Tua Tagovailoa has spent his entire career with the Miami Dolphins, but after six seasons, it looks like the team is ready to move on, which means Tagovailoa is likely going to be suiting up for someone else in 2026.
At this point, the only question is whether Tua is going to get released or traded. Both scenarios would come with some complications for the Dolphins and that’s because Tua has $54 million in guaranteed money owed to him for the 2026 season. If the Dolphins cut Tua, they would be stuck with an NFL-record $99.2 million dead cap charge this year. However, they could knock that number down to $67.4 million if they designate him as a post-June 1 cut, a move that would allow them to split the $99.2 million hit over two seasons (they’d also take a $31.8 million dead cap hit in 2027).
The best-case scenario for the Dolphins would be to find a potential trade partner. The problem there is that it’s highly unlikely that any team is going to be willing to take on Tua’s $54 million guaranteed salary for 2026. However, the Dolphins could still try to make a deal happen by agreeing to pay some of that salary. If Miami was willing to pay $24 million, then the acquiring team would only have to pay Tua $30 million in 2026, which is a much more manageable number.
So if Tua does leave Miami, where could he end up? Let’s take a look at four possible landing spots.
Minnesota Vikings
The Vikings are currently in a nightmare situation at quarterback. They appeared to have their quarterback of the future in 2024 with Sam Darnold, who led them to a 14-3 record. The Vikings could have kept him last year, but instead of signing Darnold to a long-term deal (or even just franchise tagging him), they decided to roll the dice by going all in with J.J. McCarthy and that gamble totally backfired. In his first full year as a starter, McCarthy looked much closer to being a bust than someone who will eventually be the team’s future franchise quarterback.
Say what you will about Tua, but he’s definitely a much more polished quarterback than McCarthy. Although he’s had some trouble staying healthy, Tua has been productive when he’s on the field and he’s been especially good when he’s had the right weapons around him and the Vikings have a lot of offensive weapons to work with in Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison and T.J. Hockenson. Tua might have to compete with McCarthy for the job, but that’s likely a competition where he would be feeling pretty confident.
And let’s not forget, Tua’s former offensive coordinator, Frank Smith, is now in Minnesota. Smith worked with Tua for four seasons in Miami and he’s now the assistant head coach for the Vikings after being hired this year, so there would be some familiarity there.
The biggest question mark here is whether Tua would want to join a team that includes Brian Flores. The Vikings defensive coordinator was Tua’s head coach in Miami for two seasons (2020-21) and the two definitely didn’t get along. Tua ripped Flores’ coaching style back in 2024 and it’s not clear if the two sides have mended fences. If they have, then Minnesota seems like an enticing spot for the former fifth overall pick.
Arizona Cardinals
Kyler Murray has almost certainly played his last down in Arizona, which means the Cardinals will likely be in the market for a quarterback this offseason. Jacoby Brissett, who started 12 games last season, is under contract for 2026, so the Cards do have a safety net, but it would make a lot more sense tor them to bring someone in.
New Cardinals coach Mike LaFleur just spent three seasons as the offensive coordinator with the Rams, where he got to work with one of the NFL’s top pocket passers in Matthew Stafford. That’s not Murray’s playing style, but it definitely is what Tua prefers, which why he might be able to fit in with Arizona’s new offense.
The Cardinals have some solid weapons, including Trey McBride, who’s one of the best tight ends in the NFL. They have also have an impressive receiving duo in Marvin Harrison Jr. and Michael Wilson. Tua was at his best in Miami when Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle were both on the field, so the Cardinals know what kind of production he’s capable of when he has some weapons around him.
Indianapolis Colts
The Colts might be the biggest wild card when it comes to the quarterback position this year and that’s because it’s not clear if Daniel Jones will be ready to play in Week 1. Jones had a strong season in his first-year with Indianapolis, but it came to a painful end in December when he tore his Achilles. That’s one of the most brutal injuries in sports and it wouldn’t be surprising at all if he had to miss the first few weeks of the 2026 season. As a matter of fact, if you look at the recovery timeline for quarterbacks, it would be a borderline miracle if Jones were to play in Week 1. Aaron Rodgers and Kirk Cousins both tore their Achilles in 2023 and they ended up playing in Week 1 of the following season, but both of those injuries happened early in the season (Cousins’ injury came in Week 8 while Rodgers tore his Achilles in Week 1. Jones suffered his injury in Week 14).
Not only is Jones’ health up in the air, but he’s also set to be a free agent, so the Colts have fo figure out what they want to do with him, and that’s where Tua would come in. If the Colts decide to re-sign Jones, Tua could sign a one-year deal — if the Dolphins release him — and be the QB until Jones is ready to play. A trade could also make sense if the Dolphins are willing to eat a healthy chunk of Tua’s $54 million salary for 2026. Tua doesn’t have any guaranteed money left after the 2026 season, so he could fill in for Jones for a few weeks, finish out the 2026 season in Indy and then the Colts could release or trade him during the 2027 offseason (Tua will have $3 million of his 2027 salary become guaranteed on March 13, so the Colts would have to deal with that if they acquired him in a trade from Miami).
One thing working in Tua’s favor is that the Colts have a set up where he could thrive: They have a solid offensive line, they have one of the best running backs in the NFL (Jonathan Taylor), they have a solid receiving group led by Michael Pittman and they have a solid young tight end in Tyler Warren. Tua could put up some big numbers in Indy.
Atlanta Falcons
The Falcons currently have two quarterbacks in Kirk Cousins and Michael Penix Jr., but that won’t be the case much longer. The team is expected to release Cousins before the start of free agency, which will leave Penix as the top guy on the depth chart. Penix comes with some serious question marks, though: He just tore his ACL for the third time in his football career and he hasn’t proven that he can play consistently good football.
Although the Falcons expect him to be ready for Week 1, he’s playing for a new coach and a new front office that didn’t draft him, so it wouldn’t be surprising at all if they brought in some competition for him. Falcons coach Kevin Stefanski has shown that he can win games even if he has to cycle through quarterbacks. He led the Browns to the playoffs during a 2023 season where Cleveland started five different players at quarterback. Stefanski is a smart offensive mind and if he thinks that Tua has more upside than Penix, then he would almost certainly be interested in bringing him to Atlanta.
Bringing in a left-handed QB to compete with a left-handed QB would be a plus for the Falcons because it means that Atlanta wouldn’t have to make any huge changes from an offensive standpoint.
The man making the decisions in Atlanta’s front office, Matt Ryan, was noncommittal when asked if Penix would be the starting QB in 2026. Ryan told CBS Sports NFL insider Jonathan Jones that Penix’s role will be decided by new head coach Kevin Stefanski.
“Kevin’s responsibility is to be the head coach of the football team and he’s going to let you know who our starters are and who our starters are not. It’s not my place to go in there,” Ryan said during Super Bowl week.
So the QB job will be up to Stefanski, which certainly leaves the door open for Atlanta to bring in a new quarterback.
Why several QB-needy teams didn’t make this list
One thing you may or may not have noticed about this list is that every team on it plays indoors. If Tua has proven one thing in his career, it’s that he struggles when the weather gets cold, so it doesn’t make much sense for him to play in a cold-weather city, which is why we don’t have the Jets, Steelers or Browns listed here.
The final start of Tua’s Dolphins’ career came in a December loss to the Steelers where the kickoff temperature was 17 degrees. That dropped Tua’s career record to 0-6 when the temperature is below 40. If I’m a team in a cold-weather city, I don’t want Tua, and if I’m Tua, I don’t want to play in a cold-weather city. For Tua, playing indoors will guarantee that he’ll get perfect weather for at least eight games per year. Tua has an 8-4 career record when playing indoors (dome or retractable roof) with his last game coming in Week 8 against the Falcons, a day that saw him throw four touchdown passes in a 34-10 win.
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