last few years,” O’Connell concluded in September 2024.

The Sam Darnold Cautionary Tale

In March 2025, the Vikings allowed Sam Darnold to depart in free agency for the Seattle Seahawks, failing to re-sign the passer who had just tossed 35 touchdowns or franchise-tag him as tradebait.

In the 2026 offseason, failing to develop McCarthy could, in theory, set him on a path to another Darnold-like story: Minnesota drops him, and he later thrives with another team.

Do Vikings fans really want to endure this again? How about the Vikings’ ownership?

The Jared Goff Comparison

McCarthy’s career through 10 starts has begun exactly like Goff’s in 2016.

Fast forward a decade, and Goff is considered a Top 12 quarterback in the NFL. While not widespread, there is a teensy bit of precedent for players like McCarthy “figuring it out” after some initial doldrums.

McCarthy’s Performance against WAS, DAL, and NYG

When McCarthy healed from one of his many injuries in 2025, he returned for back-to-back-to-back games against NFC East opponents — mostly poor defenses — and excelled. He very much looked the part of a Top 10 quarterback, and that’s not an exaggeration based on those three games alone.

Of course, he got hurt against the Giants, stunting his momentum. That’s the story of McCarthy’s career early on.

Nevertheless, we’re not talking about a young quarterback who’s never played well. He played great, in fact, against the Commanders, Cowboys, and Giants. At a Pro Bowl level, even.

He Can Already Do the Hard Stuff

Strangely, McCarthy nailed the hard throws in 2025 but often struggled with the basics.

As recently as mid-December, Pro Football Focus‘ Nick Akridge wrote, “Putting impressive throws on tape: McCarthy’s season-long big-time throw rate is now 7.2%, tied for the highest among all quarterbacks in the NFL. There’s no denying the pressure on McCarthy. The Vikings went all-in on him as their franchise quarterback this offseason, and the early returns were uneven.”

“But development was always going to take time, and over the past few weeks, the confidence and decisiveness have clearly shown up on tape. These remaining games are crucial for his growth, and if McCarthy continues to look like he did in Week 15, Minnesota should be right back in the NFC mix next season.”

One would think that if McCarthy has the tricky throws on speed dial, he should be able to figure out the fundamentals in the backdrop with proper coaching.

Trashy quarterbacks don’t make throws like this:

A Short Leash from Ownership

While it’s tempting to cut bait with McCarthy in favor of something more comfy, there’s a very small chance the Wilfs insist that the Vikings — O’Connell in particular — sink or swim with McCarthy.

After all, if one assumes that McCarthy doesn’t work out, the next leadership regime should get a clean slate. That would include the quarterback.

This probably isn’t a stipulation from the Wilfs — they seem to adore O’Connell — but it needed to be noted for full context.

The NFL’s 6th-Best Passer from Week 14 On

These are the numbers to know about McCarthy’s rollercoaster first season as a starter:

Now ask yourself: Do you really want the Vikings to give up on a guy who turned into the NFL’s sixth-best quarterback in the final month of the year, his first season ever as a starter? Does that seem smart?