Who’s the next Leo Carlsson? A look at upcoming intriguing RFAs

When we think of offer sheets like the massive one Leo Carlsson signed last week, your mind naturally drifts to the player side of the equation as you scout around the league wondering who — if anyone — could be next.

Before we address that, though, what about the other side of the coin?

Will teams see the Philadelphia Flyers’ bold play — general manager Daniel Briere threw $90 million over five years at Carlsson — and view it as the off-season version of, “Why not us?”

When you’re talking about trying to lure a young player to your team, it really widens the field in terms of what type of club — as in, where they are in their competitive arc — could conceivably be interested.

Philly is an up-and-coming squad trying to surge forward. Couldn’t the same, more or less, be said of Montreal, Buffalo, Utah and Pittsburgh?

What about rebuilding squads near the bottom of the standings trying to expedite what can be a long process? On one hand, you could see a team in that position balking at a price like four first-round picks — which is what the Flyers would fork over to the Anaheim Ducks if the latter doesn’t match the offer to Carlsson by Friday — during a down phase for the franchise. On the other, why leave your fate up to lottery luck? Instead, make a strong play for one immaculate, known entity who has already shown real promise in the league and is on the precipice of his best seasons. 

Could a bottom-feeder like the Seattle Kraken — who already have a decent prospect cupboard and had big-money plays for Artemi Panarin and Jason Robertson thwarted in 2026 — go that route?

At the other end of the standings, a contender with cap space — and, boy, that upper limit is rising higher and higher — could take the unconventional route of offer-sheeting a young player to put them over the top.

The only consideration there, of course, is you must have the draft capital to complete the transaction. If we’re talking about an offer that features an AAV of (basically) $12 million or above, four teams currently can’t fulfill the obligation of handing over four first-rounders in the next five drafts, thus making them ineligible to tender an offer sheet in 2026: the Toronto Maple Leafs, Colorado Avalanche, New York Rangers and the Florida Panthers.

In terms of having cap space, remember the upper limit for the 2027-28 campaign is expected to be $113.5 million. That means, by the second season of his new five-year contract, Carlsson’s AAV will be taking up only 16 per cent (the maximum for one player is 20 per cent) of either the Flyers or Ducks cap. In 2025-26 terms, that’s basically a $15 million AAV. 

With all that in mind — and with a huge assist from the heroes over at Puckpedia — let’s take a look at some high-profile and/or intriguing RFAs and potential RFAs from now until 2028.

Adam Fantilli, Columbus Blue Jackets

For a minute there, it seemed like things could really slide off the rails this summer in Ohio. But both Zach Werenski — with two years to go before he can become a UFA — and Kirill Marchenko — who is offer-sheet eligible as an RFA in 2027 — remain with the club. For now.

Surely the Jackets see Adam Fantilli, picked one spot after Carlsson at third overall in 2023, as the centrepiece they need to lock down. Fantilli hasn’t truly exploded offensively yet, but he’s a big No. 1 centre with all kinds of leverage given some of the big-picture question marks in Columbus. 

If you were a team seriously contemplating an offer to Carlsson, any chance you’d pivot to Fantilli?

Connor Bedard, Chicago Blackhawks

You knew there was still a long road ahead when the Hawks took Bedard first overall in 2023, but three years into his career, Chicago has yet to even sniff a playoff spot.

Bedard, who sustained an apparent shoulder injury during off-season training last week, is due for a new deal and it will be interesting to see how long-term he commits. Will he take an eight-year deal — which can only be offered until September, when new CBA stipulations will limit term to seven years — or a shorter deal that offers more flexibility in coming years.

Chicago paid a heavy price to acquire and sign defenceman Bowen Byram; now it’s time to lock down the franchise centre.

Macklin Celebrini, San Jose Sharks

Like everyone who is a potential 2027 RFA, Celebrini is eligible to ink an extension any day now. Would it surprise anyone if Celebrini’s next deal supplanted Kirill Kaprizov’s contract ($136 million over eight years) as the richest deal in NHL history? If you’re San Jose, no question you’re hoping to secure Celebrini’s services for as long as possible. An eight-year deal — which is eating into pricey UFA years — at, say, $19 million per season would come in at a total of $152 million.

And, honestly, it might soon seem like a bargain. 

Matvei Michkov, Philadelphia Flyers

If the Flyers don’t land Carlsson, they can turn their attention to extending the Russian winger who fell to them at No. 7 in 2023. It hasn’t been all smiles and sunshine for Michkov during his first two years in the league, but the talent is there.

Where a situation like this gets interesting — beyond the obvious curiosity of whether teams will target Philly after its play for Carlsson — is if Michkov doesn’t ink an extension this summer, has another 20-goal season and doesn’t seem like a slam-dunk for a monster deal. 

Would a team swoop in and make a big bet that he can be their guy in a different situation?

Kirill Marchenko, Columbus Blue Jackets

As noted above, Marchenko has one year left on his deal it and it sure doesn’t seem as though he’ll be putting pen to paper in Columbus any time soon.

A lot can change in a year, but this will be a serious situation to monitor if Marchenko remains unsigned next summer — assuming he’s not traded in the interim. 

He’s provided crazy value for Columbus on his current three-year bridge deal, which packs an AAV of just under $4 million.

His next AAV could be nearly quadruple that. 

In the history of the NHL, only two goalies have received offer sheets — both resulting in successful bids — and they occurred within two weeks of each other. If you just said to yourself, “Yeah, Ron Tugnutt to Ottawa and Arturs Irbe to Dallas in 1996,” please depart immediately for the Hockey Hall of Fame in Toronto and demand they open an entire wing in your honour.

Could we see another goalie offer in 2027? Probably not, but let’s flag the names Jesper Wallstedt in Minnesota, Joel Hofer in St. Louis and Yaroslav Askarov in San Jose. 

All three goalies will be coming off two-year deals signed in 2025 and in the mid-20s-age sweet spot where goalies firmly establish themselves in the league. Hofer is taking the reins in St. Louis, Wallstedt has a goalie partner, in Filip Gustavsson, who accounts for an AAV of $6.8 million through 2031 and Askarov must prove he’s worth betting on as the guy who can backstop an emerging power in San Jose.

It’s hard to see any of these clubs parting with these players, but — as we know — things change fast in the crease. 

Matthew Schaefer, New York Islanders

The real question here is, with both Quinn Hughes and Cale Makar eligible to ink extensions right now, how will Schaefer’s first non-ELC contract measure up to those new deals?

It’s a long way to look down the road, but even if Schaefer — who can sign an extension 51 weeks from now — inked a deal that carried a $21 million AAV, that would represent only 17 per cent of his team’s cap hit in the first year (2028-29) of his new pact, when the upper limit is projected to be $123 million. 

This is a clear blank-cheque situation for the Isles. 

Beckett Sennecke, Anaheim Ducks

Let’s be honest, whether they keep Carlsson or not, everything to do with the Ducks and payroll just got a lot more interesting.

Sennecke is coming off a fantastic rookie season where he not only finished third in Calder Trophy voting, but came through in the playoffs with five goals in 12 outings. 

If Anaheim lets Carlsson go, there will be extra pressure to keep the rest of the young crew intact. If Carlsson stays, there’s a pretty high precedent for what great young players get on their second contract in the organization.