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What Constitutes A Good Season for the 2026 Vikings?
We are nearly there.
Eight months on from the last time the Minnesota Vikings played meaningful football, Week 1 of the regular season is nearly upon us, with the Minnesota Vikings kicking things off by hosting the Green Bay Packers in just over a week. What should the expectations be for the 2026 incarnation of the Vikings? This seems the perfect time to look at what would constitute a good season for Minnesota in 2026.
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What Constitutes A Good Season For The 2026 Vikings?
Unless there are some very last-minute additions to the roster following the late pickup of Kyle Van Noy to the practice squad, the Vikings roster is set, and we know what we are dealing with for the 2026 season.
Last year, it felt like the Vikings were a disaster, but a flurry of late-season wins dragged Minnesota up to nine wins.
Aug 15, 2026; East Rutherford, New Jersey, USA; New York Giants wide receiver Odell Beckham Jr. (3) talks with Minnesota Vikings wide receiver Justin Jefferson (18) and head coach Kevin O’Connell before the game at MetLife Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Vincent Carchietta-Imagn Images
Only two major departures have occurred. First, Jonathan Greenard was traded to the Philadelphia Eagles. Despite offseason speculation, there is still no sign of Harrison Smith coming back for one more year.
Important incoming players include Kyler Murray, Jauan Jennings, and James Pierre, as well as this year’s band of rookies. Should we expect better from the Vikings in 2026? I certainly think so. Below I set out five different ways this season can go and what that means for the franchise.
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8 Wins or Less = Bad
Fewer wins than last season just wouldn’t be acceptable and would surely put head coach Kevin O’Connell on the hot seat. As long as Murray stays healthy, the Vikings should get consistent enough play out of him to at least match last year’s record.
If it’s eight wins, maybe O’Connell can survive, but the lower the win tally gets, the more likely he is to follow Kwesi Adofo-Mensah out the door, and new general manager Nolan Teasley will look for his own guy.
Wild Card Playoff Spot = Decent
Sep 8, 2025; Chicago, Illinois, USA; Minnesota Vikings head coach Kevin O’Connell reacts against the Chicago Bears during the second half at Soldier Field. Mandatory Credit: Matt Marton-Imagn Images
The minimum requirement. O’Connell needs to do what he’s managed to do in every season that starts with an equal number, and lead his team to the playoffs. In a tough division, 9-10 wins and a wild-card spot in the playoffs would be a respectable effort. This is where I personally expect the Vikings to be this season, which should bring a tough first game in the playoffs on the road.
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Division Winners = Good
It feels like a big ask, but the Vikings weren’t expected to win the division in O’Connell’s first season back in 2022. If they could do it again, that would certainly make it a good season. How many wins would it take? 13 wins did it in 2022, but 14 was only good enough for second place in 2024. Last season, the Chicago Bears needed only 11 wins to take the division crown. However many wins it takes, a division title is always a positive thing. It would put Minnesota back where they want to be and possibly make them genuine contenders.
Win(s) in the Playoff = Very Good
O’Connell has yet to win a playoff game, and it is a glaring omission from his CV. His coaching has received a lot of buzz across the league, including winning Coach of the Year in 2024. For his name to be firmly in the conversation as one of the league’s best coaches, he has to guide his team to a playoff win.
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Can he do that this year?
Of course, a lot can depend on where the team lands in the seeding and who they come up against, but a playoff win has to be the big goal. Snag one, and you can make this season a success. You have to go back to 2019 for the last time the Vikings won a playoff game.
Super Bowl Win = The Dream
Feb 8, 2026; Santa Clara, CA, USA; Seattle Seahawks quarterback Sam Darnold (14) celebrates with the Vince Lombardi trophy on the podium after defeating the New England Patriots in Super Bowl LX at Levi’s Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images
No one is expecting this team to win the Super Bowl, but no one was expecting the Seattle Seahawks to win it last season. It’s the joy of sports and why so many — fans included — invest so much time and emotion into it. If they could pull off this dream scenario, the 2026 Vikings would go down as the greatest team in franchise history.
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Dare to dream!
Also Read on Vikings Territory:Kyle Van Noy a Needed Addition, More on Why McCarthy Stays and Cutdown Reactions
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