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There’s a huge $14 billion bitcoin options expiry this Friday and it points to $75,000 as price magnet

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Bitcoin March 27 options expiry. (Deribit)

On Friday, bitcoin options or derivative contracts worth billions will expire on crypto exchange Deribit. Traders might want to note that the dynamics of the expiry are such that BTC’s market price could be lifted toward a very specific point: $75,000.

Deribit, the world’s largest crypto options exchange, will settle bitcoin options contracts worth $14.16 billion on Friday at 08:00 UTC. This means nearly 40% of all open interest – the dollar value of all active contracts on the exchange – ware set to expire in roughly 48 hours. On Deribit, one options contract represents one BTC.

Options are contracts that let you bet on whether the price of an asset, such as BTC, will go up or down. A call option is a bet that the price will go up, and a put option is a bet that it will go down. Traders buy options to try to profit from price swings, or write (short) options to earn income while taking on the risk that prices move in favor of the buyer.

Here’s why the expiry matters

According to Deribit’s data, the ‘max pain’ price — the level where the most contracts would expire worthless (lottery tickets that don’t win) — sits right at $75,000.

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As such, this level could act as a magnet, according to Deribit’s Chief Commerical Officer Jean-David Péquignot.

“With Bitcoin currently trading near $71k, the $75k Max Pain price represents a gravitational pull. Historically, this encourages delta-hedging by market makers that can drive prices toward the strike where the most options expire worthless,” Péquignot told CoinDesk.

Bitcoin March 27 options expiry. (Deribit)
Bitcoin March 27 options expiry. (Deribit)

Here’s how it works. As per the max pain theory, option writers — typically large funds, institutions, or market makers with ample capital — control or influence the spot price toward the pain point to limit payouts to buyers and thereby inflict maximum damage on them. This happens through normal trading in the spot or futures markets, rather than as a guaranteed manipulation.

This mechanical buying and selling often pulls the spot price closer to the max pain level, which is $75,000 in bitcoin’s case.

While max pain is well-known in traditional markets, its influence on crypto remains debated. Deribit, however, flags the level as a potential magnet. Adding to the intrigue, several analysts have identified $75,000 as key resistance, above which bitcoin could go into a full-bull mode.

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Controlled expiry

Quarterly expiries typically spark massive position adjustments and hedging flows. Still, the impending expiry is likely unfold normally, without an outsized volatility surge.

That’s evident from the decline in the implied volatility index.

“Over the last sessions, we have witnessed an implied volatility (IV) compression, with both BTC and ETH DVOL dropping by ~6 points. This suggests the market is pricing in a controlled expiry rather than an immediate explosion in volatility,” Péquignot said.

He added that the market data suggests that traders aren’t chasing a breakout as geopolitical uncertainty in the form of Iran war lingers. He specifically pointed to call writing by institutions at higher strikes (levels above going spot price) as the evidence of measured bullish sentiment. Traders typically write overhead calls to collect premiums on top of their spot market holdings.

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“The Put/Call ratio for Bitcoin options remains healthy (0.63), but the concentration of sell-side calls suggests a ceiling of institutional resistance as traders have been overwriting their positions to bank premium while waiting for the geopolitical clock to run out,” he noted.

All in all, the big expiry with $75,000 acting as a magnet comes at an intriguing juncture: bitcoin has held up remarkably well through the Iran war turbulence, maintaining strength even as equities wobble and energy markets remain fickle.

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Bitcoin (BTC) price, stocks rise as dollar weakens, oil falls: Crypto Daybook Americas

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CD20

By Omkar Godbole (All times ET unless indicated otherwise)

Bitcoin and the broader crypto market are holding firm alongside U.S. stock futures as oil prices, bond yields and the Dollar Index ease on signs that ceasefire talks between the U.S. and Iran could begin as early as Thursday.

Still, nothing is confirmed, and it may be too soon to position for a full return to normalcy, according to some observers.

“We are not geopolitical experts, but we would have thought Iran would have maximum leverage of high energy prices going into any negotiation,” analysts at ING said. “Thus, it is probably too early to expect any big drop in energy prices or a much softer dollar this week.”

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Skepticism remains on the Iranian side as well. According to Axios, officials have told Pakistan, Egypt and Turkey that recent U.S. military movements have deepened suspicions that Trump’s peace proposal may be just a ruse.

Macro conditions are also turning less supportive. The U.S. money market curve has now priced out any Fed easing this year, a sharp shift from earlier expectations of at least two 25-basis-point cuts, which were seen as a key bullish catalyst for BTC and other risk assets.

On the crypto front, the news flow hasn’t helped either. Circle Internet’s (CRCL) stock slid Tuesday after a leaked draft of the Clarity Act suggested limits on paying interest on idle stablecoin balances. Meanwhile, Arkham Intelligence reported that Bhutan may be selling roughly $30 million worth of BTC, with the government still holding 4,453 coins valued at about $315.9 million.

Despite these headwinds, bitcoin continues to hold above $70,000, with dips proving short-lived. A market that refuses to fall on negative news often signals underlying strength, potentially setting the stage for a larger move higher. Dynamics of bitcoin’s impending options expiry on Friday point to a potential for a bounce to $75,000. Stay alert!

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Read more: For analysis of today’s activity in altcoins and derivatives, see Crypto Markets Today

What to Watch

For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead“.

  • Crypto
  • Macro
    • March 25, 8:30 a.m.: U.S. Import Prices MoM for February est. 0.2% (Prev. 0.2%); Export Prices MoM (Prev. 0.6%)
  • Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data)

Token Events

For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead“.

  • Governance votes & calls
  • Unlocks
    • March 25: Humanity (H) to unlock 4.19% of its circulating supply worth $10.1 million.
  • Token Launches

Conferences

For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead“.

Market Movements

  • BTC is up 2.21% from 4 p.m. ET Tuesday at $71,509.33 (24hrs: +0.68%)
  • ETH is up 2.99% at $2,184.78 (24hrs: +1.43%)
  • CoinDesk 20 is up 2.73% at 2,065.01 (24hrs: +0.93%)
  • Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is down 7 bps at 2.74%
  • BTC funding rate is at 0.0005% (0.4960% annualized) on Binance
CD20
  • DXY is down 0.15% at 99.29
  • Gold futures are up 3.13% at $4,536.90
  • Silver futures are up 4.38% at $72.31
  • Nikkei 225 closed up 2.87% at 53,749.62
  • Hang Seng closed up 1.09% at 25,335.95
  • FTSE 100 is up 0.85% at 10,049.44
  • Euro Stoxx 50 is up 1.39% at 5,658.96
  • DJIA closed on Tuesday down 0.18% at 46,124.06
  • S&P 500 closed down 0.37% at 6,556.37
  • Nasdaq Composite closed down 0.84% at 21,761.89
  • S&P/TSX Composite closed up 0.18% at 31,941.59
  • S&P Latin America 40 closed up 0.43% at 3,480.97
  • U.S. 10-Year Treasury rate is up 6 bps at 4.39%
  • E-mini S&P 500 futures are up 0.68% at 6,651.25
  • E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are up 0.86% at 24,422.75
  • E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 0.67% at 46,727.00

Bitcoin Stats

  • BTC Dominance: 58.97% (0.16%)
  • Ether-bitcoin ratio: 0.03055 (-0.04%)
  • Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 977 EH/s
  • Hashprice (spot): $33.72
  • Total fees: 2.5 BTC / $175,777
  • CME Futures Open Interest: 116,345 BTC
  • BTC priced in gold: 15.7 oz.
  • BTC vs gold market cap: 4.77%

Technical Analysis

Daily swings in the bitcoin-gold ratio in candlestick format. (TradingView)
Bitcoin-gold ratio. (TradingView)
  • The chart shows daily swings in the bitcoin-gold ratio since July last year.
  • The ratio has bounced 23% this month, signaling bitcoin’s outperformance relative to gold.
  • However, the broader bitcoin bear market is still intact and the ratio had yet to top the trendline representing the slide since August 2025.

Crypto Equities

  • Coinbase Global (COIN): closed on Tuesday at $181.04 (-9.76%), +2.94% at $186.36 in pre-market
  • MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $8.25 (-7.41%), +3.52% at $8.54
  • Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $14.33 (-0.28%), +2.72% at $14.72
  • Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $16.85 (+1.63%), +2.43% at $17.26
  • CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $9.58 (-4.01%), +2.61% at $9.83
  • Exodus Movement, Inc. (EXOD): closed at $7.20 (-11.33%), +6.39% at $7.66
  • CoinShares Bitcoin Mining ETF (WGMI): closed at $38.87 (-1.35%)
  • Circle Internet Group (CRCL): closed at $101.17 (-20.11%), +3.04% at $104.25
  • Bullish (BLSH): closed at $37.37 (-5.51%), +1.61% at $37.97

Crypto Treasury Companies

  • Strategy (MSTR): closed at $136.25 (-1.41%), +2.97% at $140.29
  • Sharplink (SBET): closed at $7.17 (-4.53%), +3.63% at $7.43
  • Galaxy Digital (GLXY): closed at $21.30 (-1.84%), +2.58% at $21.85
  • Strive Asset Management, LLC (ASST): closed at $9.93 (-4.89%), +2.01% at $10.13
  • Upexi (UPXI): closed at $1.11 (-5.13%), +2.70% at $1.14
  • Lite Strategy (LITS): closed at $1.20 (+1.69%)

ETF Flows

Spot BTC ETFs

  • Daily net flows: -$66.6 million
  • Cumulative net flows: $56.31 billion
  • Total BTC holdings ~1.29 million

Spot ETH ETFs

  • Daily net flows: -$40.7 million
  • Cumulative net flows: $11.7 billion
  • Total ETH holdings ~5.79 million

Source: Farside Investors

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Alphabet (GOOGL) Shares Fall to 2026 Low

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Alphabet (GOOGL) Shares Fall to 2026 Low

As the chart shows, Alphabet (GOOGL) shares have dropped to their lowest level of 2026, with trading closing well below the psychological $300 per share mark.

Why Have Alphabet (GOOGL) Shares Declined?

The bearish move is driven by a combination of factors, including:

→ Escalating geopolitical tensions. With the prospect of a prolonged US conflict with Iran becoming more relevant, market participants may be reducing exposure to risk assets, favouring stability instead. Technology stocks are particularly vulnerable in such an environment.

→ In March, it was reported that Alphabet plans to allocate $175–185 billion to AI infrastructure this year. These expenditures could weigh on profit margins, while a quick return on investment is far from guaranteed.

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In addition, media reports point to pressure from antitrust regulators, downward revisions to price targets by analysts, and share sales by GOOGL executives. Meanwhile, the chart and volume analysis highlight a significant shift in market sentiment.

Technical Analysis of GOOGL Shares

Note the price behaviour during periods of exceptionally high trading volumes. The arrows indicate:

→ A move above the $300 psychological level accompanied by a bullish gap — a sign of emotional buying momentum that gradually faded.

→ A sharp decline in February on very high volumes, suggesting that bears attempted to seize control. The formation of lower highs and lower lows confirms their success.

Yesterday, GOOGL opened with a bearish gap and closed at the low of a wide candle — a clear sign that sellers are strengthening their grip.

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Bulls need to regain control quickly; otherwise, if bearish dominance persists:

→ Alphabet (GOOGL) shares may continue to decline within the red descending channel;
→ The $300 level could act as psychological resistance during any recovery attempts;
→ A move towards the $250 level cannot be ruled out.

Buy and sell stocks of the world’s biggest publicly-listed companies with CFDs on FXOpen’s trading platform. Open your FXOpen account now or learn more about trading share CFDs with FXOpen.

This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

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Pump.fun Tightens Creator Fee Controls in New Update

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Pump.fun Tightens Creator Fee Controls in New Update

Memecoin launchpad Pump.fun introduced a new restriction on creator fee settings, limiting token deployers to a single post-launch change in how fees are distributed on the platform. 

In a post on X, Pump.fun co-founder Alon Cohen said the update aims to reduce “griefing” — where creators alter fee recipients after a token gains traction — and other forms of manipulation tied to fee redirection, where token creators can alter who receives fees after a coin gains traction. 

Under the change, each token will have one opportunity to redirect creator fees to a different wallet, after which the configuration becomes permanently locked. 

Pump.fun’s latest update follows a broader overhaul announced in January, when the platform acknowledged that its creator-fee model had skewed incentives by disproportionately rewarding token deployers over traders.

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Source: Alon Cohen

Pump.fun’s broader attempts to shift incentives to traders

On Jan. 10, the platform introduced changes like multi-wallet distribution and post-launch controls, aiming to improve transparency and better align rewards with trading activity. 

On Feb. 17, Pump.fun introduced “Cashback Coins,” requiring creators to choose at launch whether fees go to themselves or are redirected to traders, with that high-level model locked in once selected. 

The change aimed to rebalance the distribution of rewards between token deployers and traders. However, while the overall fee model was fixed at launch, creators or coin admins could still adjust the specific wallets receiving those fees and how they were distributed after a token went live.

Related: ‘Hawk Tuah’ girl Haliey Welch says memecoin implosion ‘traumatized’ her

This meant that even if the model didn’t change, the underlying recipients could, creating potential trust issues for traders. The latest update narrows that flexibility by allowing only a single post-launch change to fee recipients, after which the configuration is permanently locked.

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Early community reactions suggest the change may do little to address broader trading dynamics on the platform. X user gake said the change might not help much, while another user, tom, described it as a “drop in the bucket” that shows the team is at least acknowledging the issue.

Pump.fun activity drops as fees and volume fall year over year

Pump.fun’s shift in its incentive structure comes as its fees have declined from their peak. DefiLlama data shows that in January 2026, the platform recorded $31.8 million in fees, down about 75% from $148 million in January 2025, its best-performing month to date.

In February 2026, the platform recorded $25 million in revenue, down 66% from nearly $75 million in February 2025.

Pump.fun’s monthly revenue chart. Source: DefiLlama

The platform’s trading volume has followed a similar pattern. According to DefiLlama, Pump.fun recorded monthly volume of over $11.6 billion in January 2025, which fell to about $2.1 billion in January 2026, a decline of roughly 81%.

In February 2026, monthly volume totaled about $1.91 billion, down 68% from $6.1 billion in February 2025.

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