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What Bettors Should Watch Early in the Season

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September can be one of the hardest months to judge NFL teams.

Offseason expectations remain fresh, yet every new game provides evidence that can challenge what bettors thought they knew before kickoff. Small statistical samples can also distort early trends.

That uncertainty makes early NFL lines particularly interesting to follow. Instead of allowing a single September result to reshape an entire outlook, bettors can focus on the information that appears repeatable as the opening weeks reveal more about each team.

Understanding the Limited Data Behind September NFL Lines

Week 1 arrives after months of projections built around last season’s performance, offseason roster moves, coaching changes and expected player development. Those assumptions provide a starting point, but meaningful current-season evidence is initially scarce.

Preseason football only fills part of the gap. Starters play limited snaps, personnel constantly change and coaches rarely reveal their full plans. Even after Week 1, statistics can mislead, with strong turnover or third-down numbers potentially reflecting one unusually productive game.

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September therefore requires patience. Coaching continuity, quarterback experience and offensive-line cohesion can provide useful context while the sample grows. Early games should update preseason expectations rather than immediately erase them.

Opening Lines, Current Lines and Market Movement

One of the clearest things bettors can monitor is how a market changes between its opening number and kickoff. A spread that begins at -2.5 and reaches -3.5 before the weekend games begin tells a different story from one that barely moves all week.

Opening numbers provide a reference point, while current markets show how expectations have changed. Bettors can get the latest NFL lines to check spreads, moneylines and totals before assessing how far a number has moved and what influenced the adjustment.

Why a line moves matters as much as how far. Injuries, depth-chart changes and broader betting market activity can all contribute. Key NFL margins also matter, particularly three and seven points, making a move from -2.5 to -3.5 especially significant.

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Closing line comparisons can add further context. Consistently noting where a chosen number finishes by kickoff can help bettors assess whether their timing is producing stronger numbers over time. This can reveal whether early market reads are proving accurate.

Early Results and the Danger of Overreaction

Opening weekend produces sweeping conclusions every year. A preseason contender loses and suddenly looks broken, while an overlooked team wins convincingly and attracts attention as a surprise package. Neither reaction necessarily reflects the full performance.

A lopsided score can result from turnovers, special-teams touchdowns or explosive plays. A narrow loss might hide a strong performance where a team moved the ball but struggled in the red zone. Looking deeper helps separate unusual events from persistent problems.

Before allowing an early result to reshape an assessment, check:

Turnover margin,

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Explosive plays,

Pass protection,

Red-zone performance,

Special teams scores,

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Garbage-time scoring.

The next matchup matters too, especially during the opening weeks. Personnel developments, opponent strengths and individual player usage can change the context considerably.

Analysis of upcoming NFL games and props can provide another layer of information as the early season develops and expectations evolve, when deciding whether an early performance represents an emerging pattern or simply one unusual Sunday.

New Coaches, Quarterbacks and Offensive Systems

September is when offseason changes meet regular-season pressure for the first time. A new playbook can look polished in practice, yet communication becomes harder as the play clock runs down and opposing defenses disguise their intentions.

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New coaches and coordinators may need time to establish their systems under game conditions. Rookie quarterbacks must adjust to defensive pressure and disguises, while new veteran starters can face similar timing and chemistry issues during September games.

Offensive lines and receiving groups also deserve attention. Protection mistakes, pre-snap penalties, poorly timed routes and assignment errors can suggest a transition remains unfinished, while communication problems can quickly disrupt offensive rhythm.

Change should not automatically count against a team, though. Sometimes a new system clicks faster than anticipated. The important question is whether September performances are beginning to reveal a functional and repeatable identity.

What Early Games Reveal About NFL Totals

Point spreads are only part of the September picture. Early games can also provide useful clues when assessing totals, particularly as offenses establish their timing and preferred style. Scoring patterns often become clearer as teams settle into their systems.

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Points scored rarely tell the full story. Quarterback-receiver chemistry, offensive-line cohesion, play-calling pace and red-zone execution can indicate whether production is sustainable. Penalties and stalled drives also matter, especially for teams installing new systems.

Early offensive rust can make lower-scoring games worth examining, but September Unders are not automatic. Markets adapt as regular-season evidence grows. A struggling offense may improve quickly, while a fast starter can face tougher defensive matchups.

Watching how an offense functions is ultimately more informative than assuming September football must follow one scoring pattern. Efficiency and execution provide important context as the season develops. Matchup quality can also shape early results.

Injuries, Weather and Late-Week Information

Some of the most important information arrives after the opening line is posted. Checking player availability closer to kickoff matters, as practice participation and injury reports can shift expectations around quarterbacks, offensive linemen and key defenders.

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Conditions deserve similar attention. September heat and humidity can test conditioning, while wind and rain may affect passing and kicking. Travel demands and scheduling circumstances can also provide useful context when assessing a matchup.

Bettors should also check what the market has already done before making any decision. Important news does not automatically create an opportunity, particularly when the spread or total has already moved enough to reflect the latest development.

The final question should therefore go beyond whether an injury, weather forecast or other update matters before the game begins. Bettors should consider how significant the information is and whether the current line has already accounted for it.

Let September Build the Picture

September rewards observation over sweeping conclusions. Each game reveals more about quarterback play, coaching changes, offensive cohesion and defensive strengths, showing whether preseason expectations remain justified or need adjusting.

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By October, several weeks of meaningful football will have reduced much of the uncertainty surrounding Week 1. September is about refining expectations as evidence accumulates, allowing genuine patterns to emerge and separate themselves from early-season noise.


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Extragalactic readies for Group 1 Moir Stakes in 2026

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Extragalactic’s pursuit of Group 1 success is set to commence this Saturday in the $750,000 Moir Stakes at Sandown.

Pakenham-based trainer Trent Edmonds will present the four-year-old mare for her initial outing since a narrow second-place finish behind Desert Lightning in The Goodwood, a 1000-metre weight-for-age event.

The outcome of The Goodwood was a hard lesson for Edmonds, but it has only strengthened his resolve to see the Deep Field filly achieve a breakthrough at the highest level.

Edmonds is convinced that Extragalactic has improved significantly during her spell between campaigns.

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“I think she’s going better and I couldn’t have her any better for a first-up effort – she’s really on song and she’s right in the spot,” he stated.

“I’m really confident that I’ve got the right horse going there and she’s in the right space.

“She’s filling me with confidence, she’s really well and I can’t have any better.”

The Moir Stakes will be only the eighth appearance in Extragalactic’s career, where she has secured three wins and three second placings.

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She is aiming to secure Edmonds’ first solo Black Type win since concluding his partnership with his father Toby, with whom he claimed the Group 1 Stradbroke Handicap with Tyzone in 2020.

The Queenslander established his base at Pakenham midway through the 2023/24 season, which was approximately when he acquired Extragalactic for $160,000 at the Magic Millions’ Gold Coast Yearling Sale.

She was the only yearling Edmonds purchased at the 2024 edition of the renowned sale.

As the second foal from the Al Maher mare Alliterate, Extragalactic’s immediate family members do not boast extensive Black Type records, though significant names appear further down her lineage.

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Her fourth dam, What Price Glory, is a half-sister to Steam Heat, who serves as the granddam of The Everest victor Yes Yes Yes and the dual Group 1 winner In Her Time (Black Caviar Lightning and The Galaxy).

These established bloodlines, combined with her physical presentation, made Extragalactic a highly sought-after prospect for Edmonds.

“She just looked sharp,” he recalled of his initial observation.

“She wasn’t overly big, but she was a good athlete that had a really good, long, fluent walk and great hind quarter.

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“I thought, ‘alright, you’re obviously a pretty good sort and you’re well put-together, even though you’re not overly big, so I’ll have a crack’.”

Extragalactic, born in August 2022, is effectively part of the final progeny group from the sire Deep Field.

He stood for one final season at Newgate Farm in the year Extragalactic was born, producing only seven live foals, with five of those subsequently being named.

“They’re really good, versatile, tough stock and, basically, that was one of the reasons I wanted to buy her,” Edmonds mentioned.

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“I liked the sire, I knew that he wasn’t serving anymore, or that her crop was going to be one of his last full teams, and she was in my price range.”

It was not Edmonds’ initial intention to target the Moir Stakes first-up for Extragalactic, but she enters the race without a lead-up run after being scratched from the Group 3 Carlyon Stakes (1000m) on August 22 due to the Heavy track conditions.

The decision was not based on an inability to handle a wet track, which she has a chance to encounter this weekend, but rather a strategic choice to avoid a heavy surface for her preparatory run.

“I scratched her from the Carlyon purely because I didn’t want to rip the guts out of her first-up at 1000, knowing that my first big target for the preparation was in two weeks’ time,” Edmonds explained.

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“I wasn’t running away from the Heavy, I was trying to protect her and have her cherry ripe this week rather than trying to patch her back up after a Heavy track run.”

Extragalactic has finished second in both her starts on Soft tracks, including The Goodwood which was run on a Soft 6. Deep Field is recognised as a sire of strong wet-track performers, with a 34.2 percent winners-to-runners ratio and a 16 percent winning strike-rate on Heavy tracks.

Considering a punt? Discover the best racing odds for the Moir Stakes.

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FIFA blames UEFA for ‘smear campaign’ against Infantino

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World football governing body FIFA took a lash at Europe’s UEFA for starting a “smear campaign” and “fishing expedition” against FIFA and its President Gianni Infantino.

This comes after a dispute between the two organizations due to FIFA’s plan to sell a stake in its commercial rights, with UEFA submitting an ex parte application to the US District Court in New York to obtain testimony and documents from US-based entities. These documents will be used in potential criminal proceedings in Switzerland, where both FIFA and UEFA are based.

“While these applications are styled as legal pleadings with captions and docket numbers, they are little more than press releases in further support of UEFA’s smear campaign against FIFA and its leadership,” FIFA said in a filing in US District Court in Colorado on Thursday.

FIFA’s filing in Colorado was a motion to intervene, requesting that the discovery process be postponed or dismissed.

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Rodri of Spain lifts the World Cup trophy after Spain won the FIFA World Cup 2026 Final match between Spain and Argentina in New Jersey, United States
Spain won the 2026 FIFA World Cup [FILE: July 2026]Image: Evrim Aydin/Anadolu/picture alliance

According to UEFA, the FIFA Forward Enterprise (FFE), an entity which would have had the commercial rights linked over the FIFA World Cup to investors was developed without adequate consulting FIFA’s 211 member associations, as well as FIFA’s own governing bodies.

UEFA threatened to boycott the FIFA World Cup should the move go ahead.

The move would have affected both the men’s and the women’s tournaments.

FIFA argued that the association representing European football had tried to scupper the proposal with a bid to keep European football’s dominance as is.

Demands for Infatino’s resignation

Pressure has been mounting on both FIFA and its President Gianni Infantino since the FFE plans were made public.

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 FIFA World Cup 2026 logo is pictured on the side of B.C. Place in Vancouver,
Criticism is mounting over FIFA’s now-scrapped plans to sell a stake in the World Cup’s commercial rights [FILE: May 2026]Image: Ethan Cairns/ZUMA/IMAGO

This resulted in several countries saying they will not support Infantino’s reelection for a fourth term as president in March 2027, when the Swiss-born FIFA boss looks for a fourth term in office.

Aside from UEFA, two other continental confederations demand Infantino’s resignation.

Both CONCACAF, representing North and Central America and the Caribbean, and the Asian Football Confederation (AFC) voiced their objections to Infantino. Only the South American and African confederations still support him.

UEFA also demanded a “genuinely independent external review” of how the proposal came about.

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“FIFA cannot investigate itself and expect the football community to simply accept its conclusions,” UEFA said.

FIFA revolt: Can Infantino’s Trump connection save him?

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Edited by: Dmytro Hubenko

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Adley Rutschman propels Red Sox to 6-5 win in first game back in Baltimore

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Adley Rutschman tormented his former team in his first game back at Camden Yards, hitting two home runs and leading the Red Sox to a 6-5 win in Baltimore.

Batting third for Boston, Rutschman received a standing ovation from the Camden Yards faithful in the 1st, tipping his helmet to the fans who still had plenty of love for the former Oriole. He then repaid that love by launching Brandon Young’s hanging curveball onto the flag court for an early 1-0 lead for Boston.

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The Orioles would tie the game in the first on a Pete Alonso sac fly, before Alonso and Luis Robert Jr. provided some fireworks of their own in the 4th. Robert, the newest Oriole, marked his Camden Yards debut by blasting a Jack Bennett fastball into the left-field stands. The Polar Bear then followed suit, golfing a changeup below his knees just out of the reach of Boston’s CF for his 33rd long ball of the season.

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Those back-to-back jacks put the Orioles up 3-1, a lead they held until Rutschman came back up in the 6th. With one out and the bases empty, Young tried to challenge his former teammate with a fastball up and in. Rutschman turned on the heater and sent another solo shot to right field to cut the Orioles’ lead in half.

After the Red Sox tied the game at 3-3 in the 7th, the former Baltimore backstop was then in the heart of another rally in the 8th. Jahmai Jones led off the inning with a single to left, bringing up Rutschman with the winning run on first. The three-time All-Star bounced a would-be double-play ball to third; however, a hard slide by Jones at second caused Blaze Alexander’s throw to skip off Alonso’s forearm and allowed Rutschman to go to second.

Like on his home run trots, the Boston catcher didn’t have to run hard to score his third run of the day. Two batters later, Nick Sogard homered off a Yennier Cano sinker at the knees to put the Red Sox up 5-3. The Sogard blast ended Cano’s streak of 48 straight appearances without allowing a homer. Roman Anthony would then take Albert Suárez deep in the 9th for the Red Sox’s fourth homer of the evening, putting Boston up 6-3.

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Unexpectedly, that insurance run would prove important as Aroldis Chapman came in for the save in the 9th. After Alonso struck out to begin the frame, Gunnar Henderson slapped a belt-high fastball to left to give the Orioles some hope. That hope grew even more two pitches later, as Christian Encarnacion-Strand turned on a fastball at the top of the zone, blasting a two-run homer to left to chop Boston’s lead down to one.

The thoughts of a comeback quickly faded, however. The future Hall of Fame closer got Leody Taveras to fly out to center for the second out of the inning. Chapman then got ahead of Dylan Beavers 0-2 before blowing a 100mph fastball past the rookie outfielder to secure Boston’s win.

Outside of the two mistakes to Rutschman, Young was excellent for 6.2 innings on Thursday. He struck out the first two batters he faced, fanning Roman Anthony and Mickey Gasper on low splitters. He’d get two quick outs in the 2nd before punching out Jarren Duran on a splitter just off the outside corner.

After Rutschman’s first homer, Young set down the next six Red Sox he faced, with the streak ending on a two-out walk to Anthony in the 3rd. BY would cap that inning with a Gasper flyout to finish the first three innings with only two baserunners and three strikeouts.

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The Orioles’ big right-hander ran into his first real jam in the 4th thanks to a brief lapse of control. After two flyouts to start the inning, Nick Sogard walked on four pitches to extend the frame. Young then tried to run a sinker in on the hands of Caleb Durbin, but clipped the Red Sox’s 3B to give Boston two on with two outs. The big Texan got out of the jam by getting Duran to fly out on a high fastball, stranding both runners.

Young breezed through a 1-2-3 5th inning on just 12 pitches. Rutschman’s second homer of the night snapped a streak of 17 straight Red Sox plate appearances without a hit. Young rebounded from that blast by striking out Wilyer Abreu looking on a curveball at the knees. Sogard then lined out to close out another strong frame from the 28-year-old righty.

Having only thrown 81 pitches through six innings, Young got the green light from manager Craig Albernaz to go back out for the 7th. At first, it looked like the right decision, with Durbin lining out after two pitches and Duran striking out on a 3-2 splitter at the knees. However, with two outs, Boston outfielder Eli White poked a first-pitch fastball down the right-field line to put the tying run on second. Albernaz let Young pitch to Isiah Kiner-Falefa, who bounced another ball through the right side. The single scored White, tied the game at three and chased Young from the game.

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The Orioles’ most reliable starter finished with a line that doesn’t accurately reflect how good he was Thursday. Finishing with 6.2 IP, 4 H, 3 ER, 2 BB and 7 Ks, his stats paint the picture of a good but not great start from BY. At times, however, he was untouchable, generating 12 swings and misses and producing 5 Ks on his splitter alone. If not for two mistakes to Rutschman, Young might have earned a win; instead, he finished with a somewhat unjust No Decision.

Thanks to Cleveland losing Thursday, the Orioles remain 1.5 GB of the last Wild Card spot in the AL. Shane Baz takes the mound tomorrow night looking to end Baltimore’s three-game skid.

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Ronan O’Gara Linked With New La Rochelle Contract

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Ronan O’Gara is reportedly moving closer to a new long-term agreement with La Rochelle amid speculation surrounding the Leinster head coach position.

Ronan O’Gara is reportedly close to agreeing a four-year contract extension that would keep him at La Rochelle until 2031.

The former Ireland and Munster out-half had been widely discussed as a possible candidate to replace Leo Cullen when the Leinster head coach steps down at the end of the 2026-27 season.

However, reports emerging from France suggest O’Gara is preparing to commit his future to La Rochelle and continue his pursuit of a first Top 14 championship.

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O’Gara at La Rochelle

Joined coaching team: 2019

Champions Cup titles: 2022 and 2023

Current deal: Runs to 2027

Reported extension: Four years, to 2031

European success in France

O’Gara joined La Rochelle in 2019 following coaching spells with Racing 92 and the Crusaders. He subsequently established the French club as one of Europe’s leading sides.

La Rochelle defeated Leinster in consecutive Champions Cup finals in 2022 and 2023, with O’Gara’s tactical influence and competitive personality becoming central to the club’s identity.

The Top 14 title remains the major prize missing from his La Rochelle record. The club have twice reached the domestic final during his tenure, only to be denied by Toulouse.

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What it could mean for Leinster

Cullen’s planned departure has already prompted considerable discussion about who might succeed him in Dublin. O’Gara’s success in France and his familiarity with Irish rugby made him an obvious name to include in that conversation.

A new agreement with La Rochelle would make such a move considerably less likely, although no appointment process has reached a public conclusion.

Leinster chief executive Shane Nolan has said the province is working with the IRFU to identify Cullen’s successor but has declined to discuss individual candidates.

O’Gara has also spoken previously about his ambition to coach Ireland at some point in his career. A contract running until 2031 would not necessarily end that possibility, but it would place any return to Irish rugby much further into the future.

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Until an extension is formally announced, O’Gara’s future will remain the subject of speculation. The latest reports nevertheless indicate that La Rochelle are determined to retain the coach who delivered the greatest successes in the club’s history.


The proposed contract extension has been reported but had not been formally confirmed by La Rochelle at the time of publication.


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Alex Eala’s fans reciprocate her love by packing even her practices

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Even Alex Eala’s trainingsessions are certified sellouts.

Even Alex Eala’s training sessions are certified sellouts. —KEATS LONDON

There was, for Alex Eala, something a bit unfamiliar about this year’s US Open.

“It felt different, definitely,” she said on Wednesday (Manila time) after her victory over Mary Stoiana in her opening match at Flushing Meadows in Queens, New York.

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“It was my first time playing on one of the main stadiums here [at the] US Open, and it was very loud,” the world No. 18 told reporters. “And especially when the roof is covered. So that’s something that adds to the atmosphere, but it’s also something you have to navigate.”

There was also that one bit about coming in as a seeded player, 17th in the women’s field, compared to last year when she won her first main-draw Grand Slam match against a seeded opponent.

“Yeah, of course, coming in as a seeded player and having done pretty good … [during] American swing, it brings a different vibe,” the Filipino superstar said. “Of course, you’re a little more confident.”

“But [that’s] not to say that one is … more challenging than the other. It’s just different circumstances. There’s a little more expectation [this year].”

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Eala was playing Oleksandra Oliynykova of Ukraine at press time with a shot at extending her run at USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Center, which is about a seven-minute train ride from Woodside, the Queens neighborhood known as “Little Manila” for its strong Filipino community.

And staying in contention would mean a lot to her fans, mostly immigrants from the Philippines, who take every opportunity to see her in the flesh. Eala Mania has turned every WTA tournament the 21-year-old ace joins into an “it” event. And that’s amplified in New York, where even her practice sessions have been packed to the rafters.

But whether or not she gets an extended stint, playing in the US Open already means so much for Eala, who first played in New York in an eight-under tournament more than a decade ago.

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“It’s nice to revisit this place and experience it a little bit differently in different stages of my life,” she said before the tournament started.

Against Stoiana, Eala put on a dominant show, but she admitted that beneath the surface, she dealt with some inner tension.

“[T]here were nerves for sure. And I’m not really sure if I can pinpoint where they came from, if it’s from the noise, if it’s from [playing in] the first round of a Slam,” she said. “But I think with experience, my goal is to, you know, tune it out. And I’ve, I’ve had experience with big crowds, especially in the past year.”

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“And in the end, when you get into the groove, get into the rhythm … a match is a match, whether or not I think there are so many people.”

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Change for a guy with $145 billion

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One of the biggest punishments from the NBA was the $30 million fine it imposed on LA Clippers owner Steve Ballmer. The league concluded its probe into the Clippers’ salary-circumvention scandal involving star forward Kawhi Leonard.

Ballmer has also been banned for a year and will not be able to participate in any team and league activities. The NBA punished more than just the owner of the team. The Clippers’ president of business operations, Gillian Zucker, is suspended for a year without pay, and its president of basketball operations, Lawrence Frank, is suspended for six months without pay.

The Clippers must forfeit five consecutive first-round draft picks spanning from 2029 through 2033. Lastly, Leonard must pay a $700,000 fine.

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On Thursday, Filipino-American journalist Pablo Torre gave his candid thoughts on the NBA’s punishments.

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“I thought that it could have been more,” Torre said about Steve Ballmer.

“$30 million is change for a guy with $145 billion … but the thing about the scope and the vastness of it, the five first-rounders. I think it was unprecedented in that regard, but also because it was narrow in scope.”

Torre, the journalist who broke the news about the Clippers’ salary circumvention in September 2025, also hinted that investigations might not be over.

“It’s only the beginning, somehow.”

Steve Ballmer has a net worth of $152.7 billion, according to Forbes. As the ninth-wealthiest person in the world, Torre pointed out that $30 million isn’t a massive fine.

After the news about the NBA’s probe findings on Wednesday, the Clippers addressed it through a lengthy statement. The organization wants to “vigorously challenge” the findings and penalties. The team also penned a letter to NBA Commissioner Adam Silver, condemning the findings.

Stephen A. Smith Calls Steve Ballmer Lucky for His Punishments

Due to the NBA’s penalties, Steve Ballmer will not be allowed to attend any team meetings or be with the players for a year. On Thursday’s episode of “First Take,” the longtime analyst commented on the Clippers owner.

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“Number one, let’s hope that they don’t recover from this for a while,” he said. “Steve Ballmer is lucky that he hasn’t been banned and he’s not being forced to sell the team, if this is true, and it appears that it is. He’s lucky because the fact of the matter is a year suspension, he’s getting off light.”

Smith also addressed the entire salary circumvention as “stupidity” for the Clippers. The ESPN analyst pointed out that the two-time champion collected over $291 million from them, while the Clippers got the worst end of the NBA’s penalties.

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