Most Polymarket Users Lose Money, While Top 1% Claim 76.5% of Gains, Study Finds

In Polymarket’s prediction market, “most people end up losing money,” reports the Washington Post — typically a few bucks.

“Since Polymarket launched in 2022, a few thousand people have lost the bulk of the money… and an even smaller group — .05 percent of users — has gone home with most of the overall profits, according to a new analysis from finance researcher Pat Akey and colleagues.”

A lot of users aren’t that good at predicting the future. They’re losing money at roughly the same rate as online gamblers betting on sports and other real-life events at traditional sportsbooks, according to the U.K. gambling regulator’s analysis of 2024 data. On Polymarket, the odds of making a profit are slightly higher on weather and tech markets — and a little lower on sports…

On Polymarket, just 1,200 people took more than half the profits — $591 million, or more than $100,000 each. [“The top 1% of users capture 76.5% of all trading gains,” the researchers write.] When you dabble in prediction markets, you’re competing against these sophisticated players who consistently win. Most of those 1,200 big winners didn’t place just a few smart bets. They appear to be pros making thousands of trades, mostly in the past year and a half, that were probably automated. One user made $3 million since January on more than a million trades about the Oscars, according to TRM Labs…

The most profitable participants are also just good at picking what to bet on, Akey found, winning so often it was statistically unlikely to be dumb luck. They had some sort of edge — expertise, deep research or, perhaps, inside knowledge.
“Our results suggest that the informational benefits of prediction markets come at a cost to unsophisticated participants,” the researchers conclude.