Viral Doomsday Report Lays Bare Wall Street’s Deep Anxiety About AI Future

A 7,000-word “doomsday” thought experiment from Citrini Research helped trigger an 800-point drop in the Dow, “painting a dark portrait of a future in which technological change inspires a race to the bottom in white-collar knowledge work,” reports the Wall Street Journal. From the report: Concerns of hyperscalers overspending are out. Worries of software-industry disruption don’t go far enough. The “global intelligence crisis” is about to hit. The new, broader question: What if AI is so bullish for the economy that it is actually bearish? “For the entirety of modern economic history, human intelligence has been the scarce input,” Citrini wrote in a post it described as a scenario dated June 2028, not a prediction. “We are now experiencing the unwind of that premium.”

Many of Monday’s moves roughly aligned with the situation outlined by Citrini, in which fast-advancing AI tools allow spending cuts across industries, sparking mass white-collar unemployment and in turn leading to financial contagion. Software firms DataDog, CrowdStrike and Zscaler each plunged more than 9%. International Business Machines’ 13% decline was its worst one-day performance since 2000. American Express, KKR and Blackstone — all name-checked by Citrini — tumbled. That anxiety, coupled with renewed uncertainty about trade policy from Washington, weighed down major indexes Monday. The Dow Jones Industrial Average led declines, falling 1.7%, or 822 points. The S&P 500 shed 1%, while the Nasdaq composite retreated 1.1%.

[…] Monday’s market swings extended a run of AI-linked volatility. A small research outfit that has garnered a huge Substack following for macro and thematic stock research, Citrini said in its new post that software firms, payment processors and other companies formed “one long daisy chain of correlated bets on white-collar productivity growth” that AI is poised to disrupt. […] Shares in DoorDash also veered 6.6% lower Monday after Citrini’s Substack note called the delivery app a “poster child” for how new tools would upend companies that monetize interpersonal friction. In the research firm’s scenario, AI agents would help both drivers and customers navigate food deliveries at much lower costs.