The United States and Canada have had some epic hockey games in recent memory, but I can’t recall a substantial baseball game between the countries. That changes tonight in the quarterfinals of the World Baseball Classic. Team USA is -4.5 on the run line with a total of 9.5 for the 8 ET first pitch from Daikin Park in Houston. We are now in the knockout rounds.
It would almost be fitting for Canada to advance because we took the Canadians’ lunch in their national sport of hockey, with Team USA’s men and women beating Team Canada in the Olympics gold-medal match in both. I’m not sure that baseball is America’s pastime these days – that would be football – but it’s our sport.
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Team USA was the WBC favorite entering the tournament and remains so at +130 despite almost not advancing out of pool play. After being stunned by Italy, 8-6, in their final pool-play game, the Americans needed the Italians’ help Wednesday vs. Mexico and got it. Italy prevailed 9-1, thanks largely to the first three-home run game in WBC history by captain Vinnie Pasquantino, who plays for the Kansas City Royals. There had been 25 two-homer games in the tournament’s history entering Wednesday.
This has been a homer-happy event with 92 thus far, most in a single tournament, and we are only through pool play. The previous record was 85 dingers in both 2023 and 2009. There also have been a record eight individual multi-homer games this WBC. There have been six games where a team hit at least four home runs, also a record.
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Ernie Whitt has been the Canadian manager in every World Baseball Classic — he was born in Detroit but is is a revered former Blue Jays catcher (1977-1989) — and has the country in the quarterfinals for the first time. Canada (+3000 to win tournament) clinched its berth with a 7-2 victory at Cuba in a win-or-go-home matchup; it’s the first time in WBC history that the Cubans did not advance past pool play. Canada already has won more games this year (three) than in any other WBC.
“We’re not here for a participation ribbon,” said pitcher Cal Quantrill, a key part of the win over Cuba. “We’re here to compete and play ball and win against the best countries in the world.”
Canada has several major-leaguers on the roster and is expected to start one Friday in Arizona Diamondbacks righty Michael Soroka. The former touted Braves prospect allowed one run on four hits and one walk while striking out two over three innings in Team Canada’s tournament-opening win over Columbia. Soroka threw 54 pitches, 30 for strikes, and averaged 94.7 mph with his four-seam fastball.
The 28-year-old former top Braves prospect was 3-8 with a 4.52 ERA last MLB season with the Washington Nationals and Chicago Cubs. He made two Cactus League appearances this spring for Arizona and allowed four earned in 3.2 innings before leaving for the WBC. Canada will have former MLB lefty James Paxton available out of the bullpen. “The Big Maple” came out of retirement to compete and threw a dominant 2.2 innings in the win vs. Cuba.
Whitt pulled Paxton with two outs and two strikes in the ninth inning to keep him eligible for the quarterfinals because he was at 49 pitches. Team Canada’s bullpen allowed just three earned runs over 21.1 innings in pool play. The Marlins‘ Owen Cassie (.500, one HR, five RBI, 1.458 OPS) and Royals’ Abraham Toro (.467, one HR, five RBI, 1.529 OPS) have been the best Canadian hitters.
San Francico Giants righty Logan Webb will start for the USA. He was very good in two Cactus League outings and then dominated in the WBC-opening rout of Brazil in four innings, retiring 12 batters in a row with only one ball hit out of the infield to go along with six strikeouts. The lone run he allowed was a homer by Lucas Ramirez, the son of former All-Star outfielder Manny Ramirez. Webb threw 33 of 52 pitches for strikes.
Clubs are allowed to make roster changes after pool play and the United States has dropped pitchers Tarik Skubal, Michael Wacha and Ryan Yarbrough (7.71 ERA in 2.1 innings in this WBC) for relievers Will Vest (Tigers), Tyler Rogers (Blue Jays) and Tim Hill (Yankees). Hill is a funky throwing southpaw who likely would be called upon to face Canada’s top lefty in the late innings.
Team USA is 4-1 all-time against Canada in the WBC, with all five games taking place in pool play. The loss came in 2006 in the inaugural Classic. The most recent game was in 2023 and the U.S. won 12-1, ending in seven innings because of the run rule.
The winner faces either Korea or the Dominican Republic in Sunday’s semifinals in Miami, and I expect that to be the DR. That quarterfinal is at 6:30 ET tonight, also from Miami in their first-ever matchup in this event. The other two quarterfinals are Saturday, and I like Italy over Puerto Rico and Japan over Venezuela in those.
On the updated MVP odds, Japan’s Shohei Ohtani is the +550 favorite followed by the USA’s Aaron Judge +600. No one else is below +1400. Judge is hitting .250 with two homers and five RBI in the WBC. Ohtani is at .556 with two homers and six RBI.
Pick: The USA has played two good teams in this event in Mexico and Italy, and it didn’t cover +4.5 in the first and lost the latter. So with plenty of big-league guys on the roster, I like Canada +4.5.
