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BTC trapped in tight range as growing open interest hints at defensive bets: Crypto Markets Today

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BTC trapped in tight range as growing open interest hints at defensive bets: Crypto Markets Today

Bitcoin traded recently around $70,100, down 0.1% since midnight UTC.

The largest cryptocurrency has been trapped in a tight trading range between $71,700 and $69,000 for the past 48 hours as volatility begins to wane despite continued conflict in the Middle East.

Oil rose back toward $100 per barrel on Thursday after a sixth ship was reportedly attacked by Iran on the Strait of Hormuz, adding to concerns about global energy supply.

The crypto market, however, remains relatively unperturbed; Hyperliquid’s HYPE token continued its ascent toward $40, adding 2.5% since midnight while MORPHO, ETHFI, and XMR all posted gains.

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U.S. stock futures continued to show weakness with the Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 index futures both losing around 0.6% overnight. The Dollar Index (DXY) moved back toward 100 after Wednesday’s CPI figures, putting a stop to any potential rate cuts.

Derivatives positioning

  • Crypto futures open interest (OI) has increased by 2% to $102 billion in the past 24 hours.
  • OI in bitcoin and ether rose by 2% and 4%, respectively, while annualized perpetual funding rates and cumulative volume delta (CVD) have remained flat to negative. This suggests that the recent build-up in open interest is being driven more by defensive, bearish positioning than by aggressive long-side bets.
  • Decentralized exchange Hyperliquid’s HYPE token has gained 9% in 24 hours, extending the recent bull run. The rally, however, has yet to galvanize demand for leveraged bets, as evidenced by futures OI, which remains steady near multimonth lows of about 40 million HYPE.
  • Activity in tether gold (XAUT) continues to cool, with futures OI slipping to 93.50 XAUT, the lowest since Feb. 28, and down notably from the March 2 high of 149.72K XAUT. This shows that gold-linked assets are slowly falling out of favor as the rally in spot gold stalls.
  • Bitcoin and ether’s 30-day implied volatility indices, BVIV and EVIV, remain steady despite a renewed overnight rally in oil and a decline in U.S. stock futures.
  • The steadfastness is a sign traders are not yet seeing a meaningful shift in forward-looking risk or cross‑asset contagion for major cryptocurrencies.
  • On Deribit, bitcoin and ether put options, which offer protection against a market decline, continue to trade at a premium to call options. There is notable interest in the $20,000 put option, a bet that BTC’s spot price will plunge to below that level.

Token talk

  • The altcoin market continues to show resilience despite a risk-off environment in global markets.
  • Decentralized finance (DeFi) token SKY posted a 7.6% gain over the past 24 hours while AI-focused bittensor (TAO) is up by around 4.5%.
  • One token that has failed to keep tabs with its peers has been midnight (NIGHT), the privacy token set up by Cardano founder Charles Hoskinson. NIGHT is currently trading at $0.046, having dropped 10% in the past 24 hours after Tuesday’s listing on Binance gave holders an off-ramp to sell.
  • The altcoin-heavy CoinDesk 80 (CD80) Index was the best-performing benchmark over the past 24 hours, adding 2.5% while the bitcoin-heavy CoinDesk 5 (CD5) is up by only 0.9%.
  • The altcoin market’s next move depends on whether bitcoin can break out of the current range with a move above $74,000, a breakout on convincing volume followed by a consolidation would lead to rotation into more speculative altcoins.

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Chainlink price compresses beneath Fibonacci resistance, downside risk

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Chainlink price compresses beneath Fibonacci resistance, downside risk grows - 1

Chainlink price is stalling below a major Fibonacci resistance zone near $9.17 as momentum weakens.The probability of a corrective rotation toward lower support increases.

Summary

  • Key Resistance: $9.17 aligns with the 0.618 Fibonacci, VWAP, and value area high.
  • Weak Momentum: The recent rally occurred on low volume, increasing rejection risk.
  • Support Target: Potential rotation toward the $8.24 confluence support zone.

Chainlink (LINK) has entered a technically significant zone as price action compresses beneath a cluster of resistance levels around $9.17. The asset recently attempted to extend its upward momentum but has begun to stall as it approaches a confluence of technical barriers.

With several resistance indicators aligning in the same region and trading volume declining during the recent move higher, the market may be preparing for a temporary pullback before any sustained continuation toward higher resistance.

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Chainlink price key technical points

  • Major Resistance Zone: $9.17 aligns with the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement, VWAP, and value area high.
  • Low-Volume Rally: Weak participation increases the probability of a rejection.
  • Downside Target: Potential rotation toward the $8.24 support level.
Chainlink price compresses beneath Fibonacci resistance, downside risk grows - 1
LINKUSDT (4H) Chart, Source: TradingView

Chainlink’s current price action is approaching a technically important resistance cluster situated around $9.17. This level represents the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement of the recent swing structure, a zone that frequently acts as a decisive turning point in market trends. The presence of the value area high in this region adds additional significance, as it represents an area where a large portion of previous trading activity has occurred. When price revisits these zones, the market often reacts strongly as liquidity is redistributed.

Adding further weight to this resistance zone is the presence of the volume-weighted average price (VWAP), which overlays the same region. VWAP is widely monitored by both institutional and retail traders as a benchmark for fair value. When price trades beneath the VWAP while simultaneously encountering Fibonacci resistance and a value area boundary, the probability of rejection increases significantly.

Despite the recent push higher, the rally toward this resistance has occurred on relatively low trading volume. This is an important factor in technical analysis because sustainable breakouts typically require expanding volume to confirm strong market participation. When price approaches major resistance levels without strong volume support, it often signals that buyers may be losing momentum.

As a result, the current price compression beneath resistance could lead to a rotational move toward lower support before the market attempts another breakout. In range-bound market structures, price frequently oscillates between key liquidity zones as traders reposition their orders. The lack of strong bullish volume suggests that sellers may soon regain control near the $9.17 region.

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Meanwhile, developments within the ecosystem continue to expand Chainlink’s broader utility, with the network recently enabling Coinbase’s cbBTC bridging to Monad, unlocking more than $5 billion in Bitcoin-backed liquidity for decentralized finance applications.

If a rejection occurs, the next major technical support level sits near $8.24. This area forms a strong confluence zone where several technical indicators align. Notably, the value area low is positioned close to this region, marking a historical liquidity zone where buyers have previously stepped in to defend price.

Additionally, the lower Fibonacci support derived from the recent swing structure aligns closely with this level. When multiple technical indicators converge at a single price zone, it often creates a strong support region where price may stabilize or bounce.

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Because of this confluence, the $8.24 level could act as the next liquidity magnet for price action if Chainlink begins to rotate lower from the current resistance. A move toward this level would also represent a natural retracement within the broader trading structure rather than a complete breakdown in market sentiment.

Such rotational movements are common in consolidation phases where assets oscillate between support and resistance before establishing a clearer directional trend. The current compression beneath resistance suggests that the market is still searching for liquidity before determining the next decisive move.

What to expect in the coming price action

As long as Chainlink remains below the $9.17 resistance zone, the probability favors a rejection and rotational move toward the $8.24 support region. A break above resistance with strong volume would invalidate the bearish scenario and open the path toward the higher timeframe resistance near $9.72.

Until that occurs, the market structure suggests that downside risk remains elevated within the current trading range.

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Whale opens 20x oil short on Hyperliquid with 5.6M USDC at risk

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Whale opens 20x oil short on Hyperliquid with 5.6M USDC at risk

A whale has used 5.6M USDC on Hyperliquid to take a 20x leveraged oil short near $96, effectively betting that Iran‑driven crude prices will mean‑revert and ease macro pressure on BTC.

Summary

  • On‑chain data shows a single whale address depositing 5.6M USDC to Hyperliquid, then using the entire balance to short crude oil with 20x leverage, setting liquidation near $147.94 per barrel.
  • The entry coincides with WTI April futures spiking over 10% above $96 and Shanghai SC crude jumping 7% on Iran conflict risk, turning the trade into a macro call that current prices overshoot fundamentals.
  • For Bitcoin and broader crypto, the position is a sentiment gauge: if oil rolls over and the short pays, it implies softer inflation and rates, easing pressure on high‑beta assets and reinforcing BTC’s “macro hedge” narrative.

A large whale has bet aggressively against surging oil prices on Hyperliquid (HYPE), opening a 20x leveraged short worth 5.6 million USDC with a liquidation level near 148 dollars per barrel, according to on-chain monitoring data.

Whale piles into 20x oil short on Hyperliquid

Lookonchain data shows that over the past two hours, a single whale address deposited 5.6 million USDC onto derivatives venue Hyperliquid and used the entire balance to short oil with 20x leverage. At that leverage, the position’s liquidation price sits at 147.94 dollars per barrel, implying the trader is willing to tolerate a further violent squeeze in crude but is ultimately positioning for mean reversion after this week’s Iran‑driven spike.

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The timing aligns with WTI April futures ripping more than 10% intraday and breaking above 96 dollars, while Shanghai’s SC crude contract climbed over 7%, as war risk and supply fears pushed energy markets toward triple‑digit crude. Against that backdrop, the whale’s short is effectively a macro punt that current oil prices overshoot fundamentals and that either de‑escalation, policy intervention, or demand destruction will pull the curve back down.

Signal for crypto macro traders

Because the trade is funded entirely in USDC and executed on a crypto-native derivatives platform, it offers a rare, transparent look at how large on-chain participants are expressing views on traditional commodity risk. Rather than simply rotating between BTC and stablecoins, this address is using crypto infrastructure to take a leveraged stance in one of the key variables driving the entire macro and risk‑asset complex.

For Bitcoin and the broader digital asset market, the position matters as a sentiment gauge. If oil does roll over and the short pays, it would support a softer inflation and rate path than the current tape implies, easing pressure on high‑beta assets and potentially reinforcing the emerging narrative of BTC as a relative winner versus gold and U.S. equities in a volatility‑heavy regime.

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Strong Investor Demand Meets Weak Bitcoin Futures as Price Slumps

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Strong Investor Demand Meets Weak Bitcoin Futures as Price Slumps

Bitcoin (BTC) failed to break beyond $71,000 on Thursday, partially driven by the decline in the US stock market, with BTC funding rates dropping deeper into negative territory.

Key takeaways:

  • Bitcoin bears show high conviction as funding rates drop, but steady institutional buying keeps sellers in check.

  • Gold and government bond yields are rising, making it harder for Bitcoin to compete as a top-tier store of value.

Bitcoin futures imply moderate market stress

Traders fear that a prolonged war in Iran could cause havoc in the energy markets, negatively impacting the already weakened global economic prospects.

Bitcoin’s perpetual futures displayed signs of moderate stress, signaling a potential $66,000 retest. However, institutional inflows show increased demand, reducing the odds of a major Bitcoin price correction.

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Bitcoin perpetual futures annualized funding rate. Source: Laevitas.ch

The Bitcoin perpetual futures annualized funding rate dropped to -7% on Thursday, meaning shorts (sellers) were the ones paying to keep their positions open.

The growing conviction from bears is concerning, but the lack of demand from longs (buyers) should come as no surprise, given that Bitcoin is 45% below its all-time high.

Bitcoin’s derivatives remain muted

The tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 index traded merely 6% below its all-time high on Thursday. Even the US-listed small capitalization Russell 2000 Index stood 9% from its highest mark ever.

Hence, the worsening economic conditions or fear of contagion due to logistics issues in the Middle East can hardly be used to justify Bitcoin’s sluggishness.

The latest US jobless data released on Thursday revealed 1.85 million continuing claims in the week ended on Feb. 28, slightly above consensus, according to Yahoo Finance.

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US President Donald Trump vowed to “finish the job” in Iran, a war that further weakens the government’s fiscal debt conditions and does not help labor market prospects.

Bitcoin 2-month futures annualized premium (basis rate). Source: Laevitas.ch

The Bitcoin monthly futures premium relative to regular spot markets has stood below the neutral 5% threshold for the past couple of weeks. But despite being far from bullish, there is no evidence that Bitcoin derivatives presently signal continued stress.

This lack of interest is a reflection of Bitcoin’s failure to rally despite the anticipation of monetary expansion.

Rising institutional demand may push BTC above $75,000

Gold strength above $5,100 undermines Bitcoin’s store of value premise, especially as yields on US bonds rose sharply in March, meaning traders are demanding higher returns to hold those instruments.

US 5-year Treasury yield (left) vs. gold/USD (right). Source: TradingView

Yields on the 5-year US Treasuries jumped to 3.80% on Thursday after dipping below 3.50% in late February. Hence, investors exited fixed-income investments.

Related: Bitcoin catching up to gold hints at an ‘opportunity within risk’

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The US Federal Reserve is in a tough spot since lowering interest rates is needed to boost the job market and reduce risks in credit markets. But rising oil prices create sustained upward pressure on inflation.

Presently, Bitcoin’s hard-coded and transparent monetary policy is not being valued as a safe haven, but this could change as institutional demand picks up.

Additionally, a single Bitcoin derivatives metric (funding rates) should not be interpreted as a driver for a sharp price correction.

Particularly, amid a sequence of Bitcoin spot exchange-traded fund (ETF) net inflows and Strategy (MSTR US) yield products, resulting in accelerated Bitcoin accumulation. Sellers below $75,000 will eventually run out of coins, paving the way for a sustained bull run.

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As Cointelegraph reported, Bitcoin bulls will likely need to wait until after March for a chance to break the $78,000 resistance