Prediction market users have made — and profited from — big bets around the bombing of Iran by the U.S. and Israeli military.

On Polymarket, $529 million was traded on contracts tied to the timing of the attack, according to Bloomberg. An analysis by analytics firm Bubblemaps SA found that six newly-created accounts made a profit of $1 million by correctly betting that the U.S. would strike Iran by February 28 — behavior that could indicate insider trading.

The bets might merely reflect broader speculation about U.S. intentions in Iran, but Bubblemaps CEO Nicolas Vaiman said the circulation of information “involving war or conflict,” coupled with Polymarket’s anonymity, “can create incentives for informed participants to act early.”

Back in January, analytics firm Polysights also noted an apparent spike in bets around the likelihood that Iran’s now-deceased Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei would no longer hold that role by the end of March.

Responding to concerns that such bets might essentially place a financial incentive on assassination, Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour said, “We don’t list markets directly tied to death. When there are markets where potential outcomes involve death, we design the rules to prevent people from profiting from death.” He added that Kalshi would reimburse all fees from these bets.

• AMD expands aggressively into virtualized 5G infrastructure and edge deployments
• AMD Sorano now delivers 84 cores for demanding telecom network workloads
• Improved LDPC decoding efficiency directly affects overall network capacity scaling

AMD has introduced its latest 8005-series Epyc processors, codenamed Sorano, with a clear focus on telecom and edge infrastructure.

The new chips raise core counts to as many as 84 Zen 5 cores, marking a notable jump from the earlier Siena generation.

Fish are popular animals to keep as pets, and for good reason. They’re relatively low maintenance, relaxing to watch, and have a high aesthetic appeal. But for all their upsides, they aren’t quite as companionable as a dog or a cat. Although some fish can do limited walking or flying, these aren’t generally kept as pets and would still need considerable help navigating the terrestrial world. To that end, [Everything is Hacked] built a fish tank that allows his fish to move around on their own. We presume he’s heard the old joke about two fish in a tank. One says, “Do you know how to drive this thing?”

The first prototype of this “fish tank” is actually built on a tracked vehicle with differential steering, on which the fish tank would sit. But after building a basic, driveable machine, the realities of fish ownership set in. The fish with the smallest tank needs is a betta fish, but even that sort of fish needs much more space than would easily fit on a robotics platform. So [Everything is Hacked] set up a complete ecosystem for his new pet, making the passenger vehicle a secondary tank.

The new fish’s name is [Carrot], named after the carrots that [Everything is Hacked] used to test the computer vision system that would track the fish’s movements and use them to control the mobile fish tank. There was some configuration needed to ensure that when this feisty fish swam in circles, the tank didn’t spin around uncontrollably, but eventually he was able to get it working in an “arena” where [Carrot] could drive towards some favorite items he might like to interact with. Mostly, though, he drove his tank to investigate the other fish in the area.

The ultimate goal was for [Everything is Hacked] to take his fish on a walk, though, so he set about training [Carrot] to respond to visual cues and swim towards them. In theory, this would have allowed him to be followed by his fish tank, but a test at a local grocery did not go as smoothly as hoped. Still, it’s an interesting project that pushes the boundaries of pet ownership much like other fish-driving projects we’ve seen.

The analysis company’s Commodities at Sea monitoring also recorded outbound oil and product flows averaging about 20.4 million barrels per day in February to date, slightly below January levels—evidence that geopolitical tension alone can slow shipments before any physical disruption occurs.

“Hormuz risk is not only about closure but also fleet productivity. If Iran escalates by seizing tankers or using drones to threaten commercial traffic, voyage times and possibly costs for Middle East oil exports would further increase,” S&P Global CERA analysts said.

Multiple shipping companies have already reported that they are avoiding the Strait of Hormuz and expect delays and rescheduling of shipments.

What Would Closing the Strait Mean?

There is no alternative export system at comparable scale. Saudi Arabia and the UAE operate bypass pipelines, but these cover only a portion of Gulf flows, while Iraq, Kuwait, and Qatar lack meaningful alternatives.

If the strait formally closed, most oil exports from the Gulf would be cut off from the world almost immediately. Even if Saudi Arabia and the UAE pushed their alternative pipelines to the limit, analysts say about two-thirds of Gulf exports would still be stuck.

LNG markets would also be hit. Qatar, the world’s largest exporter of liquefied natural gas—a super-cooled form of natural gas shipped by tanker—depends almost entirely on the Strait of Hormuz to export its fuel.

If the route were blocked, Asian buyers could lose their key suppliers within days. Asian economies such as Japan, South Korea, China, and India depend heavily on imported LNG to generate electricity.

Getting oil from elsewhere, like the Atlantic, would mean longer shipping times and higher costs, potentially pushing prices even higher.

How It Could Affect Consumers

Historical modeling suggests that sudden loss of Gulf supply could push oil prices sharply higher.

If that happens, the effects would likely reach global consumers quickly: higher gas prices, more expensive airline tickets, and rising transport costs that feed into the price of food and goods.

Financial markets typically react even before physical shortages appear, with oil futures rising, transport-sector equities weakening, and currencies of major energy exporters strengthening as traders price in the risk of disruption.

Strategic petroleum reserves could moderate the shock, but releases take time and cannot fully substitute for Gulf crude grades.

Inside the Gulf, stopping exports would quickly strain government finances. Countries such as Iraq, Kuwait, and Qatar rely heavily on oil revenues to fund public spending. If shipments halted, storage facilities could fill rapidly, forcing producers to cut output and lose income.

Shipping effects would extend beyond oil. Tanker rerouting, insurance repricing, and naval risk zones tend to raise freight rates across bulk commodities and container shipping, impacting worldwide logistics.

This story originally appeared on WIRED Middle East.

On a warm fall afternoon at Walt Disney Studios in Burbank, California, a gentle breeze blows through the meticulously landscaped trees lining the walkways. A ray of sunshine hits the famed Team Disney building, where 19-foot-tall stone carvings of the seven dwarfs of Snow White fame hold up the roof.

The renowned sculptural architecture is a nod to the film that helped build the Disney empire. And just across the lot, inside Disney’s Main Street Cinema, the entertainment giant is exploring ways to preserve that legacy with the help of technology, such as artificial intelligence. Four startups are gathered in the theater to present their technology to a crowd of executives and media attendees. One startup, Animaj, is demonstrating how it uses AI to accelerate the animating process.

Brightly colored, blobby figures prance and bound across a wide screen in front of me, characters from a children’s YouTube series called Pocoyo. Animaj — selected by Disney as one of its 2025 cohort of startups to finance, platform and mentor via the Disney Accelerator Program — is now using human artists and AI to produce these shorts, allowing it to bring the series to screens quickly.

“Thanks to this tool, it takes less than five weeks to produce a 5-minute-long episode, whereas it used to take five months,” Animaj CEO and co-founder Sixte de Vauplane tells me, speaking in front of the company’s demo space after the presentation.

That dramatic acceleration of a traditionally painstaking process flows directly from the rapid advances in generative AI in the past several years, and those advances aren’t just for professionals: AI-powered video-generating tools surged into the mainstream in 2025. Google’s Veo 3 and OpenAI’s Sora 2 now allow anyone to create a cartoon animation from the comfort of their phone, without any sketching experience or even artistic inclination required. The use of generative AI is something that Hollywood is fighting to keep at bay, lest it take jobs away from human artists.

But Animaj says that its technology doesn’t replace animators. It simply makes their jobs less tedious. An animator will still be sketching out each of the main poses, and then AI will be used to fill in all the in-between movements of the character that move them from A to Z. And even then, the company says, an animator is in control of tweaking those AI-generated movements.

It’s an interesting perspective when I think about the building right across from me, which houses hundreds of Disney animators. Will they see AI the same way? Disney confirmed it will soon introduce its partnership with Animaj, with the two companies in discussions around how to potentially use this AI system in animation across Disney Branded Television and Disney Television Studios.

“The plan is to announce something in the coming months,” says David Min, vice president of Disney Innovation.

Keeping artists centered with AI tools

Animators will control the AI feature as another part of their digital toolkit, according to de Vauplane. The storyboarding process will remain the same as it is with more traditional computer-generated imagery, he says. The AI tool will just “bring the idea to life much faster.”

“The artist is in control. For us, it’s super important because we know that AI can be seen as a threat for the artist,” de Vauplane says. “We want to show that there is another way to use AI in a very ethical way.”

I reached out to the Animation Guild for comment and am still awaiting a response. But late last year, after four months of bargaining, the union representing animators was unable to include many AI safety provisions in its contract. They would not be able to avoid using AI tools if required by a job, for instance, or to opt out of having their work used to train those AI tools.

But artistic expression has a long history of evolving with technology.

Animators moved on from watercolor hand sketches — used to animate Snow White and the Seven Dwarfs and Sleeping Beauty in the 1930s and 1950s, respectively — to CGI for movies like The Little Mermaid and Aladdin in the 1980s and 1990s. It transitioned into 3D CGI with the release of Tangled and Frozen in the 2010s. Each technological innovation has sped up the animation process. So is AI simply another tool in the modern CGI toolkit, especially if it preserves the key elements of an animator’s workflow?

To maintain the “creator-first approach” that centers human artists — a hallmark of last century’s Walt and Roy Disney partnership — Min says that Disney looked into “pretty much all of the AI companies.”

“We looked at thousands of companies, all big and small, and what Animaj does well is that the artist is really driving the process,” he says, adding that you don’t really see this in video-generating AI apps like Sora and Veo, which read your text prompts and spit out (usually nonsensical) videos. “This is the artist drawing the key frames from A to Z, and then allowing things to be filled in in between. That’s why we selected Animaj.”

Expediting the animation process

Animaj’s AI tool is used to expedite the animation process. Trained only on images from the show in question, and working within the parameters of an animator’s real-time sketches, the AI tool predicts the character’s next moves — and the animator corrects it when it goes awry. This can save a lot of time: hours, weeks, months, depending on the type of animation and show being worked on.

Min says it takes much longer to make an animated series than many people understand.

“It can be like a year before you can even get a pilot of something to test out. With Animaj, they can do it in 30% of the time,” Min says. We’re standing in front of Disney’s Stage 1 building, amid a throng of Disney cast members, startup reps and other tech execs and enthusiasts. “The future of animation is a big, broad statement, but definitely this is where the future of animation is going and trending.”

Like so many media companies in the age of streaming, Disney needs to produce high-quality content at a faster rate to keep up with audience demand. Animaj also uses AI to collect data to understand what themes are trending or resonating with online audiences, and then animate episodes quickly to meet those interests while they’re current and popular.

Because its animation process moves so rapidly, Min says, Animaj can also test new ideas much faster.

“Not only do they have the content production AI to actually help build the animated shorts faster,” Min says, “but then they’re using AI to also read the analytics on what’s going on with the viewing of the video that can then help inform the storytelling as well.”

How does AI animation work?

Outside, sitting under a tree in the California sunshine, a Pocoyo animator sketches a character on a screen with a 3D model popping up on a screen beside it. I watch as he uses a stylus to make slight adjustments to arm and leg movements generated by the AI.

Advertisement

“Our proprietary animation tool allows the artist, Joe sitting here, to draw a sketch and to control the animation just based on the sketch,” says Antoine Lhermitte, Animaj’s chief technology officer, as we watch the artist work. It’s a big time-saver, he adds.

Blog posts by Animaj detail how it uses AI to bring sketches to animated life, while still retaining the unique art style of an animation. The company used four seasons of Pocoyo to build a database of more than 300,000 poses, using both sketches and their corresponding 3D poses for each character that the AI model could learn from. Artists were also asked to produce more sketches of the characters to be used in the next season.

Artists can input into a 3D pose-modeling program various positions of the character, for instance, standing and then sitting. The AI model would then fill in the blanks of what gets the character from standing to sitting position, something Animaj calls “motion in-betweening.”

Working with the AI model, the artist makes corrections to any of the AI-generated animations, like shifting an arm or a leg to where it should be. The time savings with not having to hand-draw every single pose that comes with a character’s actions means animators can “concentrate more on refining the style and flow of scenes rather than starting from scratch with each new pose,” Animaj says.

As a result, the artists are freed up from repetitive tasks to spend more time on the creative side. At the same time, it’s enabling those artists to use an AI tool that is matched up with their working style, and not one producing text prompt-based AI slop, like all those horrific animations invading YouTube or social media, where the characters’ features change in every frame or have three tails and 17 fingers.

“We know how frustrating it can be when you use third-party AI models and you prompt something, it creates something so different than what you have in mind,” de Vauplane says. “Here, it creates something, generates something you can easily tweak…something which is fully consistent with the brand DNA.”

Preserving that Disney DNA is critical as the entertainment giant seeks to uphold its 100-year legacy while keeping pace with modern technology. As the seven dwarfs sang in the 1937 classic Snow White, which established Disney as an animation powerhouse, “Heigh ho, heigh ho, it’s off to work we go.” For tomorrow’s animators, it’s off to work with the help of AI.

More recently, Iran has been a regular adversary in cyberspace—and while it hasn’t demonstrated quite the acuity of Russia or China, Iran is “good at finding ways to maximize the impact of their capabilities,” says Jeff Greene, the former executive assistant director of cybersecurity at CISA. Iran, in particular, famously was responsible for a series of distributed-denial-of-service attacks on Wall Street institutions that worried financial markets, and its 2012 attack on Saudi Aramco and Qatar’s Rasgas marked some of the earliest destructive infrastructure cyberattacks.

Today, surely, Iran is weighing which of these tools, networks, and operatives it might press into a response—and where, exactly, that response might come. Given its history of terror campaigns and cyberattacks, there’s no reason to think that Iran’s retaliatory options are limited to missiles alone—or even to the Middle East at all.

Which leads to the biggest known unknown of all:

5. How does this end? There’s an apocryphal story about a 1970s conversation between Henry Kissinger and a Chinese leader—it’s told variously as either Mao-Tse Tung or Zhou Enlai. Asked about the legacy of the French revolution, the Chinese leader quipped, “Too soon to tell.” The story almost surely didn’t happen, but it’s useful in speaking to a larger truth particularly in societies as old as the 2,500-year-old Persian empire: History has a long tail.

As much as Trump (and the world) might hope that democracy breaks out in Iran this spring, the CIA’s official assessment in February was that if Khamenei was killed, he would be likely replaced with hardline figures from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. And indeed, the fact that Iran’s retaliatory strikes against other targets in the Middle East continued throughout Saturday, even after the death of many senior regime officials—including, purportedly, the defense minister—belied the hope that the government was close to collapse.

The post-World War II history of Iran has surely hinged on three moments and its intersections with American foreign policy—the 1953 CIA coup, the 1979 revolution that removed the shah, and now the 2026 US attacks that have killed its supreme leader. In his recent bestselling book King of Kings, on the fall of the shah, longtime foreign correspondent Scott Anderson writes of 1979, “If one were to make a list of that small handful of revolutions that spurred change on a truly global scale in the modern era, that caused a paradigm shift in the way the world works, to the American, French, and Russian Revolutions might be added the Iranian.”

It is hard not to think today that we are living through a moment equally important in ways that we cannot yet fathom or imagine—and that we should be especially wary of any premature celebration or declarations of success given just how far-reaching Iran’s past turmoils have been.

Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has repeatedly bragged about how he sees the military and Trump administration’s foreign policy as sending a message to America’s adversaries: “F-A-F-O,” playing off the vulgar colloquialism. Now, though, it’s the US doing the “F-A” portion in the skies over Iran—and the long arc of Iran’s history tells us that we’re a long, long way from the “F-O” part where we understand the consequences.

Let us know what you think about this article. Submit a letter to the editor at mail@wired.com.