SYDNEY — Australia’s vast trucking industry, the backbone of the nation’s freight, mining and agricultural supply chains, is confronting a looming AdBlue crisis that could force thousands of modern diesel trucks into “limp mode” or off the road entirely within 30 days, as global disruptions from the US-Iran war tighten supplies of urea, the key ingredient in the emissions-control fluid.

AdBlue, also known as diesel exhaust fluid (DEF), is a mixture of urea and deionized water injected into the exhaust systems of Euro 5 and Euro 6 diesel engines to reduce harmful nitrogen oxide emissions. Without it, most post-2010 heavy vehicles trigger onboard diagnostics that limit speed and power or shut down the engine altogether after a short grace period. Industry estimates suggest Australia’s roughly 400,000 AdBlue-dependent trucks and heavy machinery consume around 150 million litres annually, or more than 3 million litres per week.

The current squeeze stems from two converging shocks. The Iran conflict has disrupted global chemical and fertilizer supply chains, with the Middle East accounting for about two-thirds of Australia’s urea imports. Urea prices have nearly doubled in recent weeks amid shipping risks in the Strait of Hormuz and export restrictions by major producers. At the same time, China — a significant alternative supplier — has curtailed exports to protect its own agricultural needs, echoing the 2021 crisis that nearly paralyzed road transport.

Government and industry sources indicate current AdBlue and technical-grade urea stockpiles provide only a limited buffer. One analysis points to roughly 12 weeks of total DEF supply nationally, including a federal strategic reserve of about 7,500 tonnes of technical-grade urea equivalent to roughly five weeks of normal demand. However, panic buying, surging diesel consumption and distribution bottlenecks in regional areas are accelerating drawdown rates. Trucking groups warn that without urgent diversification or local production ramps, critical shortages could emerge by late April or early May 2026.

Road Freight NSW and other state associations have already flagged the issue as a national priority alongside diesel availability. Some operators report difficulty sourcing AdBlue at truck stops, with prices climbing sharply in areas where stock remains. In a worst-case scenario, logistics firms say they may be forced to park modern fleets and rely on older, non-AdBlue vehicles — if any are available — or face widespread delays in delivering food, fuel, medical supplies and mining outputs.

The vulnerability is amplified by Australia’s thin overall fuel reserves. As of early March, the nation held approximately 32-36 days of diesel, 29-36 days of petrol and even less jet fuel — far below the International Energy Agency’s 90-day recommendation. The government has released up to 20 percent of domestic reserves and relaxed some fuel quality standards to boost local output, but these measures address diesel volume more than AdBlue chemistry.

Farmers and miners, heavy users of diesel-powered equipment, face a double hit. Urea is also essential for nitrogen fertilizer, and shortages could constrain winter cropping just as planting ramps up. Trucking disruptions would compound the problem by slowing the movement of inputs and outputs across vast regional networks.

The federal government has quietly formed or reactivated a DEF taskforce to explore solutions, including alternative international suppliers, bolstering local manufacturing and possible technical workarounds for vehicles. In the 2021 crisis, authorities worked with Incitec Pivot to ramp up domestic technical-grade urea production dramatically. Similar efforts are under discussion, but scaling takes time and faces hurdles around natural gas feedstock and plant capacity.

Industry leaders are urging calm while pressing for transparency on stockpile levels and distribution plans. The Australian Trucking Association and logistics bodies have called for weekly public reporting on AdBlue availability, similar to fuel updates. Some operators are already rationing usage or seeking older trucks, but fleet modernization means the vast majority of long-haul rigs now rely on the fluid.

Environmental groups note the irony: AdBlue was introduced to clean up diesel emissions, yet supply chain fragility now threatens the very transport system it was meant to sustain. Temporary technical fixes, such as software adjustments to reduce AdBlue dependency or allow higher-sulphur diesel, are being discussed but could compromise air quality gains achieved in recent years.

The crisis highlights deeper structural weaknesses. Australia imports the bulk of its refined fuels and key chemicals, leaving it exposed to distant geopolitical shocks. Calls are growing for accelerated investment in sovereign capabilities, including domestic urea and AdBlue production tied to renewable hydrogen pathways or gas reserves. The “Future Made in Australia” plan and green hydrogen initiatives could eventually support local manufacturing, but short-term gaps remain dangerous.

As the Iran conflict drags into its fourth week with no clear end, trucking executives warn that a full AdBlue shutdown would cascade far beyond the roads. Supermarket shelves could empty faster, fuel distribution to regional areas might stall, and mining exports — a cornerstone of the economy — could slow. Emergency planning is underway, but officials emphasize that prevention through diversified supply and strategic reserves is preferable to last-minute fixes.

For now, the message from government and industry is measured: monitor usage, avoid hoarding, and support efforts to secure new shipments. Yet behind closed doors, the clock is ticking. With modern diesel engines designed to enforce compliance, Australia’s trucking fleet stands at risk of a sudden and widespread immobilization that no amount of diesel alone can solve.

The AdBlue emergency serves as a stark reminder that national resilience depends on more than just filling tanks — it requires securing every link in the chemical and energy chains that keep the economy moving.

Benjamin Berkowitz is a Texas-based commercial real estate professional known for his disciplined approach to retail investment sales and long-term value creation. He currently serves as Vice President at Colonial Commercial Real Estate and is Co-Founder and Principal of Pearl Capital.

Berkowitz began his career at Colonial as an associate and quickly focused on understanding the fundamentals of retail deals. Since becoming licensed in Texas in 2021, he has completed more than $60 million in transaction volume. His work centres on single-tenant and multi-tenant retail properties, including freestanding buildings and neighbourhood shopping centres.

His early experience included missed deals and lost listings. Rather than viewing these as setbacks, he used them to refine his process. He shifted his focus from short-term wins to building a strong pipeline and long-term credibility.

At Colonial, Berkowitz expanded into tenant representation, including acting as the exclusive representative for Flytrex. This work gave him a broader understanding of how tenants evaluate sites and structure leases.

In 2025, he co-founded Pearl Capital. The firm focuses on acquiring essential-service retail properties in high-growth secondary markets. Its strategy centres on leasing execution, operational improvements, and repositioning assets over time. Pearl completed its first acquisition in Wichita Falls, Texas.

Berkowitz’s work is defined by discipline, clear goal-setting, and consistent execution across both brokerage and investment.

Benjamin Berkowitz: Building Discipline in Retail Real Estate

Q&A Interview

Q: How did you get started in commercial real estate?

I started my career at Colonial Commercial Real Estate as a sales associate. Early on, I was focused on learning how deals actually work. That meant understanding pricing, tenant structures, and what drives value in retail assets.

Q: What did those early years look like for you?

They were not easy. I lost several deals and listings that I thought I had done everything right on. At the time, that was frustrating. But it forced me to look at what I could control and improve.

Q: What changed after that period?

My mindset shifted. I stopped focusing on immediate results and started building a pipeline. I focused more on consistency and credibility. Over time, that approach led to better outcomes.

Q: How would you describe your work at Colonial today?

I focus on retail investment sales. That includes single-tenant and multi-tenant properties, as well as freestanding buildings. Since 2021, I have completed over $60 million in transactions.

Q: What makes retail real estate unique?

It is very detail-oriented. You need to understand tenants, leases, and local demand. Small differences in tenant mix or location can change the value of a property.

Q: You also work in tenant representation. How did that come about?

That came through working with Flytrex. I serve as their exclusive tenant representative. It gave me a different perspective. Instead of just looking at deals from the ownership side, I started to understand how tenants think about site selection.

Q: How did Pearl Capital come together?

In 2025, I co-founded Pearl Capital to focus on acquisitions. We wanted to take what we learned in brokerage and apply it to ownership. The goal was to build a platform around essential-service retail.

Q: What is the strategy behind Pearl Capital?

We focus on neighbourhood and community shopping centres in secondary markets. We look closely at micro-market fundamentals. That includes population trends, tenant demand, and local economics.

Q: Can you share an example of how that strategy works in practice?

Our first acquisition was a 43,000-square-foot shopping centre in Wichita Falls, Texas. It fit our model. It had strong fundamentals, and we saw opportunities to improve leasing and operations over time.

Q: How do you define success in your work?

I define success as setting clear goals and executing on them. It is not just about closing a deal. It is about following through on a plan.

Q: What qualities matter most in this industry?

Discipline, credibility, and long-term thinking. Those are the things that compound over time.

Q: How do you approach long-term growth?

I set long-term goals first so I know where I am heading. Then I break those down into short-term steps. That keeps me focused and consistent.

Q: What continues to drive you in your career today?

Execution. Staying consistent. And continuing to build both the brokerage side and Pearl Capital in a way that creates long-term value.

Ido Berniker is a luxury real estate broker known for operating at the highest end of the global property market.

As a founding member of Mercer Partners International, he specialises in ultra-prime residential transactions across New York and London. His work centres on advising high-net-worth clients on complex, high-value property decisions.

Originally from Israel, Berniker moved to New York to build his career in real estate. He entered one of the most competitive markets in the world and focused early on the luxury segment. Over time, he developed a reputation for discretion, consistency, and a clear understanding of global demand.

His career includes involvement in landmark transactions. He has represented buyers in major deals at 220 Central Park West in New York, a building known for attracting billionaire investors. He has also worked on high-profile London properties, including residences at 1 Hyde Park.

Berniker is widely recognised for his insight into global market trends. He often compares London and New York, highlighting shifts in supply, demand, and buyer behaviour. He has noted, for example, how London’s limited inventory can drive rapid price rebounds, while excess supply in New York can slow momentum.

He is frequently cited in publications such as Forbes, where he shares perspectives on luxury housing trends and international investment patterns.

His approach focuses on long-term value and generational ownership. Rather than short-term gains, he emphasises timing, market cycles, and strategic positioning within the global luxury real estate landscape.

Inside Luxury Real Estate with Ido Berniker

Q: You began your career outside the United States. What led you to New York?

I moved from Israel to New York because I saw it as the centre of global real estate. It’s one of the most competitive markets in the world. If you can succeed there, you can succeed anywhere. I wanted to be in that environment early on.

Q: Why did you choose to focus on the luxury segment?

I was drawn to the complexity of it. These are not standard transactions. You’re working with global clients, often across multiple markets. The decisions are bigger. The timelines are longer. It requires a different level of understanding.

Q: What were some of the early milestones in your career?

Getting involved in high-end deals in New York was a turning point. Transactions at 220 Central Park West stand out. That building became a symbol of the market at its peak. Nearly every buyer was operating at the highest level.

Q: You’ve also worked extensively in London. How did that come about?

Many of the clients we work with are international. They don’t just look at one city. London naturally became part of that conversation. It attracts a similar type of buyer to New York, but the market behaves differently.

Q: You’ve spoken about differences between London and New York. What stands out most?

Supply and demand. In New York, at one point, there was too much inventory at the top end. That changes the dynamic. In London, supply is much tighter. That creates a different kind of pressure on prices.

Q: You once said London was positioned for a rebound. What were you seeing at the time?

There was a lot of uncertainty around Brexit. Buyers were waiting. Prices had dropped. Once that uncertainty started to clear, it created an opening. People who had been on the sidelines for years began to move.

Q: How do your clients typically approach these purchases?

Many of them are thinking long term. These are generational assets. They’re not just buying a property for today. They’re thinking about how it fits into a broader portfolio or family plan.

Q: How has the New York market changed over time?

It’s very different from what it was in 2016. Back then, the market was very liquid. There was a lot of cash. Since then, it has tightened. Inventory increased, and demand shifted. That affects pricing and deal flow.

Q: What role does timing play in the luxury market?

It’s critical. You can have the right asset, but if the timing is off, it changes everything. A lot of our work is helping clients understand where we are in the cycle.

Q: How do you stay ahead of market trends?

You have to watch multiple markets at once. You can’t just focus on one city. Capital moves globally. What happens in London can affect New York, and vice versa.

Q: What has helped you build long-term relationships with clients?

Trust and discretion. These are very private transactions. Clients want to know their interests are protected. That matters more than anything else.

Q: Looking back, what has defined your career so far?

Consistency. Staying focused on the long term. Not chasing short-term trends. The market always changes, but the fundamentals stay the same.

SAN FRANCISCO — Travelers at San Francisco International Airport are experiencing relatively smooth security lines as of March 25, 2026, with TSA checkpoint wait times averaging between 10 and 20 minutes despite the ongoing partial government shutdown that has caused hours-long delays at many other major U.S. airports.

SFO, the largest airport in the nation participating in the Transportation Security Administration’s Screening Partnership Program (SPP), outsources its screening operations to a private contractor, Covenant Aviation Security. While TSA supervises all procedures and standards, the screeners themselves are private employees paid through a separate funding stream unaffected by the federal funding lapse. As a result, SFO has maintained normal operations and consistent staffing levels even as unpaid TSA officers elsewhere have called out in large numbers.

The official SFO website states that passengers should expect “normal wait times” and explicitly notes that the private arrangement shields the airport from shutdown-related disruptions. Airport spokesperson Doug Yakel has confirmed that payments to the contractor continue uninterrupted, allowing checkpoints to operate at full capacity.

Real-time data from multiple tracking sources on Wednesday showed average general security waits ranging from as low as 5-7 minutes in quieter periods to 15-25 minutes during typical morning and afternoon rushes. Some reports placed current averages around 7-10 minutes overall, with occasional peaks near 20-30 minutes at busier checkpoints. TSA PreCheck lanes consistently cleared in 3-5 minutes, while CLEAR biometric lanes provided even faster ID verification for enrolled passengers.

SFO operates multiple security checkpoints across its terminals, including A, B, B-Mezzanine, D, F1 and G, with varying hours that generally run from early morning until late night. Some checkpoints, such as certain areas in Terminal 3 or Boarding Area F3, may be temporarily closed or consolidated due to construction or lower volume, directing traffic to open lanes without major backups.

The contrast with other California and national hubs is stark. While airports like Los Angeles, San Diego and Houston have reported waits stretching to an hour or more — and in extreme cases outside terminals — SFO has avoided the chaos. Only a handful of U.S. airports, including Kansas City, use similar private screening models and have likewise reported stable lines.

Airport officials recommend arriving two hours before domestic flights and three hours before international departures, the standard guidance that remains unchanged. The FlySFO mobile app and on-site digital signage provide real-time checkpoint estimates, helping passengers choose the fastest lane. Third-party trackers such as AirlineAirport.com and OnAirParking also aggregate user-reported and historical data, showing SFO’s typical efficiency even during peak spring travel.

Expedited options remain popular and effective at SFO. TSA PreCheck, available at most checkpoints, allows travelers to keep shoes, light jackets and laptops in bags, dramatically shortening the process. CLEAR lanes, located in multiple terminals including the International Terminal and Terminal 1, handle biometric verification in seconds before feeding into PreCheck or standard lines. Frequent flyers report clearing the entire security experience — from bag drop to gate — in under 15 minutes when using both services.

The airport’s Screening Partnership Program status dates back years and has repeatedly proven its value during federal disruptions. In previous government funding standoffs, SFO similarly maintained smooth operations while TSA-run airports faced backlogs. Officials credit the private contractor’s ability to maintain consistent staffing and flexible scheduling.

Beyond security, SFO continues its broader modernization efforts. A new command center oversees everything from roadway traffic to runway movements, helping manage overall passenger flow. United Airlines, SFO’s largest carrier, operates extensive domestic and international routes from the airport, with recent announcements of new premium long-haul services adding to spring and summer demand.

Travelers are reminded to follow standard TSA rules, including the 3-1-1 liquids guideline and proper packing for electronics. The airport encourages downloading the MyTSA app for general guidance, though real-time updates during the shutdown have been inconsistent on federal platforms; SFO’s own systems provide more reliable local information.

Spring break and business travel volumes are ramping up, yet SFO has not issued any special alerts urging earlier arrivals. Passenger feedback on forums and social media frequently praises the airport’s efficiency compared with other West Coast hubs, with many noting waits under 10 minutes even during morning rushes when using PreCheck or CLEAR.

For those without expedited programs, strategic timing helps. Early mornings before 6 a.m. or late evenings after 8 p.m. often see the shortest general lines, while mid-morning and mid-afternoon can see moderate buildup. International Terminal checkpoints sometimes experience slightly longer waits due to additional document checks, but private screening has kept those manageable.

As the shutdown stretches into late March with no immediate resolution in sight, SFO’s resilience stands out. The arrangement demonstrates how public-private partnerships can deliver reliable service in times of federal uncertainty. Airport leaders continue monitoring the situation and coordinating with the contractor to ensure any future surges are handled smoothly.

Travelers heading to SFO are advised to check the official FlySFO website or app shortly before departure for the latest checkpoint status. With normal wait times holding steady, the Bay Area’s gateway remains one of the more traveler-friendly major airports during a challenging period for U.S. air travel.

While the broader shutdown has strained security operations nationwide and prompted calls for policy changes, SFO offers a practical example of continuity. Passengers can focus more on enjoying their journey than worrying about missing flights due to security delays.

Boxing legend Mike Tyson is back in the gym and sounding confident as he prepares for a much-anticipated exhibition bout against Floyd Mayweather Jr. in spring 2026, insisting the clash will be “the biggest event in boxing” even as he approaches his 60th birthday and juggles new ventures in amateur boxing and public health advocacy.

Tyson, who turns 60 on June 30, has repeatedly confirmed the exhibition with the undefeated Mayweather, with reports pointing to a tentative date of April 25, 2026, in the Democratic Republic of the Congo. The matchup, promoted by CSI Sports/FIGHT SPORTS, would pit two of the sport’s most iconic figures against each other for the first time, generating massive global interest despite both men being well past their primes.

In a recent exclusive interview, Tyson expressed excitement about the fight while acknowledging lessons from his November 2024 loss to Jake Paul. “I feel good right now. This is the best I’ve felt,” he said, adding that he trained too intensely for the Paul bout and plans to relax more this time. “I learned from my last fight. I left a lot of my fight in the gym.”

The 59-year-old former undisputed heavyweight champion has dismissed any notion of backing out. When asked about rumors the Mayweather fight might be canceled, Tyson replied bluntly: “Yeah it’s happening. You think I’d give that up?” He has described the event as record-breaking and previously floated Africa as the venue, though organizers have not finalized all details.

Mayweather, 48 and still boasting a perfect 50-0 professional record, has signaled he will treat the Tyson exhibition as a bridge back toward sanctioned bouts, having signed with CSI Sports for future professional activity. The fight is expected to follow exhibition rules with larger gloves and limited rounds, similar to Tyson’s Netflix clash with Paul.

Beyond the ring, Tyson is expanding his influence. He recently announced plans for a series of amateur boxing events in 2026, starting at the Sahara Hotel in Las Vegas and expanding to Reno and other locations. The card will air on Don King’s platform beginning at 9 p.m. Eastern on Saturdays, with streaming on Swerve TV and CSI Fight Sports. Tyson said the events aim to give young fighters opportunities and help “save the sport of boxing.”

He is also stepping up as a health advocate. In February 2026, Tyson joined U.S. Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and other officials at a “Make America Healthy Again” event, speaking candidly about his family’s struggles with obesity and ultraprocessed foods. Tyson lost a sister to obesity-related illness at age 25 and has vowed to fight what he calls America’s worst addiction. He appeared in a Super Bowl ad promoting the cause and continues to emphasize nutrition and wellness.

Tyson has been open about past and ongoing health issues. A severe ulcer flare-up in 2024 forced the postponement of his original Paul fight, causing significant weight loss and a medical scare in which he said he “lost half my blood” and “almost died.” He has also battled persistent foot fungus for years, a condition he attributes to his sockless fighting image. Despite these challenges, Tyson insists he feels strong and is training seriously for the Mayweather exhibition.

Advertisement

Financial motivation remains a factor. Tyson has acknowledged that money drives his continued activity at an advanced age, telling interviewers the exhibition paydays help secure his family’s future. Yet he frames the Mayweather fight as more than business — a chance to create a spectacle that transcends generations and captivates new audiences.

The boxing world remains divided on the wisdom of the matchup. Critics worry about the risks to Tyson’s health at nearly 60, while supporters see it as harmless entertainment that could draw record viewership and boost the sport’s visibility. Tyson has floated the idea of a rematch with Jake Paul after the Mayweather bout, saying he would be “more adapted” with additional experience.

Tyson is also returning to the stage. His new one-man show, “Return of the Mike,” will debut at Hard Rock Live venues in late 2025 before a global streaming release in 2026. The production follows his successful 2013 tour “Mike Tyson: The Undisputed Truth” and promises fresh stories from his storied life.

In interviews, Tyson has praised emerging talents while positioning himself as a bridge between boxing’s past and future. He continues to train young fighters and promote amateur events, saying he wants to give back to a sport that made him famous and infamous.

As preparations for the Mayweather exhibition intensify, Tyson appears energized. He has posted glimpses of gym work and spoken optimistically about his conditioning. Whether the April 2026 date in Africa holds or shifts, the bout is already generating buzz as a “legend versus legend” spectacle.

For a man once known as “The Baddest Man on the Planet,” the coming year blends nostalgia, ambition and reinvention. Tyson’s 40-year boxing record could face new scrutiny if he steps back into a competitive environment, yet he shows little sign of slowing down.

Fans and analysts will watch closely as training footage emerges and details solidify. In the meantime, Tyson’s amateur events, health advocacy and stage work ensure the former champion remains a commanding presence both inside and outside the ropes.

At nearly 60, “Iron Mike” is still swinging — in the gym, on stage and in the public conversation — proving that some legends refuse to fade quietly.

The wounds from the recent bloodbath remain fresh on Dalal Street, even as markets attempt to recover some losses. Market expert Manish Chokhani pointed out that Indian currency, bonds and equities are all cheap now, and this could unleash a buying frenzy.

“Indian currency, Indian bonds, Indian equities are all cheap now. Just waiting for cheap oil to unleash a buying frenzy? Is it the dark hour before dawn…or the twilight before a dark night?” the Director at Enam Holdings said in a post on X.

Both Sensex and Nifty have crashed nearly 9% respectively so far in March, with the sharp selloff wiping out more than Rs 40 lakh crore from the total market capitalization of all companies listed on BSE. This came as the war between Iran and US-Israel triggered a massive rally in oil prices and rattled global markets. Market analysts also highlighted the possible impact of prolonged elevated oil prices on India’s economy.Earlier this month, Moody’s Ratings had said that India could face pressure on the rupee, higher inflation and a widening current account deficit in case the Middle East crisis continued to push up energy prices and disrupt supplies. Costly energy imports would weaken the rupee, raise inflation, worsen the current account balance and complicate monetary policy as well as fiscal management if they lead to expanded subsidies to help offset the economic shock.

“India is a resilient country with strong fundamentals. While we have war raging on, Indians understand the challenges and are willing to work with the government. There will be a shortfall in economic activity in the short run, but we will make up for it in the coming months,” said Union Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal during a fireside chat with CNBC-TV18 earlier this month.

Markets heal after bloodbath

While the war is officially in its fourth week, markets found some much-needed relief after the leaders of the countries involved in the conflict hinted at ceasefire talks and possibility of reopening the Strait of Hormuz, a critical waterway for oil supply.
The US President Donald Trump-led administration has sent a 15-point plan and ceasefire proposal to Iran to end the raging war in the Middle East, multiple news agencies reported. The peace plan was shared with Iranian officials on Tuesday via Pakistan, according to the New York Times.
Trump, meanwhile, claimed that Iran has agreed that it will “never have a nuclear weapon”, even as fighting in the region continued and Tehran publicly denied that any formal negotiations are underway. Trump also claimed victory in the war, stating that US military forces have destroyed Iran’s military capabilities. “Look, their navy’s gone, their air force is gone, their communications are gone. Pretty much everything they have is gone,” he said. Later, the US President added that Iran had sent what he described as a “very big present” linked to the Strait of Hormuz, calling it a sign that the US was “dealing with the right people”.

As a result of the rising expectations of the war ending soon, oil prices sharply slipped below the key $100 per barrel mark today. Brent crude futures declined nearly 5% to $99 per barrel on Wednesday morning.

Indian stock markets rallied sharply on Wednesday, with Sensex jumping 1,150 points to 75,214, while Nifty 50 gained 370 points to near 23,300 in the morning. The benchmark indices have extended gains for the second consecutive session, erasing all losses recorded during Monday’s crash.

The latest decline in oil prices have stoked hopes for the selloff in markets to calm down. Only time will tell whether the recent bloodbath was the “dark hour before dawn” or “the twilight before a dark night”, as stated by Chokhani.

(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times)

Shares of Solar Industries rallied as much as 5.4% to their day’s high of Rs 13,251 on the BSE on Wednesday after domestic brokerage firm Elara Capital initiated coverage with a Buy call, citing that the company is ‘unleashing growth juggernauts’.

With a target price of Rs 15,450, the brokerage implies an upside potential of 24% from the previous close of Rs 12,430 per share. Analysts said one of the world’s largest commercial explosives companies is entering its next phase of growth across the defence, explosives and mining value chain.

The company is evolving from a strong industrial explosives franchise into a vertically integrated defence manufacturer, positioning itself to tap high entry barrier segments such as propellants, warheads and rocket integration, ammunition, military drones and unmanned aerial vehicles, counter-drone systems and anti-tank guided missiles. At the same time, its international non-defence explosives business is also gaining solid traction.

The initiation comes at a crucial juncture for defence stocks, amid the ongoing Iran conflict and heightened geopolitical tensions. Here are the three key growth drivers for the company, according to Elara Capital.

1.) Defence to fire growth: Revenue from the segment has grown sharply at a CAGR of 82% over FY21-25, increasing its contribution from just 5% of total sales in FY21 to 18% in FY25. This segment is expected to drive the next phase of strong growth, supported by India’s defence capital expenditure of Rs 2.2 lakh crore in FY27, along with rising global conflicts and higher defence spending worldwide.

Modern warfare is increasingly centred around four key categories: missiles and rockets, drones, counter-drone systems and ammunition. The company remains the only player in India with a presence across all these segments, positioning it as a key beneficiary. Its in-house capabilities in defence explosives, including warheads, are likely to further accelerate growth. “We expect defence revenue to grow at a CAGR of 66% over FY25-28E, with its share in overall revenue rising to 42% by FY28E,” it said in a note.
2.) Going global: Global footprint expansion continues to drive growth in the explosives segment, with the company significantly strengthening its international presence. The company now operates in more than 90 countries and has established seven overseas manufacturing facilities across Zambia, Nigeria, Turkey, South Africa, Indonesia, Tanzania and Ghana. International business already contributes about 38% of total revenue in FY25, highlighting its strong global scale. Looking ahead, further momentum is expected with new operations planned in Kazakhstan, Saudi Arabia and Thailand over the next two years. This expansion is likely to support an exports CAGR of around 19% during FY25-28.3.) Defence Capex plan: The company is stepping up its defence ambitions with a significant capital expenditure plan. The company intends to invest Rs 2,200 crore over FY26-28E to scale up existing capabilities and explore new opportunities in areas such as advanced ammunition and aerospace solutions. This capex will be funded through a mix of internal accruals and debt.

The push is supported by a memorandum of understanding with the Government of Maharashtra for a large defence project worth Rs 12,700 crore over the next 10 years. The initiative aims to expand production across key segments, including drones and UAVs, counter-drone systems, energetic materials, next-generation explosives and robotics.

India’s defence story is expected to benefit from increasing indigenisation and a widening global ammunition supply gap. Rising geopolitical tensions, particularly in West Asia, along with the Russia-Ukraine conflict and growing risks across maritime, aerial and land domains, have created what can be described as a “security super cycle,” driving record-high global military spending and supporting sustained growth in the defence sector.

Against this backdrop, Solar Industries stands out with strong fundamentals. The company reported an EBITDA margin of 26% in FY25, along with a return on capital employed of around 37% and a return on equity of 31%, underscoring its operational strength and efficiency.

(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times.)