Who our staff is betting on at Royal Birkdale

Jordan Spieth and Scottie Scheffler were stumped. Who, they wondered, would be considered the defending champion this week at the Open Championship: Scheffler, last year’s winner, or Spieth, the champion in 2017, the last time the Open was played at Royal Birkdale? 

“I said, ‘Well, are you the defending champ,’ Spieth said recently, “‘or am I the defending champ?’

“He was like, ‘No, it’s you.’

“‘I was like, ‘No, no, no, you don’t get to do that. It’s you.”

Whatever the case may be, consider Spieth’s mood light then, and if you’re backing him for a Birkdale defense, that’s welcomed, of course. Are there other positive signs? Maybe. This season on the PGA Tour, he’s missed just two cuts in 18 starts. His Strokes Gained stats are fair: 60th in total, 74th in tee to green, 73rd in off the tee, 83rd in approach the green, 85th in around the green and 53rd in putting. 

And there’s this:

“I’m more consistent and an all-around better player,” he said, “than I’ve been in a long time.”

Why’s that?

“Statistically, I feel like I could lead every category on a given week, and I have this year,” Spieth said. “It means that each part of my game can be at the highest level. I just haven’t put it together and put it together consistently enough yet.

“But my mechanics are mainly what’s significantly better. Then build-up of confidence, trusting in my wrist, simple things. That wasn’t always something that was an issue, but when it was, it was.

“So a lot of factors, but I mean, all this last offseason I probably worked as hard as I had since I was 13 or 14 years old on mechanics. I feel like I don’t have to — I played a lot of the season feeling like I had to exaggerate a lot, but I would get it to the right place. It’s hard to be consistent feeling a super exaggerated move. I like to feel something, but I don’t want it to be crazy.

“I feel like as the year has progressed, I’ve actually been able to — it’s been tighter and tighter and tighter, but whether it’s some decisions I’ve made or just, you know, a bad putting round or a bad putting tournament or maybe I hit two drives left on the wrong hole. It’s been a different thing in certain tournaments that prevented me from having a chance on Sunday. Instead, I was starting in 18th, and I finished 13th.

“To me it’s, like, OK, well maybe one week I’ll get away with that drive or something like that. When you win, a lot of times you kind of — you get away with something or a ball carries a bunker, and you made eagle versus, you know, going in it and making par. Just little things that happen throughout the first few days that I just have not been quite consistent enough, even though my overall game is way more consistent and the tools are all there at each area. That’s what I mean.”

Looking for some other ideas for the Open? Friend, you’ve clicked on the right article, where members of our staff have each made a to-win bet. The hope is, of course, that we help you with your own weekly picks, whether those are for a low-stakes office fantasy league or (legal!) big-bucks bets with a sportsbook.

On to our picks.

2026 Open Championship picks to win 

Alan Bastable 

To-win: Viktor Hovland, +3,300. Hovland has not played well in the majors this year. (He packed his bags on Friday at both the PGA Championship and U.S. Open.) But this week, he reverses the trend. Not only is he coming off a win at the Travelers and a tie for 13th at the Scottish, but in between his clunkers at Aronimink and Shinnecock, he also snuck in a third-place finish at the Canadian Open. His status as one of the game’s best iron players also will be a boon at Birkdale. Time to avenge Norway’s loss to England …

Adam Christensen 

To-win: Chris Gotterup, +2,800. Gotterup is one of the most in-form golfers in the world right now. Nobody is having a better season outside the major championships, and he has shown the ability to bring his game across the pond. His wide-open, push-draw stance is unique, and his ability to vary his ball flights is incredibly fun to watch. Having his ticket when he is in contention coming down the stretch should be a great time. 

James Colgan 

To-win: Tommy Fleetwood, +1,600. He’s far too popular a choice to actually win this golf tournament, especially not with his hometown coming just up the road. Players NEVER win the event they want to win above all the others. They NEVER do it in front of all their loved ones. And nope, they NEVER win in that setting for their first major. OK, have I done enough reverse-jinxing yet? Please let this one happen.

Alex Gelman 

To-win: Scottie Scheffler, +750. Scheffler is the pick to win the Open. After missing the cut last week for the first time in four years, expect the world No. 1 to respond. The value is too good to pass up. If everyone else wants to fade Scottie after one bad week, I’ll gladly back the best player in the world.

Jack Hirsh 

To win: Tommy Fleetwood, +1,600. Seems like everyone here is going for the best story, and that would be Tommy Lad getting it done in his hometown. He finally got his first PGA Tour win last year. Has been playing just about as well as anyone without a win this season and finally got the putter heated up after a slow start to the year. This would be an all-time feel-good one, and there’s no way I’m picking against it.

Jessica Marksbury

To-win: Scottie Scheffler, +750. I know, I KNOW. Picking the world No. 1 to win a major isn’t particularly edgy, but I think last week’s missed cut may actually turn out to be helpful for Scottie. Of course, he doesn’t have anything to prove, and his results this year speak for themselves, but I’m banking on the fact that extra rest will combine with some additional competitive fire to deliver a big-time performance this week.

Maddi MacClurg  

To-win: Tommy Fleetwood, +1,600. Tommy Lad seems like the pick this week. He’s playing some of the best golf of his career with six top-10 finishes this season, and now the Open rolls into his backyard at Royal Birkdale. He grew up flighting shots into the blustery winds of links courses, and that’s exactly the kind of creativity this championship rewards. Add a massive home crowd behind him, and it feels like everything is lining up for Fleetwood to get his hands on the Claret Jug.

Nick Piastowski 

To-win: Ludvig Aberg, +2,800. He’s been solid all year, outside of average putting. He wins his first major this week. (And gives me back-to-back majors of picking the winner.) 

Josh Schrock

To-win: Rory McIlroy +850. My heart tells me to take Tommy, but I keep thinking about Rory at Portrush in 2019, when the winning-at-home narrative was EVERYWHERE, and he blew it OB on the first hole and missed the cut. I don’t think Tommy will implode, but I don’t think he gets the major monkey off his back this time. Rory is playing good golf, he’s rested, and has been one of the best Open players of the past decade. He has handled this Masters victory better than his last and truly seems freed up — major No. 7 incoming. 

Josh Sens

To-win: Rory McIlroy, +850. The best player in the world not named Scottie Scheffler is in full free-roll mode, energy focused squarely on the majors, playing without the weight of unmet expectations. It’s kind of shocking that he’s won this event only once. Right in his wheelhouse. Here comes number two.

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