OpenAI could go from AI pioneer to AI’s BlackBerry, says Forrester

As OpenAI courts investors and chases enterprise customers, Forrester says today’s AI leader could become tomorrow’s cautionary tale

OpenAI may be headed for Wall Street, but one analyst firm is already warning enterprise customers not to get too attached.

In a note published alongside OpenAI’s confidential IPO filing, Forrester urged companies to keep their AI options open, arguing that today’s market leader could easily become tomorrow’s cautionary tale.

“Don’t lock into long-term contracts; keep your architectures flexible,” the firm advised. “In fact, OpenAI could become AI’s BlackBerry FIFO (First In, First Out). The company that defines a category is often the one most painfully displaced by it.”

The caution comes as OpenAI takes its first formal step toward a public listing. Alongside its confidential SEC filing, the company published a roadmap built around three ambitions: AI systems that can accelerate research, AI that boosts economic growth, and eventually a personal AGI assistant for everyone. Forrester was more interested in a fourth question: what happens if OpenAI doesn’t stay on top?

The firm argues that OpenAI faces what it calls a “trifecta” of challenges: persuade consumers to use its agents instead of rivals’, convince enterprises to build around its technology, and stay ahead in the race toward AGI.

The enterprise battle may prove the most lucrative. “Whoever automates the dull, expensive middle of a company’s operations first becomes the system of record everyone else has to rip out — and almost no one does,” Forrester said. 

In other words, the first company to get AI agents woven into day-to-day business processes stands a decent chance of becoming yet another piece of software that everyone complains about, but nobody can remove.

However, Forrester’s advice is that, rather than standardizing on a single provider, enterprises should “anchor to the capability you need — not the brand that got there first — and keep your switching costs low.”

The warning also comes as OpenAI reportedly weighs cutting prices to fend off growing competition from rivals, including Anthropic. If the AI market is heading for a price war, enterprises may want to think twice before chaining themselves to a single supplier.

Forrester also notes that a public listing could provide customers with something they currently lack: visibility into OpenAI’s finances. Once public, the company would be required to disclose far more information about the cost of training and operating its models, giving enterprise buyers a clearer picture of the economics behind the AI systems they increasingly depend on.

For now, OpenAI remains the company that helped define the generative AI era. Whether it becomes the next Google, the next Microsoft, or AI’s answer to BlackBerry is a question investors will soon be paying very close attention to.  ®