Both IDC and Gartner are warning of declines of more than 10pc in smartphone and budget PC shipments in 2026 due to memory chip shortages.
Global smartphone shipments could decline by nearly 13pc year-on-year in 2026 to 1.1bn units, IDC warns in its quarterly mobile phone tracker, representing the biggest decline in more than 10 years.
Meanwhile, Gartner is warning that “soaring memory costs” could see a decline of 10.4pc in PC shipments worldwide, and it estimates smartphone shipments could fall by 8.4pc year-on-year.
Gartner is forecasting a 130pc surge in combined DRAM and solid-state drive (SSD) prices by the end of 2026, which it says could raise PC prices by 17pc and smartphone prices by 13pc compared to 2025.
“This is the steepest contraction in device shipments witnessed in over a decade,” said Ranjit Atwal, senior director analyst at Gartner. “Higher prices will narrow the range of devices available, prompting buyers to hold on to devices for longer, fundamentally altering upgrade cycles.”
Indeed, Gartner expects PC lifetime to increase by 15pc for business buyers and 20pc for consumers by the end of 2026, and warns that the challenge of managing older devices could increase security vulnerabilities. It also warns that any projected surge in AI PCs will now be delayed.
IDC points out that its current forecast sees a sharp decline from its November forecast amid the “intensifying memory shortage crisis”.
“What we are witnessing is not a temporary squeeze, but a tsunami-like shock originating in the memory supply chain, with ripple effects spreading across the entire consumer electronics industry,” Francisco Jeronimo, VP for worldwide client devices at IDC, warned. “The global smartphone market, particularly Android manufacturers, faces a significant threat.”
Jeronimo goes on to say that it is the vendors at the lower end of the market that will suffer most, particularly in the Android space, while higher end makers like Apple and Samsung are better positioned to navigate the crisis. In fact, it could even allow them to expand their market share while others struggle, he said.
“We expect consolidation as smaller players exit, and low-end vendors face sharp shipment declines amid supply constraints and lower demand at higher price points,” said Nabila Popal, senior research director with IDC’s Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker.
“Ultimately, we expect the sub-$500 entry-level PC segment will disappear by 2028,” said Gartner’s Atwal. “In addition, rising AI PC prices will delay the projected 50pc market penetration of AI PCs until 2028.”
Don’t miss out on the knowledge you need to succeed. Sign up for the Daily Brief, Silicon Republic’s digest of need-to-know sci-tech news.