On June 11, Kalshi released a buzzy ad featuring noted New York Knicks fan Timothée Chalamet. It was a zeitgeist-capturing moment for prediction markets, akin to the 2022 Super Bowl, when seemingly every commercial featured a celebrity shilling crypto.

Yet when I brought Chalamet’s spot up with attendees at Manifest, a recent festival for prediction markets, I was mostly met with blank stares. These conference goers—a mix of academics, startup founders, job seekers, and players in the markets—hadn’t even heard about it. They were too busy thinking about the bigger picture and the risks facing markets.

Their confusion was the perfect encapsulation of a battle that I observed again and again that weekend: The way forecasting philosophers see the markets (tools for the greater good) is very different from how the vast majority of the world sees them (a way to bet on sports).

“We were all waiting for so long to be in the world we’re in now,” Dan Schwarz, the cofounder and chief executive officer of FutureSearch, an artificial intelligence research and prediction startup, tells me. But the platforms have run into problems, from insider trading to sports contracts that, Schwarz worries, are fueling addiction. To outweigh these harms, “prediction markets would have to deliver a lot more value than they are now.”

The prognosticators, it turns out, are concerned that the very thing that’s made prediction markets a global phenomenon could be their undoing.

This year’s iteration of Manifest took place at Lighthaven, an idyllic compound in Berkeley, California. The campus, which takes up about half a city block, also functions as the epicenter of the rationalist movement, which, among other things, prioritizes the safe development of AI and effective altruism.

The vibe skewed heavily male but was still eclectic. Clusters of twenty- and thirty-somethings huddled over laptops in the Tudor-style main house, and someone told me I looked like a guy who would have a stick of gum. Talks about markets jostled for attention alongside sessions about the odds that AI will kill us all and lessons on how to optimize your sex life. There was a furry meetup and watch parties for the first US World Cup match and game 5 of the NBA Finals. (I couldn’t find anyone who had put money on either event, though a few attendees told me they knew of folks who had made bank.) There were markets on play-money platform Manifold about the festival itself, like whether someone would break a bone (still unresolved) and whether Caroline Ellison would show up (yes).

Still, the broader background conditions were wildly different from previous years. Though Kalshi and Polymarket had sponsored the event in past years, they were AWOL this year. Both companies declined to comment on the change. Last year, Kalshi held a session on sports markets, which it had launched just six months earlier. This year, the companies are facilitating billions of dollars in sports trades during an especially friendly political era at the national level.

Sports were also conspicuously absent during a session on strategies for mastering markets around world events and politics. I caught up with David Bensoussan, the session’s organizer, who has made $1.6 million in profits on the platform, under the boughs of one of Lighthaven’s trees.

“The truth-seeking mechanism that prediction markets can have in terms of predicting things and making the population more informed—what on Earth does that have to do with sports?” he asks, wrapped in a blanket to ward off the chill of Bay Area shade.

An average visitor is expected to spend around $5,400 in the US—far above the $720-$2,500 visitors to Qatar spent in 2022.

Transport at this year’s tournament is fundamentally different from that of the one-city tournament in Qatar, or in Russia in 2018, which provided free public transportation and an additional 500 trains to help people get around.

This year, because of the vast distances, the only option for fans and teams is flights, which airlines have been adding to accommodate potential World Cup travelers.

“Teams and fans now must factor in flights, not metro rides, and the carbon and cost implications are real,” Anagnostopoulos says.

The need to book flights, not trains or taxis, may also be decreasing demand for hotels simply because the travel costs are too high for some people. “US hotels are already reporting bookings below expectations,” Anagnostopoulos says. “Scale doesn’t guarantee the crowds will show up.”

Security

For organizers and host cities, the scale of the tournament demands a massive investment in security, including against threats that would have barely crossed the minds of previous hosts.

The US federal government has issued $625 million in grants for host cities to address security issues. On top of that, the Department of Homeland Security has made over $200 million worth of grants available to states to buy anti-drone technology, with the US State Department highlighting hostile actors’ increasing access to drones and other technology.

In Canada, federal authorities have issued around $104 million worth of grants to host cities Vancouver and Toronto. That brings total public grants in Canada and the US alone to nearly $1 billion—likely just a fraction of the real costs of securing the tournament.

The size of the tournament, and the fact that it crosses borders, has pushed the price tag higher.

“Qatar 2022 benefited from a highly compact geography, with venues operating within a relatively unified environment. The 2026 World Cup will involve multiple cities, jurisdictions, agencies, and technology ecosystems across the United States, Canada, and Mexico,” says Leo Levit, chair of Onvif, a membership body focused on standardization of physical security products.

“The challenge is not simply the number of systems involved, but whether those systems can exchange information efficiently,” he adds.

The Future of the World Cup

The numbers tell a story of a tournament straining under its own ambition. It’s not yet clear whether these investments will pay off in terms of tickets bought and advertising slots sold. Why, then, is FIFA pursuing growth at all costs?

According to Simon Chadwick, professor of sport and geopolitical economy at the international SKEMA Business School, the reason may be growing competition from other sports.

“What [FIFA president Gianni] Infantino is trying to do is to ensure that football remains robust, relevant, prominent and that it doesn’t begin losing market share—to the NBA, which is in China, India, Africa, and the Gulf region; to the NFL, which is making moves on Europe; and to Formula One, which has grown hugely in popularity, particularly in North America,” Chadwick says.

Rumor mill: According to a source familiar with the matter and proposed legislative language reviewed by Reuters, Meta has lobbied Congress to include a provision in the Kids Online Safety Act (KOSA) that would limit companies’ exposure to child safety and privacy lawsuits. The proposal would grant platforms immunity from state-level child-harm claims involving users under 18, a change that could undercut thousands of lawsuits already filed.

The proposal comes as lawmakers and courts increasingly scrutinize how social media platforms are designed and used by minors. Features such as infinite scrolling, activity notifications, and appearance-altering photo filters – key tools for driving user engagement – have become central to legal and regulatory battles over youth safety. Critics argue these features can encourage compulsive use, particularly among younger users.

KOSA directly targets those design choices. The bill would require companies to take reasonable steps to reduce risks associated with minors’ use of their platforms, including design elements that encourage prolonged engagement. In other words, the legislation focuses not only on the content users see, but also on the systems designed to keep them online.

At the same time, Meta’s liability proposal could reshape how families and schools pursue lawsuits over those features. The proposed language would make companies “immune from suit or liability under state law with respect to all claims for loss caused by, arising out of, relating to, or resulting from the safety or privacy of individuals under the age of eighteen online or otherwise related to the provisions” of KOSA. It would also override certain state laws governing children’s online protections.

Meta has framed the proposal as a way to establish consistent national standards rather than avoid accountability. Company spokesperson Stephanie Otway said the provision “does not extinguish existing lawsuits, nor does it represent blanket immunity.”

Instead, she said, it is intended to create “uniform national standards for online youth safety, ensuring these critical issues are governed by comprehensive federal legislation, not plaintiffs’ lawyers or patchwork state legislation.”

That interpretation is disputed by legal advocates. Julia Duncan of the American Association for Justice told Reuters that the language, as written, could have sweeping consequences for ongoing litigation. “The language is pretty clear-cut immunity against every parent, every school district, that is seeking to hold any AI or social media company accountable for harm” to children, Duncan said. “There is no other way to read this language.”

The legal stakes are not theoretical. Meta and Google’s YouTube are already facing thousands of lawsuits over alleged harms to minors. Earlier this year, the companies lost the first case to go to trial, resulting in a combined $6 million in damages. Both have said they plan to appeal.

Behind the scenes, the liability proposal appears tied to broader negotiations over KOSA’s future. The bill, sponsored by Senators Marsha Blackburn and Richard Blumenthal, passed the Senate in 2024 with strong bipartisan support but stalled in the House. It has since been reintroduced and is now part of discussions involving the White House, as well as other measures related to artificial intelligence and federal preemption of state laws.

A spokesperson for Blackburn said the office had not seen the specific liability language and would not support it.

According to the source, Meta has offered to drop its opposition to KOSA if the provision is included – a signal of how high the stakes have become for companies whose core products rely on engagement-driven design. For engineers and product teams, the result could reshape how they design recommendation algorithms, notifications, and interface features for users under 18.

For now, the issue remains unsettled. Lawmakers are trying to impose guardrails on the very technologies that define modern social platforms, while companies are seeking clearer – and potentially narrower – rules on how those systems can be challenged. It is not yet clear how Congress will reconcile these competing aims.

As India searches for a homegrown contender in the global artificial intelligence race, billionaire Mukesh Ambani is positioning Reliance Industries as a national champion, rolling out AI services for phone calls, mobile apps, and connected homes.

At its annual shareholder meeting on Friday, the Mumbai-based conglomerate announced Jio Call Agent, an AI assistant that can join phone calls to transcribe conversations, generate summaries, and perform tasks such as booking cabs, ordering food, and making reservations. The service, which can be activated by saying “Hey Jio,” is expected to launch later this year for Jio’s more than 500 million users.

By embedding the service directly into its telecom network rather than offering it as a stand-alone app, Jio is betting AI assistance can become a native feature of phone calls. The approach could reduce consumers’ reliance on third-party call-assistant apps and give Reliance a powerful distribution advantage in an increasingly crowded AI market.

Reliance also unveiled an AI-powered version of its MyJio app that can perform tasks on behalf of users, from activating eSIMs to selecting roaming plans, through natural-language requests. The company further introduced TeleFrame, a home display that uses AI agents to proactively surface information and recommendations, such as weather alerts, schedules, and household reminders. The product appears to echo a broader industry push toward ambient AI assistants for the home, an area being explored by companies such as Amazon and Google.

The announcements mark the next phase of Reliance’s AI ambitions as India seeks to build domestic capabilities in a field largely dominated by U.S. and Chinese technology companies. The push follows the launch of Reliance Intelligence last year, through which the conglomerate aims to develop AI infrastructure and services for consumers, businesses, and governments, including applications that support 22 Indian languages.

“India should not be a mere consumer of AI created elsewhere. It must become a creator, adopter, and a global leader in AI,” Ambani, age 69, said.

Reliance has been ramping up its AI ambitions through partnerships with Google, Meta, and Nvidia. Earlier this year, the company announced plans to invest $110 billion in AI infrastructure as it seeks to establish itself as a major player in India’s emerging AI ecosystem.

At the shareholder meeting, Reliance also unveiled a suite of AI services for healthcare, education, agriculture, and small businesses. The products, branded JioHealthIQ, JioLearnIQ, JioKrishiIQ, and AI Vyapar, are designed to operate across multiple Indian languages and cater to local needs, the company said.

The shareholder meeting also brought a major development for investors awaiting Jio’s stock market debut. Ambani said Jio Platforms’ board had approved a draft prospectus for an initial public offering that would include a fresh issue of up to 270 million shares, according to a stock exchange filing.

The announcements also raise questions about how Reliance will handle user data as it expands AI services across phone calls, mobile apps, and connected homes. While the company said the services would operate with user consent, it did not answer questions about whether data generated through the products could be used to train AI models or shared with technology partners.

Reliance’s AI ambitions come as Indian companies remain heavily reliant on foreign AI models and cloud providers. Recent restrictions on access to some of Anthropic’s latest models have underscored that dependency, showing how decisions made overseas can affect startups and businesses building AI products in India — the kind of supply-chain risk that’s pushing Indian conglomerates toward building their own stack rather than renting someone else’s.

Last week, Reliance announced a collaboration with Meta to establish an AI data center in the western state of Gujarat, building on Meta’s earlier investment in Jio Platforms and a joint venture launched last year to develop AI solutions for enterprise customers in India and overseas markets.

Reliance is not alone in pursuing AI opportunities. Tata Consultancy Services, Infosys, and rival Adani Group have also expanded their AI initiatives and partnerships with global players, including Anthropic, Google, and OpenAI, as India’s largest corporations race to secure a leading role in the country’s AI future.

Nonetheless, for Reliance, the stakes are particularly high; it’s preparing Jio for a long-awaited stock market debut and needs new growth drivers, with the conglomerate’s shares down about 17% this year.

Just as last week was ending, the US government forced Anthropic to pull its two newest models, Fable 5 and Mythos 5, citing national security concerns after Amazon researchers allegedly found a way to bypass Fable 5’s guardrails. 

Cybersecurity researchers have since signed an open letter calling the move dangerous, and Anthropic itself noted the same jailbreaks exist in other models. So is this a genuine security concern, or just the latest chapter in a messy relationship between Anthropic and the Trump administration? 

On this episode of TechCrunch’s Equity podcast, hosts Anthony Ha, Sean O’Kane, and Rebecca Bellan unpack what the ban means for developers building on Anthropic’s platform and for anyone watching the IPO, why it might accidentally be good for the company, and more of the week’s headlines. 

Subscribe to Equity on YouTube, Apple Podcasts, Overcast, Spotify and all the casts. You also can follow Equity on X and Threads, at @EquityPod. 

Professional car thieves have leaned on a quiet radio trick for years to slip past keyless entry systems. Mark Rober, the former NASA engineer known for his glitter bomb videos and hands-on builds, wanted to see exactly how that trick works and whether regular people could defend against it. His latest experiment delivers a clear answer on both fronts.

Rober started by buying a customized relay attack device from a dark net seller accessed through Tor for $12,000 in Bitcoin. Rober believed the risk was worthwhile and put the expensive gadget through a series of preliminary tests after the source provided him with detailed instructions and a warning about self-destruct capabilities in case anyone became too inquisitive. This worked since it could unlock and even start a car, but it took some time and required periodic signal frequency modifications.

When you deconstruct the technology behind these devices, it becomes pretty straightforward. The majority of modern cars transmit a low-pitched radio signal every few seconds to determine whether the accompanying key fob is nearby. When the fob receives the signal and answers with the right code, the car recognizes that the owner is close enough to start the engine or unlock the doors. This is exploited by thieves who creep up on the vehicle and send a louder signal in the direction of the fob, which might be anywhere, such as inside a home or an office. The fob replies as if it is right next to the vehicle.

Rober was determined to make the same car-unlocking device faster and less expensive. He went to a local store, bought a cheap, basic baby monitor for only $12, and tore it up right away. The wireless components of the monitor are ideal for handling that kind of signal, so he tinkered with them to get them to pick up the car’s signal and then rebroadcast it at full blast just next to the fob. He spent less than $200 on his do-it-yourself version, which was a fraction of the price of a real one.

After that, Rober began testing his creation. He would move the antenna around and adjust the power levels in suburban areas until he could consistently unlock the car in ten seconds. After that, he advanced to real-world trials in a controlled setting. Additionally, he was able to obtain a CT scan of the original device without activating its self-destruct features, which greatly aided him in determining which components are truly essential and which may be replaced with less expensive baby monitor technology.

The clincher came when he took the device for a ride in a brand new 2026 Hyundai Sonata, courtesy of streamer JasonTheWeen. Rober got into the car and hotwired it during a Twitch live stream while Jason was busy gaming; since the entire process was being seen by a live audience, it was a slam dunk proof of concept. Later, as promised, Rober presented Jason with a spanking new Rivian.

Then Rober became a little more mischevious, stashing a Sonata with a dozen GPS trackers buried inside in a dangerous neighborhood with a reputation of snatch-and-grab auto thefts. He left it there for five days to see what would happen if someone decided to try their luck – and sure enough, they did. The tracker data revealed that after receiving a parking penalty, the automobile wound up in an impound yard, where a high-definition camera filmed a youngster driving it away.

Rober was first interested in seeing the hack in action, but he soon began to consider how to prevent it from happening again. He discovered that you can effectively stop a relay by simply placing the fob in a metal tin or wrapping it in aluminum foil; bam, the signal is blocked. Problem fixed. Although Rober discovered a few additional solutions to the problem, he also learned that some car manufacturers, such as Kia, are willing to send out free software updates to close the gap.

Microsoft has released a new Insider Preview update for the modern Windows 11 Media Player. However, the app is facing criticism after tests revealed it uses more memory and opens local video files more slowly than the classic 17-year-old Windows Media Player.

The update adds some useful fixes, including better captions, clearer codec errors, and improved file recognition. But the biggest complaints remain higher RAM usage and paid codec support for some common video formats. The update is not available to everyone yet. Media Player version 11.2605.14.0 has only arrived on Experimental Insider builds as part of Microsoft’s June 12 Insider Preview releases.

What’s new in Media Player?

The update brings several small but practical changes. Caption styling now follows Windows system caption settings, so users can adjust font size, color, and background from the operating system. Media Player also shows an indexing banner when it is scanning a fresh media library, which should make it clearer why some songs or videos are not showing up yet.

Microsoft has also improved file recognition to reduce playback errors, added clearer missing codec messages, blocked unnamed playlists, fixed a crash linked to play queue editing, and cleaned up some visual issues. These are useful fixes, especially for an app that ships as the default media player on Windows 11.

Why are users unhappy?

The problem is that these fixes do not address the biggest complaints. According to Windows Latest, the modern Media Player used around 377MB of RAM while idle, compared with about 103.4MB for the legacy Windows Media Player. The newer app also took longer to open a local video file in testing.

For a modern piece of software, this is a bad look. Opening and playing a local video should be one of the easiest things a media player does. If Microsoft’s newer app is slower at that than the version that shipped with Windows 7 nearly 17 years ago, something has clearly gone wrong.

The codec situation is another frustration. HEVC, also known as H.265, is now common on phones, including iPhones and many Android devices. But Windows users may need Microsoft’s paid HEVC Video Extensions app from the Store to play those files in Media Player. The extension costs $0.99.

There is some context here. HEVC is tied to patent licensing, and Microsoft has to account for royalties. Even so, the user experience is not great. Someone can shoot a video on a modern phone, move it to a Windows machine, and then be asked to pay extra just to play it in Microsoft’s own media app. Fortunately, Windows users are not stuck with that setup. Free alternatives like VLC Media Player and MPV can play HEVC videos without requiring Microsoft’s paid codec extension.

Windows 11 version 24H2 has also removed built-in AC-3 support, which can affect Dolby Digital audio playback. For now, the update shows Microsoft is improving Media Player, but the app needs to be faster, lighter, and less dependent on paid codec add-ons to win users over.