As the USS Abraham Lincoln carrier strike group steams through the Arabian Sea, military planners are confronting a low-tech challenge with potentially high stakes: waves of inexpensive Iranian drones that could overwhelm billion-dollar defenses through sheer numbers.
USS Abraham Lincoln (CVN-72) underway in the Atlantic Ocean on 30 January 2019
Iran has invested heavily in its Shahed-series “kamikaze” drones, small unmanned aircraft that cost as little as $20,000 to $35,000 apiece yet carry enough explosives to damage ships or aircraft. Defense analysts say Tehran’s strategy of launching hundreds or even thousands at once — a “saturation attack” — poses a credible threat to high-value targets like U.S. supercarriers, even if sinking one outright remains improbable.
The debate has intensified in recent months amid escalating tensions. In February, an F-35C fighter jet launched from the Abraham Lincoln shot down an Iranian Shahed-139 drone that approached the carrier “aggressively” in the Arabian Sea, U.S. Central Command said. Iran later claimed its naval drones struck the Lincoln, forcing it to withdraw — assertions Washington dismissed as false while confirming U.S. strikes on Iranian assets, including the drone-carrying vessel Shahid Bagheri.
Iran’s drone fleet forms the core of its asymmetric naval doctrine, designed to counter America’s conventional superiority in the Persian Gulf and Strait of Hormuz. The Shahed-136, the most widely known model, has a range of roughly 1,000 miles, a top speed of about 114 mph and a warhead of 66 to 123 pounds. Newer variants, including jet-powered Shahed-238 models, are faster and harder to intercept. Iran can produce them rapidly in underground facilities using commercial components, allowing mass deployment at a fraction of the cost of Western munitions.
Cameron Chell, CEO of Canadian drone manufacturer Draganfly, warned in January that Iran’s low-cost unmanned systems enable “saturation attacks” against vessels like the Abraham Lincoln. “If hundreds are launched in a short period of time, some are almost certain to get through,” Chell told Fox News Digital. “Modern defense systems were not originally designed to counter that kind of saturation attack.”
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A single Shahed drone is no match for a carrier strike group. But swarm tactics exploit economics: each U.S. SM-2 interceptor missile costs more than $2 million, while Iran can expend dozens of drones for the price of one. “These drones give Iran a very credible way to threaten surface vessels,” Chell said. U.S. assets are “large, slow-moving and easily identifiable on radar.”
The Lincoln, a Nimitz-class carrier commissioned in 1989 and recently modernized, displaces about 100,000 tons and carries more than 5,000 sailors and up to 90 aircraft. Its strike group includes guided-missile destroyers and cruisers equipped with the Aegis combat system, which can track and engage hundreds of targets simultaneously. Layered defenses include:
– Fighter jets on combat air patrol for early intercepts. – Standard Missile-2 and SM-6 interceptors for mid-range threats. – Close-in weapon systems like the Phalanx CIWS Gatling gun and Rolling Airframe Missiles for last-second defense. – Electronic warfare jammers and decoys to confuse incoming drones.
The Navy is also fielding new counter-swarm tools. High-energy lasers such as the 60-kilowatt HELIOS and ODIN systems can burn through drone components using the ship’s own electricity — effectively unlimited ammunition. High-power microwave weapons like Epirus’ Leonidas can fry electronics across multiple drones at once. Loitering interceptors such as Raytheon’s Coyote and Anduril’s Roadrunner-M are designed to hunt drones in the sky before they reach the carrier.
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Even so, analysts acknowledge vulnerabilities. A 2026 Gulf News analysis noted that a “1,000-strong” swarm could exhaust kinetic interceptors, forcing reliance on emerging directed-energy systems whose performance in real combat remains unproven at scale.
Robert Farley, a senior lecturer at the University of Kentucky’s Patterson School of Diplomacy and International Commerce, argued that actually sinking a modern supercarrier is extraordinarily difficult. “Modern aircraft carriers are far larger and more resilient than their World War II kin,” he said. A Ford-class carrier like the Gerald R. Ford is 150% the size of the largest WWII-era flattop and features sophisticated internal compartmentalization. “It’s a very tough hill to climb.”
Historical tests back his point. In 2005, the decommissioned USS America endured weeks of live-fire attacks before being scuttled by internal charges — with damage-control teams deliberately withheld. Real-world fires aboard carriers such as the USS Forrestal in 1967 caused heavy casualties but did not sink the ships.
A more realistic Iranian goal, experts say, would be a “mission kill” — damaging flight decks, catapults or hangar bays enough to sideline the carrier for repairs. Even a near-miss or symbolic hit could carry political weight in Washington, where public reaction to American casualties or visible damage can influence policy.
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Iran’s approach draws lessons from its proxies. Houthi rebels in Yemen, armed with Iranian-supplied Shahed drones and missiles, harassed Red Sea shipping for months in 2024-2025 without sinking a U.S. warship. The experience highlighted both the persistence of drone threats and the effectiveness of layered carrier-group defenses. U.S. destroyers routinely downed incoming drones and missiles, but the operations underscored the cost imbalance.
Iran has also experimented with “drone carriers” — converted merchant vessels like the Shahid Bagheri capable of launching up to 60 Shaheds at once — alongside fast-attack boats and anti-ship ballistic missiles. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy views these as tools to saturate sensors and deplete magazines before a decisive strike.
U.S. officials maintain that no American carrier has been lost to enemy action since World War II and that current capabilities keep the advantage firmly with American forces. Yet the Navy is accelerating investment in drone countermeasures, including AI-driven targeting and autonomous interceptors, precisely because the threat is evolving faster than traditional systems anticipated.
For now, the Abraham Lincoln and its escorts continue operations in waters where Iranian drones have already probed defenses. Whether Tehran can translate its low-cost swarm doctrine into a carrier-killing capability remains an open question — one that defense planners on both sides are watching closely as tensions persist.
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The economic asymmetry is undeniable: Iran can lose hundreds of drones and still launch more the next day. The United States can lose none. That calculus, experts say, is reshaping naval warfare in the 21st century, even if the world’s most powerful warships remain afloat.
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Exor N.V. (EXXRF) Q4 2025 Earnings Call March 24, 2026 11:00 AM EDT
Company Participants
John Elkann – CEO & Director Benoit Ribadeau-Dumas Suzanne Heywood – Chief Operating Officer Guido de Boer – Chief Financial Officer
Conference Call Participants
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Monica Bosio – Intesa Sanpaolo Equity Research Martino De Ambroggi – Equita SIM S.p.A., Research Division Luuk Van Beek – Banque Degroof Petercam S.A., Research Division Alberto Villa – Intermonte SIM S.p.A., Research Division Andrea Balloni – Mediobanca – Banca di credito finanziario S.p.A., Research Division
Presentation
Operator
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Ladies and gentlemen, good afternoon. Welcome, and thank you for joining the Exor Investor and Analyst Call. Please note that the presentation is available to download on Exor website www.exor.com under the Investors and Media, Events & Presentations section.
Any forward-looking statements Exor management makes are covered by the safe harbor statement included in the presentation material. Please note that this conference is being recorded. [Operator Instructions].
At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to your host, CEO, John Elkann. Please go ahead.
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John Elkann CEO & Director
Good morning, good afternoon and good evening to all of you. Thank you for being here today with us. 2025 was a difficult year in many different ways for Exor and for our companies. But it also has been a year that has helped us be more focused and be more resilient, which enables us as a company to be better prepared for another difficult year, which will be 2026.
Today, we want to talk to you about our companies. We have less of them and we have more in health care. We want to speak to you about Lingotto who has reached a very important milestone in ’25, reaching EUR 10 billion of assets under management driven by performance, which is exactly in line with our intentions of building an investment
Chinese oil major Sinopec600028 -1.66%decrease; red down pointing triangle struck a cautious tone during a post-earnings briefing, saying it has enough inventory to maintain stable production and multiple contingency plans in place as the conflict in the Middle East stokes worries about countries running out of fuel.
However, it said that a prolonged conflict would pose more severe challenges.
Diesel standards have been lowered to help suppliers bring more fuel into the domestic market as hundreds of service stations across the country run dry, including six in WA.
Stocks are nearing their first correction in about a year as the Iran war drives up oil prices and sparks worries about a resurgence in inflation.
Futures tracking the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 235 points, or 0.5%, on Monday. S&P 500 futures were 0.6% lower and contracts tied to the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 tumbled 0.7%.
The three major indexes have tumbled for four weeks in a row, putting them on the brink of closing in correction territory. A correction is when an index falls 10% from its recent high.
The Los Angeles Dodgers have finalized their starting rotation plans for the beginning of the 2026 season, naming Yoshinobu Yamamoto as the Opening Day starter and confirming that Japanese right-hander Roki Sasaki will open the year in the rotation despite a rocky spring training.
Roki Sasaki
Manager Dave Roberts revealed the group’s composition Tuesday, listing Yamamoto, Tyler Glasnow, Sasaki, Emmet Sheehan and two-way star Shohei Ohtani as the primary starters to begin the campaign. Justin Wrobleski is expected to provide piggyback relief or long outings early on as the club eases its high-upside arms back into game action following the shortened spring.
The Dodgers, fresh off a 2025 World Series title, will host the Arizona Diamondbacks in their home opener Thursday, March 26, at Dodger Stadium. Yamamoto, who earned World Series MVP honors last October, gets the ball first against Arizona ace Zac Gallen in what promises to be a marquee matchup.
Roberts indicated the initial order will likely feature Yamamoto on Opening Day, followed by Glasnow, Sasaki, Sheehan and Ohtani in some sequence across the first week. Ohtani is slated to make his first start of the season March 31 against the Cleveland Guardians. The club plans to lean on a five-man rotation initially but has the depth to shift to six once Blake Snell and others return from injuries.
Sasaki’s inclusion comes with caveats. The 24-year-old right-hander, who signed with the Dodgers before the 2025 season after dominating in Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball, has struggled with command and mechanics this spring. He posted concerning results in Cactus League outings, including control issues that led the team to adjust his buildup with backfield “B” games and simulated innings.
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Despite the uneven performances, Roberts has remained steadfast.
“He’s going to be one of our starters” to open the season, Roberts said this week, emphasizing that spring training stats alone do not define readiness. The manager pointed to Sasaki’s talent, work ethic and the organization’s belief that his performance will trend upward once the regular season begins.
Sasaki flashed elite stuff in limited 2025 action, touching triple digits with his fastball and deploying a devastating splitter. He began last year in the rotation but shifted to the bullpen late in the season, where he excelled as a high-leverage reliever and even served as a closer option during the postseason. His October contributions helped the Dodgers claim their championship.
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General Manager Brandon Gomes and President of Baseball Operations Andrew Friedman have consistently viewed Sasaki as a starter long-term, citing his two-pitch dominance in Japan and potential to develop further with better execution and health.
“He’s feeling awesome physically,” Gomes said earlier this offseason. The club has worked with Sasaki on refining his cutter and two-seam fastball to complement his heater-splitter arsenal, aiming to give him more weapons against big-league lineups the third time through the order.
Fan frustration has surfaced at times. Reports and social media clips from spring games captured moments where Sasaki heard boos from Dodger Stadium crowds after shaky outings, echoing occasional heckling he faced on the road last season. In one memorable 2025 postseason exchange against the Philadelphia Phillies, Sasaki shrugged off boos by noting through an interpreter that he doesn’t understand English well enough to be bothered — a response that quickly became a fan favorite for its unflappable cool.
Those moments highlight the high expectations placed on the young international star in a star-studded clubhouse. Sasaki himself has spoken about embracing competition during DodgerFest events, acknowledging the depth of the rotation and the need to earn his spot daily.
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The broader rotation picture remains formidable even with injuries. Snell, a former Cy Young winner, is targeting a late-May return from a shoulder issue. Gavin Stone is also sidelined. That leaves Yamamoto — already compared to Sandy Koufax for his early Dodgers dominance — Glasnow, who looked sharp in his final spring start with 11 strikeouts over five innings, Ohtani, Sheehan and Sasaki to carry the load.
Ohtani’s dual role adds unique flexibility. The two-time MVP and reigning American League MVP will continue hitting every day while making starts roughly every six days, a workload the Dodgers have carefully managed.
Depth arms such as River Ryan, who is returning from surgery, and others on the 40-man roster provide insurance. Roberts noted the club could “piggyback” starters early to control innings and protect arms, a common strategy for teams with elite but sometimes fragile pitching.
Analysts project the Dodgers’ staff to rank among the majors’ best if health cooperates. Yamamoto and Glasnow form a potent 1-2 punch, while Ohtani’s starts carry historic weight. Sheehan earned his rotation spot with strong spring and minor-league track record. Sasaki represents the wildcard — immense upside tempered by the need for consistency.
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Spring training statistics for Sasaki showed elevated walk rates and difficulty locating his pitches, prompting mechanical tweaks. Roberts has downplayed the results, saying the organization is “betting on the talent” and expecting improvement with regular-season adrenaline and refined routines.
The Dodgers open the season with a favorable homestand against the Diamondbacks and Guardians before heading on the road. Early off-days in the schedule allow for the piggyback approach without immediately taxing the bullpen.
Longer term, the club hopes to settle into a six-man rotation once Snell returns, giving everyone extra rest in a marathon 162-game season. That setup could maximize the rotation’s talent while minimizing injury risk for pitchers like Glasnow, who has a history of durability questions.
Sasaki’s journey from Japanese phenom to MLB starter has drawn global attention. Signed under international bonus pool rules for a relatively modest $6.5 million, he quickly became one of the most discussed young arms in baseball. His 2025 rookie season was a tale of two halves: promise as a starter followed by dominance in relief.
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Now, with a full offseason of adjustments under his belt, Sasaki aims to prove he belongs at the front of a championship rotation. Teammates and coaches have praised his work ethic and positive attitude amid the scrutiny.
“He’s excited about returning to the rotation,” Sasaki said through an interpreter at fan events. “It’s the team’s decision, but I have to secure my position.”
Off the field, the Dodgers’ pitching depth has fueled ongoing debates about competitive balance in Major League Baseball. The club’s ability to attract top talent, including multiple Japanese stars in Yamamoto, Sasaki and others, has drawn both admiration and criticism from rival front offices.
For now, focus remains on execution. Roberts and his staff will monitor Sasaki closely in the first few turns through the rotation. If command issues persist, the club has options to shift him to shorter outings or the bullpen temporarily, though the stated preference is to develop him as a starter.
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The 2026 Dodgers enter the season as heavy favorites in the National League West and among the top World Series contenders once again. Their rotation — anchored by proven aces and high-ceiling young arms — will be central to those aspirations.
Whether Sasaki can silence doubters and translate his raw stuff into consistent outings remains one of the most compelling storylines as the defending champions begin their title defense.
Fans at Dodger Stadium will get their first extended look Thursday when Yamamoto takes the mound, with the rest of the rotation following in quick succession. For Sasaki, the boos of spring could turn to cheers if he delivers on the promise that made him a coveted international signing.
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