UFC 330: Why aggression, grappling will be Makhachev’s path to another victory

UFC 330 takes place Saturday, with Philadelphia hosting its first UFC numbered event since UFC 133.

It may have been worth the wait as this card features two title fights with the sport’s top pound-for-pound fighter headlining against a worthy challenger.

Main Event: Islam Makhachev versus Ian Machado Garry (welterweight championship)

Makhachev’s path: Be aggressive and prioritize grappling. Makhachev’s striking has improved by miles since his UFC debut and he could potentially win a striking battle, but why roll the dice? The more time that Garry has to make reads and adjustments, the more the fight swings to his advantage.

Garry’s best weapon is his fight IQ and the more looks get thrown at him, the harder it will be for him to recognize patterns and capitalize.

Garry’s path: If Makhachev performs as outlined above, Garry’s best path is to frustrate Makhachev by keeping the fight upright and turning it into more of a point-fighting affair. If he can earn a bunch of small wins throughout the fight, he could end up with the big win at the end of the night.

Win more exchanges, don’t get stuck on the ground and weaponize his ability to make reads and adjust. Easier said than done against the best fighter in the sport, but if beating Makhachev was easy, he wouldn’t be on a UFC record-tying 16-fight win streak.

Prediction: Makhachev by unanimous decision.

Co-Main Event: Mackenzie Dern versus Gillian Robertson (women’s strawweight championship)

Dern’s path: Skill-for-skill, Dern has many advantages in this fight that can make her a difficult puzzle for Robertson to solve. Dern’s aggression can be both an asset and a liability. If she pushes forward with punches to try to either set up her grappling or simply land the bigger strikes to win rounds, she could end up getting taken down. However, getting taken down has never been much of a concern for Dern given her world-class grappling pedigree.

Similar to my assessment of the main event, I think that being the busier fighter and switching up her looks throughout the fight will give her a wide advantage. Letting Robertson get settled into the fight will leave openings that will open up her best winning conditions. Dern should aim to be first and establish the terms of the fight early.

Robertson’s path: Creativity is the name of the game for Robertson. She needs to find spots where her ingenuity puts her in advantageous positions. If this bout is a pure striking battle she can potentially out-point Dern. If she takes it to the ground, while that would likely be playing with fire, her ability to find openings and control her opponents are what earned her this title fight in the first place.

She’s going to have to be a step ahead of Dern throughout the fight if she wants to find a way to win. To do so, taking risks will be pivotal.

Prediction: Dern by submission in Round 3.

Jalin Turner versus Kaue Fernandes

Turner’s path: Weaponize the strengths of Fernandes against him. Fernandes is known for his devastating and debilitating leg kicks, meaning Turner will likely need to eat a few of them along the way. If Turner can land straight punches and attack up the middle from mid-range, however, his power and long-range weapons will punish Fernandes when he attempts his leg kicks.

If Turner can withstand the early onslaught of kicks and start landing to the body, he can slowly wear Fernandes down and capitalize on an opening late in the fight.

Fernandes’s path: Fernandes has been a master at hitting and not getting hit, outlanding his opponents at a near three-to-one ratio on average. If he can do that without getting caught, he can beat just about anyone.

Turner is very opportunistic, but he also tends to get frustrated if the fight is not going his way. If Fernandes can gather momentum and hold onto it, he should be able to walk away with the win.

Prediction: Fernandes by decision.

Mansur Abdul-Malik versus Dustin Stoltzfus

Abdul-Malik’s path: Abdul-Malik has shown flashes of brilliance as well as lapses in judgment over the course of his UFC tenure. This should be an easy matchup for him if he can use his best weapons of his power and his ability to keep the fight on the feet with his wrestling pedigree.

Stoltzfus has had issues with power punchers in the past and if Abdul-Malik can connect and not make mistakes along the way, this should be a win for him.

Stoltzfus’s path: Abdul-Malik is still refining his game and someone with the veteran savvy of Stoltzfus can capitalize on his mistakes. The key is to find a way to get Abdul-Malik to overcommit and find that opening. If he can bait Abdul-Malik into striking exchanges and turn that into a grappling sequence, Stoltzfus is always crafty enough to find a submission.

He needs to avoid getting caught early and prolong the fight for as long as possible.

Prediction: Abdul-Malik by KO/TKO in Round 1.

Edson Barboza versus Esteban Ribovics

Barboza’s path: Range is the name of the game for Barboza here. He has always performed at his best when he can dictate the terms of the fight and in this case it’ll be using his long-range weapons to make Ribovics pay for trying to get aggressive.

Barboza’s biggest pitfalls have come against capable grapplers, of which Ribovics is not. The odds for this fight may be long, but we have seen Barboza punish aggressive strikers throughout his long and mostly successful UFC career. Now that he has gotten older, his mind will be able to craft a winning game plan, but the x-factor is whether his body will be able to execute it.

Ribovics’s path: Ribovics has the killer instinct. He will walk down his opponents with no regard for what they have to throw back – even against someone as dangerous as Barboza. If Ribovics can back Barboza up he should be able to roll downhill and overwhelm the Brazilian veteran. Once he avoids the long-range weapons of Barboza, this is his fight to win.

Prediction: Ribovics by KO/TKO in Round 2.