Thoughts and predictions on the NHL off-season

Not a ton of predictions tonight, been working on the Zach Werenski story. But I’ve got a few. 

First, Werenski himself: The most important thing is that cooler heads prevail. One rumour making the rounds Tuesday night is that Werenski’s camp is so upset at recent developments that all trade possibilities will be rejected. (I absolutely believe that’s part of what happened with Dallas.) But that might be short-term hot-headedness, as opposed to realistic long-term outcome. We’ll see.

I don’t think Toronto will fool around. The Maple Leafs will step up and take their swing. (Werenski and wife Odette’s roots are not difficult travel to Toronto, which is believed to be a reason he’d consider the Maple Leafs.) I’d be very curious to see what Tampa offers. If Florida wants to trade a legitimate player from its roster, the Panthers could be a player, too.

As Michael Keaton once said: “You wanna get nuts? Come on! Let’s get nuts!”

Connor Hellebuyck: I don’t buy the New Jersey hype. It’s not a contract that fits the profile of new GM Sunny Mehta. Hellebuyck would waive to Buffalo, but a couple of sources have said since last weekend that a trade wasn’t as close as we thought. Some of the rumoured Sabres returns have new trade protection. Winnipeg would love to bring him back, but I think it’s unlikely.

Dylan Larkin: Steve Yzerman would rather make no trade than what he thinks is a bad trade.

Jason Robertson: Wants Dallas to budge. Don’t see it now. My guess is they go to arbitration. Unless Yzerman decides he’s the best option for Larkin. 

Sergei Bobrovsky: Heard Edmonton had interest, but I’ve honed in on Toronto. Believe his last ask of Florida was three years, $21 million. So I’d expect the overall dollars to come in around there. 

Bowen Byram: Signs Wednesday, $12 million range.

Nico Hischier: Signs Wednesday, just under $12 million per year. 

Quinn Hughes: 3 x $18 million, sometime in July. That’s my whopper pick. I don’t think Cale Makar, Connor Bedard, Macklin Celebrini or Leo Carlsson sign with their current teams Wednesday. 

Darnell Nurse: Pittsburgh wanted Edmonton to take back a contract. The Oilers didn’t like whatever was presented to them. Philadelphia’s had a challenge putting all of the different pieces together in and out. Boston’s shown interest, but that’s also about what has to go out to make it work. I believe the Sharks are very interested, but Nurse remains east-focused as I write this. 

Mason Marchment: There was a lot of interest. Montreal, I think Toronto. Someone made a great point that a sentimental favourite might be San Jose, longtime NHL home of his late father Bryan. The two were extremely close. 

Alexander Nikishin: A lot of interest. Carolina will hold until they get what they want, which includes a player. Rangers are believed to have offered a first and another pick. But that didn’t do it. Heavy competition, with many asking: what does he want on his next deal? Can’t sign an offer sheet.

The centres: Los Angeles, Philadelphia, Toronto, Utah, Vancouver. These teams were all around Noel Acciari, Erik Haula, Boone Jenner, Scott Laughton, Colton Sissons (Nashville reunion?), Kevin Stenlund. I believe Utah still lusts after Vincent Trocheck, who prefers the east. Kings tried to get Haula before Laughton, but he was hurt at the time. They like him. 

Rasmus Andersson: He’s staying.

Stuart Skinner: If Hellebuyck is traded, Winnipeg makes the most sense. Otherwise, I’d take a shot if I was the Mammoth. They need to lighten Karel Vejmelka’s load.

The defencemen: San Jose. Sharks need D. Ian Cole? Jamie Oleksiak? Jacob Trouba?

Ryan Shea: Had a really good year. Heard Lightning really liked him. But they also have their eyes on Werenski and John Carlson, if he doesnt sign in Carolina. Good player.

Alexander Ovechkin: he returns in 2026-27. 

Offer sheets: Last year, the Hurricanes threatened the Oilers (who signed Evan Bouchard) and the Rangers (who acquiesced and traded them K’Andre Miller). I think they’re considering doing it again. I have a theory, but I’m too chicken to say it. I also believe Seattle is considering it, as they basically created an offer-sheet trade for Jason Robertson, if he’d taken their cash. I also believe Mavrik Bourque is another potential target. I don’t want to get everyone’s hopes up, but there’s lots of noise out there.