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F&O Talk | Sudeep Shah on why cash market trades better versus derivatives, for now. Strategy on HEG, IDBI, 4 more stocks
With just one more session to go in March, Nifty so far has plunged over 9% this month
Fear index India VIX settled at 26.80 on the NSE in the last session, up by 8.77%.
Analyst Sudeep Shah, Vice President and Head of Technical & Derivatives Research at SBI Securities, interacted with ETMarkets regarding the outlook for the Nifty and Bank Nifty, as well as an index strategy for the upcoming week. The following are the edited excerpts from his chat:
Q: The Israel-Iran war flipped the overall script in March which is seasonally a strong month as Nifty is down nearly 9%. Based on the F&O rollover data, what is your expectation for April?
Since the onset of the US–Iran war–led sell-off, one recurring pattern has consistently emerged in the markets. Short-lived pullbacks lasting 2–3 trading sessions have repeatedly been followed by sharp gap-down openings. Each of these brief rebounds has lured traders into a false sense of recovery, triggering FOMO-driven participation under the assumption that the worst is over. However, these pullbacks have consistently failed to sustain, and the optimism has quickly given way to fresh rounds of aggressive selling, often materializing as large gap-downs over the subsequent 2–3 trading sessions, making one question whether the next bounce is an opportunity or just another trap waiting to unfold.
This repetitive cycle of hope followed by sudden downside shocks is not only increasing volatility but is also leading to significant wealth erosion, particularly for short-term traders and leveraged positions. The inability of the market to build on pullbacks highlights the fragile sentiment and reinforces the need for caution, discipline, and risk management in the current environment because when conviction is missing, even small triggers can lead to disproportionately large reactions.
Month-to-date, the benchmark index Nifty has declined by over 9%, marking its steepest monthly fall since the Covid 19–induced market collapse. At the same time, disruptions in global gas supply are creating a diverse set of challenges across multiple industries, particularly those dependent on energy-intensive operations. These supply constraints have led to rising cost pressures, uncertainty around margins, and delayed investment decisions. Collectively, these factors are dampening hopes of an earnings revival and eroding overall market confidence, further weighing on investor sentiment and risk appetite—raising a deeper concern about whether the worst of the earnings downgrades is still ahead.
From a technical perspective, there has been no change since last week. The index continues to trade below its key moving averages, while momentum indicators remain firmly in bearish territory, indicating that downside pressure persists. Interestingly, the Nifty Midcap 100 and Nifty Smallcap 100 indices are displaying relative outperformance compared to the frontline indices. However, given the prevailing volatility and fragile sentiment, price action in the mid and smallcap space over the next 2–3 weeks to assess the sustainability of this relative strength because history suggests that leadership often shifts just when confidence starts to build.
Talking about crucial levels, the 22,650–22,600 zone is expected to act as an important support area for Nifty. A sustained break below 22600 could open the door for further downside, potentially dragging the index towards 22,400, followed by 22,200 in the short term. On the upside, the 23150–23200 region is likely to remain a critical resistance zone.
Q: Banks have been bleeding primarily because of FII outflows. Can you spot trading opportunities in Bank Nifty (or bank stocks) or at least suggest traders ways to cut their losses if more selling continues?
The banking benchmark index Bank Nifty has significantly underperformed the frontline indices during March. Month to date, the index is down by over 13% and has formed a sizeable bearish candle, highlighting strong selling pressure at higher levels. The ratio chart of the index as compared to Nifty is marking the sequence of lower tops and lower bottoms.
The weakness is further evident from the fact that the index is currently trading nearly 8% below its 200-day EMA and around 9% below its 100-day EMA, underscoring the loss of medium- to long-term trend support. From a momentum standpoint, the daily RSI has entered a super bearish zone as per RSI range shift rules, while the weekly RSI remains in bearish territory and continues to decline, indicating sustained downside momentum across timeframes.
Given the current price structure and negative momentum setup, the index is likely to extend its southward trajectory in the short term. In terms of key levels, the 51,700–51,800 zone is expected to act as an immediate support area. A sustained breakdown below 51,800 could result in further correction towards 51000, followed by 50,400 in the near term.
On the upside, any recovery attempt is likely to face strong resistance in the 53400–53500 zone, which will act as a major hurdle and supply area for the index.
Q: There is a bloodbath across situation and with Iran-Israel war uncertainty, it is very difficult to take an informed call. In such a situation, are you seeing themes/pockets of opportunities for investors?
The Nifty CPSE index is displaying relative outperformance compared to the broader and frontline indices. While the index has not shown strong bullish momentum, it is currently moving in a consolidation phase, even as the broader market undergoes a corrective decline. This relative resilience suggests better stability and selective accumulation, positioning Nifty CPSE as a comparatively stronger pocket amid an otherwise weak market environment.
Q: Unlike 2025, investors had a refuge in gold and silver and were putting money there. That situation has changed dramatically as we see bullion prices falling sharply. What will be your advice to investors whether to remain invested or preserve cash?
Market’s lackluster performance can be attributed to Nifty Bank, which has delivered its third worst performance in March in the past 20 years, declining by nearly 11%. What do bank Nifty charts suggest and how to trade?
Yes, the market’s lackluster performance has largely been driven by Bank Nifty, which has corrected by nearly 13%. This sharp underperformance has exerted significant pressure on the broader indices and weakened overall market sentiment.
Chart patterns of Bank Nifty continue to reflect a weak and bearish structure, indicating limited scope for a sustainable recovery in the near term. Given the prevailing trend and momentum setup, we recommend adopting a “sell on rise” strategy, as any short-term pullbacks are likely to remain corrective and may attract fresh selling pressure.
Q: For risk-takers, volatility brings opportunities for making money. Will you prefer cash markets or F&O?
Volatility is a double-edged sword. It creates opportunity, but also amplifies risk. For a risk-taker, the goal isn’t just to chase swings, but to manage them effectively. In volatile markets, moves are sharp and fast. If you’re right, profits can come quickly; if you’re wrong, losses can escalate just as rapidly. This is where the choice between cash and F&O becomes crucial.
F&O is a leveraged product, so volatility acts as a multiplier. If a trade goes against you, it becomes a double whammy. Price movement and leverage work against your capital. Even the right view can go wrong due to timing or sudden reversals. In contrast, cash markets offer better control. With proper position sizing and risk management, you can use volatility to your advantage without the pressure of leverage.
In such phases, it’s wiser to focus on survival first, because volatility rewards discipline, but punishes over-leverage.
Q: HEG, Emcure and Triveni Engineering were among top gainers this week, while Firstcry, IDBI Bank and Lodha have been big losers. What should investors do with them?
HEG had briefly slipped below its previous swing low of 491 on the daily chart but quickly reclaimed those levels, followed by an impressive rebound supported by a sharp rise in volumes. The DI+ crossing above DI- on the ADX indicator suggests that buyers are gaining control over sellers. As long as the stock holds above the 520–515 zone, the pullback is likely to extend further.
Emcure has witnessed a horizontal trendline breakout on the daily chart. The RSI is trending higher and sustaining above 60, indicating strong bullish momentum. Additionally, the DI+ crossover reinforces the dominance of buyers. The uptrend is likely to continue as long as the stock trades above 1580.
Triveni Engineering has staged a strong rebound from its key support zone of 335–325. The MACD has crossed above the signal line, indicating improving momentum. However, the stock faces stiff resistance around 418–420. A decisive breakout above this zone could lead to an extension of the pullback.
FirstCry has been consolidating in the 252–207 range since 19th February. The RSI failed to cross the 60 mark and has drifted lower, suggesting weakening momentum. The MACD remains below both the signal and zero line, indicating a bearish bias. The stock is likely to remain under pressure as long as it trades below 250.
Both IDBI Bank and Lodha are trading significantly below their key short- and long-term moving averages. A rising ADX indicates a strengthening bearish trend, while the RSI hovering around 20 reflects strong downside momentum. 72 for IDBI Bank and 760 for Lodha act as immediate resistance levels, and as long as the stocks trade below these levels, the trend is likely to remain bearish.
(Disclaimer: The recommendations, suggestions, views, and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times.)
HONOLULU — Travelers inquiring about TSA wait times at Daniel K. Inouye International Airport (HNL) on Saturday, March 28, 2026, should anticipate standard security screening times averaging 20 to 35 minutes for most of the day, with peaks reaching up to 40 minutes during traditional morning and afternoon rushes, according to multiple real-time trackers.
As Hawaii’s primary international gateway and a key tourism hub, HNL continues to manage elevated passenger volumes during the ongoing spring break season, compounded by recent weather-related disruptions that have strained operations in recent weeks. While not experiencing the multi-hour delays reported at some mainland airports amid broader TSA challenges, officials recommend arriving at least 90 minutes before domestic flights and 150 to 180 minutes for international departures to account for check-in, bag drop and potential lines.
Live data from trackers such as Takeoff Timer, FlightQueue and OnAirParking showed standard security waits fluctuating between 21 and 35 minutes as of Saturday morning into early afternoon, with TSA PreCheck lanes clearing significantly faster, often in 5 to 11 minutes. Some reports indicated shorter lulls dropping to under 10 minutes midday, while early morning hours between 6 a.m. and 8 a.m. saw the day’s highest estimates around 37 to 41 minutes. Afternoon surges around 2 p.m. to 4 p.m. also trended higher in historical patterns.
The airport’s main checkpoints in Terminal 1, including CP 1B (Makai) and CP 3, operate from approximately 4:15 a.m. to 11:30 p.m., with dedicated TSA PreCheck available during core hours. Additional checkpoints open as needed to handle demand. Some lanes at certain checkpoints have been reported closed or limited, contributing to variable flows on busy days.
Hawaii’s Department of Transportation (HDOT) has highlighted two major daily checkpoint surges at HNL: around 6 a.m. and between 9 a.m. and noon, with a smaller bump in the early evening around 7 p.m. On peak spring travel days, waits have occasionally stretched toward 90 minutes or more during these windows, though Saturday’s conditions appeared more moderate based on current reports. Inter-island and mainland departures remain the heaviest traffic drivers.
Recent severe weather systems, including heavy rain and strong winds, have added pressure through flight delays and cancellations earlier in March, indirectly affecting security line predictability as passengers reschedule or adjust plans. Spring break demand has pushed U.S. airlines toward record volumes nationwide, with Hawaii remaining a popular destination for families and leisure travelers seeking sunshine and beaches.
TSA PreCheck and CLEAR members benefit substantially at HNL, with expedited lanes providing a noticeable advantage during busier periods. Enrollment in these programs is particularly recommended for frequent visitors to the islands. Mobile Passport Control is encouraged for eligible international arrivals to help expedite customs and border processing, which has averaged around 40 to 42 minutes in recent reports.
The MyTSA app remains one of the best tools for crowd-sourced, real-time updates from fellow travelers, though users should cross-reference with third-party sites like Takeoff Timer or the airport’s official resources. HDOT and airport operators urge checking conditions 30 to 60 minutes before heading to the terminal, as flows can shift with flight banks or unexpected events.
Amenities at Daniel K. Inouye International Airport help ease the experience for those with extra time. The open-air design features Hawaiian cultural elements, local dining options ranging from poke bowls and plate lunches to coffee shops, and shopping highlighting island artisans. Free Wi-Fi, charging stations and family areas are available post-security. The airport’s compact layout makes gate access relatively straightforward once through screening.
Broader TSA operations have faced nationwide scrutiny in March 2026 due to staffing pressures linked to a partial government shutdown affecting federal agencies. While HNL has not reported the extreme multi-hour lines seen at some continental U.S. hubs, the situation underscores the importance of preparation. TSA officers at busy airports have dealt with higher call-out rates, leading to adjusted lane openings.
For departing passengers today, early morning and midday flights warrant the most conservative arrival planning. Those with flights before 10 a.m. or during afternoon peaks should factor in potential 30-plus minute security times plus standard check-in and bag drop. International travelers, especially on long-haul routes, benefit from even earlier arrival to navigate any immigration or customs nuances on return legs.
Airport officials emphasize that supply remains stable and operations are prioritized for safety and efficiency. No widespread staffing shortages unique to HNL were highlighted in recent advisories, though general spring travel volume has increased strain across Hawaii’s airports, including Kahului on Maui.
Practical tips for smoother passage through HNL security include preparing for the 3-1-1 liquids rule, wearing easily removable shoes, and having ID and boarding passes readily accessible on a mobile device or in hand. Prohibited items can trigger secondary screening and extend wait times. Families with children or travelers needing assistance can request accommodations through TSA Cares in advance.
As spring break continues into early April, passenger numbers are expected to remain robust before tapering. The airport’s role as a major transpacific hub means it handles diverse traffic, from leisure tourists to business travelers and military personnel, all contributing to daily rhythms.
Looking ahead, infrastructure improvements and potential staffing adjustments could help stabilize flows in coming months. For now, the message from HDOT and TSA is consistent: build in buffer time, monitor real-time tools and practice patience amid the aloha spirit that defines Hawaii travel.
In summary, TSA wait times at Daniel K. Inouye International Airport on Saturday, March 28, 2026, are running in the moderate 20- to 35-minute range for standard screening, with PreCheck offering quicker options. While conditions are manageable compared to recent national peaks, spring travel volume and occasional weather echoes make early arrival the smartest strategy.
Travelers can stay updated via the MyTSA app, official airport website (airports.hawaii.gov/hnl), or trackers like FlightQueue and Takeoff Timer. Safe travels to all departing from or arriving at Honolulu today — and enjoy the islands’ beauty once through the checkpoint.
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Business
FIIs sell Indian equities worth Rs 1.14 lakh crore in March; 2026 outflow balloons to Rs 1.27 lakh crore
This has turned out to be the worst month so far, as foreign investors continue pulling out from their Indian investments amid the Iran-Israel war.
Commenting on the current trends, Dr. VK Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist, Geojit Investments said the weakness in global equity markets following the war in West Asia, the steady depreciation of the rupee, fears of decline in remittances from the Gulf region and concerns surrounding the impact of high crude price on India’s growth and corporate earnings contributed to the sustained selling by FPIs.
“It is important to understand that FPIs were sellers in other emerging markets, too, like Taiwan and South Korea. There is a risk-off trend in equity markets, globally after the war broke out in West Asia. The poor returns from India vis-a-vis other markets – both developed and emerging- during the last eighteen months is the principal reason for FPI’s indifference towards India. If their sustained selling strategy is to change, there should be an end to the hostilities in West Asia and decline in crude prices,” Vijayakumar said.
On Friday, FIIs sold domestic shares at Rs 4,367.30 crore while DIIs were net buyers at Rs 3,566.15 crore.
Indian frontline indices ended their two-session rally amid sharp cuts as a failure in the Iran-US negotiations dented the market mood. Elevated energy prices and a plunging rupee aggravated troubles for domestic investors. Amid high volatility, markets were mainly dragged by financials, auto and consumer stocks. Nifty settled at 22,819.60, falling by 486.85 points or 2.09% while the BSE Sensex closed at 73,583.22, declining 1,690.23 points or 2.25%.
FIIs in 2026
Foreign investors turned net buyers in February, buying shares worth Rs 22,615 crore in the domestic markets so far. In January, they sold Rs 35,962 crore worth of shares.
In 2025, the FIIs buying trends remained patchy, but the overall trend was bearish. They took Rs 1,66,286 crore from Indian markets as trade deal delay and premium valuations weighed on the sentiments.
(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of Economic Times)
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