Vegas Sees 4 Teams in the Same Boat as Vikings

The Minnesota Vikings have +5000 odds to win the Super Bowl in 2026, which is about the same as a snowfall in Minneapolis on Memorial Day.

Every year, we uplift teams that live in the same neighborhood of Super Bowl odds as Minnesota, and this go-around, there are about four clubs. Ranked in ascending order, the following franchises have similar Super Bowl moneyline (No. 1 = closest Vikings comp in 2026).

Vikings Share Vegas Tier with Four Squads

4. Pittsburgh Steelers
Odds to Win SB: +6500

Sportsbooks are not too enamored with the Steelers, probably because Pittsburgh is running it back with Aaron Rodgers, who will turn 43 in December, and got rid of Mike Tomlin after nearly two decades — in favor of Mike McCarthy. Vikings fans will know McCarthy well from his time in Green Bay and Dallas. He’s a coach who establishes legitimacy, usually manufactures a playoff appearance, and then falls short of the Super Bowl.

Pittsburgh added wide receiver Michael Pittman, cornerback Jamel Dean, and running back Rico Dowdle. At quarterback behind Rodgers, the depth includes Will Howard, Drew Allar, and Mason Rudolph.

The time may be ripe for the Steelers to finish with a losing record for the first time since 2003.

USA Today‘s Nate Davis called Pittsburgh the 19th-best team in the business last week, explaining, “They officially have QB Aaron Rodgers and the most expensive trio of outside linebackers in the league after Nick Herbig became the latest to cash in on an expensive, aging defense that didn’t do nearly enough to support the four-time league MVP in 2025.”

“The Steelers managed to win the AFC North in a down year for the division, but 10-7 likely won’t get the job done this time around.”

3. Washington Commanders
Odds to Win SB: +4500

Washington has slightly better odds to win it all than Minnesota, probably because Vegas trusts Jayden Daniels to rebound, after a lost 2025 season, more than Kyler Murray or J.J. McCarthy to surge in the Twin Cities. There’s also Dan Quinn, the head coach, to consider, who usually produces a steady defense.

K’Lavon Chaisson (DE), Leo Chenal (LB), Jerome Ford (RB), Nick Cross (S), Chig Okonkwo (TE), Odafe Oweh (EDGE), Amik Robertson (CB), Laremy Tunsil (OT), Rachaad White (RB), and Ahkello Witherspoon (CB) joined the roster in free agency. The Commanders also used the seventh overall pick in the draft on Ohio State linebacker Sonny Styles, in addition to onboarding wide receiver Antonio Williams in Round 3.

2. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Odds to Win SB: +5000

Now — the teams with the same Super Bowl odds as Minnesota. Led by Baker Mayfield, who is tentatively slated for free agency in 2027, Tampa Bay will hope to return to the playoffs after a down season at 8-9 last year. Quietly, the Buccaneers reached the postseason every season from 2020 to 2024, so it was a little weird for Bucs fans to live without meaningful January football.

Tampa Bay embarked on a more modest free agency than the aforementioned Commanders, signing Alex Anzalone (LB), Kenneth Gainwell (RB), Al-Quadin Muhammad (LB), and A’Shawn Robinson (DE). In the draft, EDGE rusher Rueben Bain fell into their lap with the 15th pick, while the Buccaneers also picked linebacker Joshiah Trotter, wide receiver Ted Hurst, and cornerback Keionte Scott.

Future Hall of Famer Mike Evans finally left Tampa Bay, signing with the San Francisco 49ers.

The Buccaneers did not fetch No. 1 on this list because they’re expected to narrowly win the NFC South. Oddsmakers think the Vikings will finish in last place in the NFC North.

1. Indianapolis Colts
Odds to Win SB: +5000

The Colts are the club most like the Vikings in 2026, per sportsbooks’ expectations. They’re slated to finish in third place in the AFC South and employ a quarterback, Daniel Jones — a former Viking — desperate to prove his legitimacy.

With the same odds to hoist the Lombardi Trophy as the Vikings, Indianapolis onboarded Micheal Clemons (DE), Arden Key (DE), Derrick Nnadi (DT), Cam Taylor-Britt (CB), while re-upping with the aforementioned Jones and wide receiver Alec Pierce.

Sans a 1st-Round pick this year and next due to the Sauce Gardner trade, the Colts walked away from the draft with CJ Allen, a linebacker from Georgia, and safety A.J. Haulcy of LSU.

Sharp Football‘s Raymond Sumerlin noted on the Colts this month after ranking them No. 21 in power rankings, “The Colts got good value on CJ Allen, who some thought was a first-round talent, but they simply did not have the draft capital to add much to the roster. The pass rush still looks like a major area of concern.”

If you’re looking for the best comp for the 2026 Vikings, based on how the world feels, it’s the Colts.

Dustin Baker is a novelist and political scientist. His second novel, The Invaders , is out now. So is … More about Dustin Baker