Why the Raiders Might Be Wrong to Draft Fernando Mendoza at No. 1 Overall

Fernando Mendoza has been the consensus number one pick for the last few months.

It makes sense. He’s a safe option for a Raiders team that is in desperate need of a quarterback. Mendoza, coming off his Heisman victory this past season, checks a lot of boxes. Most scouts agree that he’s a very intelligent prospect. He’s very large at 6’5”, 235 pounds, solid arm talent, can move outside of pressure and extend plays with his legs, and has a generally high floor as a prospect.

I’m just not sure he’s a slam dunk first overall pick. Mendoza is good at most things, but I’m not sure he’s very elite at any one thing. I’m not saying that he isn’t good, but it feels crazy that the Las Vegas pick has been locked in since they found out they were picking first.

Scouts do not seem sold on Mendoza’s ability to process at an NFL level. Luckily, Vegas probably made the best hire of the coaching cycle in former Seahawks offensive coordinator Klin Kubiak. He runs a very high-level offense and can get the most out of a quarterback, but I could see Mendoza struggling within this offense, at least in his rookie year.

Mendoza will also be entering what could be the league’s worst situation. Ashton Jeanty was the Raider’s first round pick last year, but he struggled to develop behind one of the worst offensive lines in the league. Then you go over to receiver, and there’s not much talent there outside of Brock Bowers at tight end. Bowers is one of the best offensive tight ends in football, but I don’t love my rookie’s top target being a tight end by a massive margin.

The Raiders were mostly dysfunctional last season, and I’m not sure this is the best year for them to go all in on a QB in the first round. They need so much more help, and will also have to replace Maxx Crosby once he’s traded. Would it be absolutely insane to draft one of the elite edge players with that first pick?

Arvell Reese looked like he was made in a lab when testing at the combine, and David Bailey and Reuben Bain Jr. feel like future All-Pro guys as well. I know a team would never reach on Sonny Styles or Caleb Downs because of positional value, but I feel way better about those two players’ ability to be NFL-ready over Mendoza’s.

The NFL is a quarterback league, but our last two Super Bowl winners are the Eagles and Seahawks. Jalen Hurts and Sam Darnold certainly aren’t bad, but it was the elite teams around them that took them to the top.

It’s a lot easier to win in the NFL when a quarterback isn’t taking up a team’s entire cap space, and by the time the Raiders have a roster around Mendoza good enough to compete, I think they will be overpaying for what will be their former number one overall pick. Drafting an edge rusher won’t sell as many jerseys, but it could be a move that gets you closer to creating a playoff-contending roster.