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Citi says stablecoin rewards restrictions could slow Circle’s USDC, not stop it

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Circle (CRCL) may rally another 60% driven by stablecoin adoption, AI agentic finance: Bernstein

Wall Street bank Citi says proposed limits on stablecoin rewards in the latest draft of U.S. market structure legislation would be a setback for Circle (CRCL) but not a fundamental threat to the investment case.

“We view this development potentially (but not necessarily) as a scaling setback, but not a thesis killer,” wrote analysts led by Peter Christiansen in the Tuesday report.

The draft bill allows narrowly defined rewards programs as long as they don’t resemble bank deposit interest, the analysts said. A broader ban on third-party rewards would not directly affect Circle’s net revenue, as the firm already passes most of its reserve income to distribution partners like Coinbase (COIN).

Still, the analysts expect weaker incentives to hold USDC, which they characterize as a payment instrument rather than a security, could temporarily reduce circulation and secondary-market liquidity. “We still maintain the view that stablecoin volume is the key indicator of adoption, not circulation.”

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Citi has a high risk rating on Circle stock with a $243 price target. The shares were trading around $100 at the time of publication.

Circle shares fell roughly 20% on Tuesday, after a draft of the U.S. Clarity Act raised the prospect of banning yield on passive stablecoin balances, sparking concerns about the attractiveness of yield-bearing crypto products.

The move was compounded by broader investor anxiety around how the rules could impact stablecoin-related revenues and incentives, alongside fresh competitive pressure after Tether signaled plans for a full Big Four audit and potential U.S. expansion.

The Circle selloff on Tuesday reflected a market misread of the draft Clarity Act, according to Wall Street broker Bernstein.

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Investors are conflating who earns yield with who distributes it, the broker said in a Wednesday report. Circle earns reserve income from USDC backing assets, while platforms like Coinbase (COIN) pass some of that yield to users, the actual target of the proposed rules.

The draft would ban yield on passive stablecoin balances but allow activity-based rewards tied to trading or payments. Bernstein analysts led by Gautam Chhugani said this pressure on Coinbase’s ~3.5% USDC yield product, likely forcing a restructure. Circle’s model remains unaffected. The firm does not pay yield to holders and generated $2.64 billion in reserve income in FY2025.

The report noted that USDC growth, from ~$30 billion to $80 billion in two years, is driven by trading, payments and collateral demand, not yield.

Bernstein has an outperform rating on Circle shares with a $190 price target.

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Coinbase is treading carefully in negotiations over the Clarity Act, privately signaling to Senate staff that it is dissatisfied with the latest compromise while stopping short of publicly opposing the bill, according to people familiar with the matter.

Read more: Circle selloff may be overdone as crypto bill weakens Coinbase edge, say analysts

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Crypto World

Circle Hit With Class Action Suit Over $280M Drift Hack

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Circle Hit With Class Action Suit Over $280M Drift Hack

Circle Internet Group is facing a class action lawsuit led by a Drift Protocol investor claiming it failed to freeze funds stolen in a $280 million exploit of the protocol on April 1.

The lawsuit was filed by Drift investor Joshua McCollum on behalf of over 100 members in a US district court in Massachusetts on Wednesday, which accused Circle of allowing the attackers to transfer about $230 million worth of USDC (USDC) from Solana to Ethereum via Circle’s Cross-Chain Transfer Protocol (CCTP) over several hours without intervention.

“Circle permitted this criminal use of its technology and services,” attorneys representing McCollum wrote, adding: “These losses would not have occurred, or would have been substantially reduced, had Circle taken timely action.”

The suit accuses Circle of aiding and abetting conversion as well as negligence. Mira Gibb, the law firm representing McCollum and other Drift investors, is seeking damages, with the final amount to be determined at trial.

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The case touches on a legal grey area around crypto companies that retain control over user funds. While such companies may have the technical ability to intervene or freeze assets, they often cite regulatory constraints or the lack of immediate legal authority as reasons for inaction — leaving accountability unclear as exploits unfold in real-time.

Source: James Seyffart

McCollum’s lawyers pointed out that Circle froze 16 USDC wallets in connection with a sealed US civil case about a week before the Drift incident to argue that Circle had the technical capacity to do the same.

Cointelegraph reached out to Circle for comment, but didn’t receive an immediate response.

Crypto analytics firm Elliptic suspected the exploit was committed by North Korean state-backed hackers, who made over 100 transactions via Circle’s bridging technology during US working hours, where the stablecoin company is based.

Related: Ukraine arrests FBI-wanted cybercrime suspect, seizes $11M in assets

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The funds were converted into Ether (ETH) and sent through the Tornado Cash privacy protocol to launder the proceeds and obscure the trail.

Circle was put in a lose-lose position: ARK Invest

While Circle faced backlash for the inaction, ARK Invest’s director of research for digital assets, Lorenzo Valente, argued on Thursday that it made the right decision, arguing that freezing funds without a legal order opens the door for arbitrary discretion.

“Every future freeze is now a judgment call. Every non-freeze is a political statement. Why freeze the Drift hacker but not that sketchy Nigerian fraud wallet? Why this protester but not that one?”

While Valente sided with Circle’s decision, he speculated that the stolen funds will likely fund North Korea’s nuclear weapons program:

“Whether Circle got it right comes down to how much you weigh rule-of-law principles vs concrete harm. Reasonable people disagree.”

Magazine: Are DeFi devs liable for the illegal activity of others on their platforms?

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