WAFCON: Nigeria’s Group C Qualification Scenarios Explained

Nigeria’s final Group C match against Egypt could play a major role in deciding which teams reach the knockout stage of the 2026 Women’s Africa Cup of Nations.

If Nigeria beat Egypt 1-0 and Zambia also defeat Malawi, the final positions will depend on the score in the Zambia-Malawi game.

A 1-0 win for Zambia would leave Malawi, Nigeria and Zambia level on goal difference. Malawi would then top the group on goals scored, with Nigeria finishing second, while Zambia would be eliminated.

If Zambia win by two or three clear goals, Malawi would be eliminated, with Zambia topping the group and Nigeria finishing second.

However, a 3-2 victory for Zambia would again leave the three teams level on goal difference. Malawi would top the group based on goals scored, while Nigeria would finish second and Zambia would be eliminated.

The biggest twist could come if Zambia beat Malawi 4-3. In that case, Nigeria would be eliminated, while Malawi would top the group and Zambia would finish second.

The permutations are based on the competition’s head-to-head rules. If three teams finish level on points, results against the fourth-placed team, Egypt in this case, are not considered when deciding the positions among the three tied teams.

This means Nigeria’s victory over Egypt would be important for qualification, but the final score between Zambia and Malawi could ultimately determine whether the Super Falcons top the group, finish second or face elimination.