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Citi says stablecoin rewards restrictions could slow Circle’s USDC, not stop it

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Circle (CRCL) may rally another 60% driven by stablecoin adoption, AI agentic finance: Bernstein

Wall Street bank Citi says proposed limits on stablecoin rewards in the latest draft of U.S. market structure legislation would be a setback for Circle (CRCL) but not a fundamental threat to the investment case.

“We view this development potentially (but not necessarily) as a scaling setback, but not a thesis killer,” wrote analysts led by Peter Christiansen in the Tuesday report.

The draft bill allows narrowly defined rewards programs as long as they don’t resemble bank deposit interest, the analysts said. A broader ban on third-party rewards would not directly affect Circle’s net revenue, as the firm already passes most of its reserve income to distribution partners like Coinbase (COIN).

Still, the analysts expect weaker incentives to hold USDC, which they characterize as a payment instrument rather than a security, could temporarily reduce circulation and secondary-market liquidity. “We still maintain the view that stablecoin volume is the key indicator of adoption, not circulation.”

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Citi has a high risk rating on Circle stock with a $243 price target. The shares were trading around $100 at the time of publication.

Circle shares fell roughly 20% on Tuesday, after a draft of the U.S. Clarity Act raised the prospect of banning yield on passive stablecoin balances, sparking concerns about the attractiveness of yield-bearing crypto products.

The move was compounded by broader investor anxiety around how the rules could impact stablecoin-related revenues and incentives, alongside fresh competitive pressure after Tether signaled plans for a full Big Four audit and potential U.S. expansion.

The Circle selloff on Tuesday reflected a market misread of the draft Clarity Act, according to Wall Street broker Bernstein.

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Investors are conflating who earns yield with who distributes it, the broker said in a Wednesday report. Circle earns reserve income from USDC backing assets, while platforms like Coinbase (COIN) pass some of that yield to users, the actual target of the proposed rules.

The draft would ban yield on passive stablecoin balances but allow activity-based rewards tied to trading or payments. Bernstein analysts led by Gautam Chhugani said this pressure on Coinbase’s ~3.5% USDC yield product, likely forcing a restructure. Circle’s model remains unaffected. The firm does not pay yield to holders and generated $2.64 billion in reserve income in FY2025.

The report noted that USDC growth, from ~$30 billion to $80 billion in two years, is driven by trading, payments and collateral demand, not yield.

Bernstein has an outperform rating on Circle shares with a $190 price target.

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Coinbase is treading carefully in negotiations over the Clarity Act, privately signaling to Senate staff that it is dissatisfied with the latest compromise while stopping short of publicly opposing the bill, according to people familiar with the matter.

Read more: Circle selloff may be overdone as crypto bill weakens Coinbase edge, say analysts

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White House launches app with policy updates, curated news and ICE tip link

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Tim Scott signals progress on stablecoin yield dispute holding up crypto bill

The White House on Friday launched a smartphone app that gives users direct access to administration updates, social posts, photos and policy pages tied to President Donald Trump’s second term. 

Summary

  • White House app offers policy pages, curated news, social feeds, media tools and contact options.
  • Users can send tips to ICE while viewing affordability claims and border-focused administration messaging sections.
  • The app promised live video, but Trump’s Friday remarks were not streamed in real time.

The administration said the app would deliver information “straight from the source, no filter” after several teaser videos on official social media accounts pointed to a coming launch.

The White House said the app offers breaking news alerts, live video, a media library and direct feedback tools. In its release, the administration described the product as a way to keep users informed and engaged with the Trump administration through real-time updates and push notifications.

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The rollout followed a short teaser campaign on social media that drew public attention before the launch. People reported that one video showed a woman asking whether something was “launching soon,” while a White House spokesperson later replied, “I wonder what’s launching soon!” before the app went live.

The app includes tabs for news, livestreams, social feeds and photo galleries. The Verge reported that much of the content mirrors existing White House web pages rather than adding a separate service built only for the app.

Coverage of the launch also said the app directs users to policy and achievements pages that were already live on the White House website. Daily Voice reported that the product also pulls in curated news coverage and material focused on Trump’s policy priorities and record in office.

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A “Get in Touch” option in the social section includes a path for users to submit tips to U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement through the agency’s official form. The same menu also offers options to text the president, contact the White House and sign up for a newsletter.

The app also includes an affordability page built around selected consumer prices. Daily Voice reported that the section uses a limited set of grocery items and leaves out other goods and energy costs that have moved higher, while another border page states that “0 Illegals Released in Past 10 Months.”

Some promised features were not visible at launch

The White House release said users would be able to watch speeches and briefings as they happen. Yet Daily Voice reported that Trump’s Friday remarks to farmers at the White House were not available in real time on the app during the afternoon event.

The launch came as the administration continued to frame rising costs as temporary. Daily Voice reported that Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent described recent price pressure as “short-term volatility,” while the app itself focused on selected price declines and investment pledges from foreign governments and large companies.

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Coinbase Crypto-Backed Down Payments Push Digital Assets Into U.S. Housing

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Brian Armstrong's Bold Prediction: AI Agents Will Soon Dominate Global Financial

TLDR:

  • Coinbase now lets buyers use BTC or USDC as down payment collateral without selling crypto holdings first.
  • Better services the crypto loan separately while the main mortgage stays within standard Fannie Mae rules.
  • No margin calls apply if borrowers stay current, even during sharp Bitcoin price declines.
  • Rising home costs make crypto-backed liquidity a new route for buyers locked out by cash requirements.

Coinbase is moving deeper into consumer finance with a new product that lets U.S. homebuyers use crypto as down payment collateral. 

The company has partnered with Better Home & Finance to offer separate loans backed by Bitcoin or USDC held in Coinbase accounts. The structure allows buyers to keep their digital assets while securing funds for one of the costliest parts of a home purchase. 

The rollout marks one of the clearest attempts yet to connect crypto wealth with the traditional mortgage market.

Coinbase Crypto-Backed Down Payments Enter Housing Finance

A buyer can now borrow against Bitcoin or USDC for a home down payment instead of liquidating holdings. Better will originate and service the loan, while the main mortgage remains separate.

The mortgage itself still follows the standard Fannie Mae-backed structure described in the Reuters report. That means the crypto-backed portion sits alongside, rather than inside, the primary home loan.

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According to Reuters, the arrangement aims to preserve crypto exposure for buyers who expect long-term upside. It also allows them to delay taxable sale events tied to liquidating digital assets.

Coinbase said the product keeps the same legal protections as a conventional mortgage process. The company also noted that the mortgage rate itself does not change once the loan becomes active.

Reuters further reported that pledged crypto price swings will not trigger margin calls. As long as borrowers continue payments, falling Bitcoin prices alone will not force liquidation.

Crypto Utility Expands as Homeownership Costs Rise

The launch lands as homeownership remains difficult for first-time buyers. Reuters cited National Association of Realtors data showing the median first-time buyer age has climbed to 40 from 32 in 2000.

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Higher rates, limited inventory, and elevated home prices have tightened access across the U.S. housing market. This backdrop gives crypto-rich buyers another way to unlock liquidity without leaving the market.

Coinbase framed the product as a practical use case for digital assets beyond trading and custody. Reuters noted the company sees it as a way to widen access for users whose wealth sits in crypto rather than bank accounts.

The policy backdrop also matters. Reuters linked the move to a more crypto-friendly U.S. regulatory environment that has recently lowered barriers around mainstream financial products.

The report also tied that shift to broader Washington efforts to expand alternative investments, including crypto, into retirement products. That easing has helped firms explore new bridges between digital assets and legacy finance.

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Bitcoin Recovery Time Extends If Selloff Deepens Below $60K

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Cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin Price, Bitcoin Analysis, Adoption, Markets, Price Analysis, Market Analysis, Whale, Bitcoin Adoption

Bitcoin (BTC) has shed all its March gains, currently down 1.40% on the monthly chart and 24.6% for the first quarter of 2026. Bitcoin’s longer-term performance aligns with a deep drawdown cycle for BTC, which may extend until the end of 2026 and many analysts expect another 40% drop in price.

This scenario pushes Bitcoin’s recovery into Q2 2027, as a deeper BTC price drop tends to take longer to recover from.

Bitcoin drawdown depth extends the recovery timeline

Ecoinometrics data shows a clear link between the drawdown depth and recovery duration. Each additional 10% decline has historically added about 80 days to the time required to reclaim the prior highs.

At the current 48% drawdown, the full recovery cycle is estimated to be near 300 days from the October peak of $126,000 in 2025. 

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Cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin Price, Bitcoin Analysis, Adoption, Markets, Price Analysis, Market Analysis, Whale, Bitcoin Adoption
Bitcoin drawdown analysis based on correction depth. Source: Ecoinometrics

Currently, roughly 172 days have passed, leaving about 125 to 130 days if the cycle low is already confirmed at $60,000. However, the cycle lows might not have been tagged yet, with BTC potentially looking at further downside in the coming weeks. 

The Bitcoin Combined Market Index (BCMI), which combines market-value to realized-value (MVRV), net unrealized profit/loss (NUPL), spent output profit ratio (SOPR) and market sentiment, currently sits near 0.27.

This level is notably above the 0.15 threshold that has marked the cycle bottoms in every major downturn since 2018.

Cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin Price, Bitcoin Analysis, Adoption, Markets, Price Analysis, Market Analysis, Whale, Bitcoin Adoption
Bitcoin Combined Market Index. Source: CryptoQuant

In the 2018 cycle, BCMI reached 0.15 as Bitcoin fell to $3,100 from its $20,000 peak. In 2020, the index dropped to 0.147 when the price was $5,100. Similarly, in November 2022, BCMI fell to 0.12 as BTC formed its cycle lows at $15,880.

With the index still elevated relative to these historical bottom zones, a move toward 0.15 in 2026 likely requires further downside in BTC’s price. Such a scenario aligns with a deeper capitulation phase for BTC, consistent with the prior cycle resets.

Related: Bitcoin dips under $66K as oil sparks ‘unsustainable’ US inflation risk

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Deeper BTC lows extend the recovery window to Q2 2027

Crypto trader Ardi noted that the whale delta vs retail delta reached its most aggressive sell level at -22.13 since October 2024. The chart illustrates the BTC price breaking below a rising trendline, while underlying flows show consistent distribution from the larger participants. Ardi said,

“Larger players are selling into this structure harder than they have in 18 months. That does not mean price has to collapse immediately. But it does mean this level is being tested with real sell pressure pressing into it.”

Cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin Price, Bitcoin Analysis, Adoption, Markets, Price Analysis, Market Analysis, Whale, Bitcoin Adoption
Bitcoin price, whale vs retail delta. Source: X

From a liquidity standpoint, CMCC Crest managing partner Willy Woo outlined a similar weakness for BTC’s price. Woo accurately mapped out last month that BTC would rebound to the mid-$70,000 region in March, before aligning with the bearish trend as “the broader regime is heavily bearish with both spot and futures liquidity deteriorating.”

From a cycle perspective, Woo expects a deeper reset before a confirmed bottom forms. Woo identified the $40,000–$45,000 range as a typical bear market floor, with timing skewed toward Q4 for the end of the bearish phase.

The framework places the return of a stronger bullish momentum into early 2027.

Cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin Price, Bitcoin Analysis, Adoption, Markets, Price Analysis, Market Analysis, Whale, Bitcoin Adoption
Bitcoin flow model by Willy Woo. Source: X

If Bitcoin extends its decline toward the $40,000–$45,000 range, the drawdown from the $126,000 peak deepens to roughly 64–68% from all-time highs. Based on Ecoinometrics’ model, the additional downside significantly stretches the recovery timeline.

At a 60%+ drawdown, the total recovery period historically expands to around 440 days from the cycle peak. In this scenario, a potential reclaim of the prior all-time high is expected to fall sometime after Q2 2027.

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It is important to note that these timelines are based on historical drawdown patterns and do not represent predictions. The current macroeconomic conditions may alter that recovery path as well.

The Kobeissi Letter noted that the rate cuts are now expected only by December 2027, with a 51% chance of a rate hike by March 2027. This unexpected development may impact Bitcoin’s recovery pace relative to past cycles.

Related: Bitcoin gained 655% the last time this supply in profit metric dropped to 50%