Why I Don’t Think Argentina Will Win the 2026 FIFA World Cup

Argentina head into the 2026 FIFA World Cup as defending champions and one of the favourites to lift the trophy again. Since winning the World Cup in Qatar in 2022, Lionel Scaloni’s side have continued to impress, winning the Copa América and finishing strongly in South American qualifying.

However, despite their success, I do not believe Argentina will win the 2026 FIFA World Cup. The biggest reason is simple: Lionel Messi is no longer the player he was four years ago.

In Qatar 2022, Messi produced one of the greatest World Cup performances in football history. He was the heart of Argentina’s attack, scoring crucial goals, creating chances and inspiring his teammates in difficult moments. Whenever Argentina needed something special, Messi delivered.

But football does not stand still. Messi is now older and no longer plays at the highest level of club football. Since moving to Major League Soccer in the United States, he has continued to produce impressive statistics, but the intensity and quality of MLS cannot be compared to Europe’s top leagues. Week after week, he is no longer facing the same level of opposition that he did during his time at Barcelona, Paris Saint-Germain or even during the 2022 World Cup cycle.

As a result, expecting Messi to dominate matches against the world’s best national teams in 2026 may be unrealistic. Age catches up with every player, no matter how great they are.

Take it or leave it, without a fit and magical Messi, Argentina are not the same team. In my view, they become a very good side rather than an unbeatable one. They have talented players across the pitch, but they do not possess another footballer capable of changing the course of a World Cup match in the way Messi did in Qatar.

Some will point to Argentina’s victories over strong teams without Messi, including their impressive win over Brazil during qualifying. While those results show that the squad has depth and quality, tournament football is different. World Cups are often decided by moments of genius. In 2022, Messi provided those moments repeatedly.

Another concern is that Argentina have not faced enough elite opposition outside South America during this World Cup cycle. Regular matches against weaker nations do not always reveal a team’s weaknesses. The World Cup is a completely different challenge, where every mistake is punished by world-class opponents.

There are also fitness concerns surrounding some key members of the squad. Several experienced players have battled injuries in recent months. A long tournament demands physical freshness, and Argentina cannot afford to lose important players at critical stages.

None of this means Argentina will have a poor tournament. They have an excellent coach in Lionel Scaloni, a winning mentality and one of the strongest squads in international football. Reaching the quarter-finals or even the semi-finals would not be a surprise.

However, winning the World Cup requires more than quality. It requires exceptional players performing at their absolute peak. In 2022, Argentina had that advantage because Messi was still capable of producing magic whenever it was needed.

In 2026, I am not convinced he can do it consistently against the world’s best teams. And without a Messi operating at his 2022 level, Argentina look less like champions and more like a team capable of reaching the quarter-finals before being stopped by one of the tournament’s other heavyweights.

That is why I do not think Argentina will win the 2026 FIFA World Cup.